kylesutherlandsmith45

kylesutherlandsmith45

I found this cup and handle pattern on the move index RSI by accident. I'm just curious to see if it plays out. I don't know if it makes any sense and probably someone will say it's a waste of time. Maybe, maybe not. If price is what you should follow and if the why and the wherefore don't matter and it's the ticket or the tape that is important as Livermore said...

kylesutherlandsmith45

There is something wrong with this picture. How can price make a higher high while RSI goes down? Price is in a rising wedge which is bearish. RSI is in a triangle type of pattern. I wanted to look at the possibility that gold might have a pullback of 15%. That would bring price back to around $1640 USD. This is an Elliot wave count that suggests a wave 5 down...

kylesutherlandsmith45

Here we are in the handle. It's playing out to perfection so far. My plan is to buy in to a bond volatility ETF as the handle reaches key levels as indicated by the horizontal lines. This will allow for a dollar cost averaged approach. So it's a long bond volatility play. If it plays out it could be huge. The handle alone is a move of about 30 from the current...

kylesutherlandsmith45

In 18 years RSI and OBV have not been this low. RSI around 35 and OBV negative 5 billion. That's 4 times lower than the normal lowest figure. Something happened after January 2022. A war started. A capital war? After the peak in January 2020 it's been all downhill since then. Will RSI and OBV find support here? Where is the bottom? Does the 40 year bull market in...

kylesutherlandsmith45

This is the most important and the most difficult thing to understand. In my humble opinion in order to figure out what is the highest probability it is necessary to eliminate noise. The yellow 5 period average seems to indicate that there is a wedge/ triangle pattern. The other possibility is a horizontal channel. Either way I think RSI on the USD will show the...

kylesutherlandsmith45

Just trying to figure out how to know if gold is really breaking out or breaking down as opposed to faking out. It looks like if both On Balance volume and Relative strength index are going up together or down together then price follows suit. If only one is moving up or down but it is not confirmed by the other one then it pays to wait and see which one is wrong....

kylesutherlandsmith45

If and or when gold breaks out I think it will be connected with RSI increasing above 57.63 on a horizontal line and the blue trend line marked here. This means that the next increase in gold price above current levels will indicate that a run up is going to happen. Follow the RSI. I think it will take many people by surprise when it occurs.

kylesutherlandsmith45

Expanding wedge or triangle pattern on the GBP vs the JPY with a butterfly 🦋 type of shape. The pattern seemed to begin with a year up on on balance volume and then a year down. Followed by 2 years up and 2 years down. Then three years up. Now you would think if the pattern holds it will begin a three year period down on OBV. It seems clear that this currency...

kylesutherlandsmith45

There's something going on here. RSI looks like it is heading up to test the upper high horizontal resistance. OBV has a weird increase in June to a higher level at the same time as there is a massive spike in volume. But price keeps going down in a falling wedge which is bullish. I say go long the 30 year if and when it breaks out of the wedge to the upside. It...

kylesutherlandsmith45

What is going on with USD vs Gold? There is divergence with price trending up while RSI trends down. My trade is to play the long game. If this pattern begins to show signs of being confirmed I recommend buying when it reaches the bottom of the next triangle on the xabcd pattern. This in effect means going short. Short means don't buy until it starts to go back up...

kylesutherlandsmith45

There is something going on with the currencies. The UK left the EU. Something has to give. The on balance volume is bouncing off a very low level but is it now in an uptrend? The red bars in the volume keep getting bigger. While the green bars are fairly flat. I think a decision is coming at the apex of the triangle. I think go short the British pound. If it...

kylesutherlandsmith45

Price is heading to 108.092 based on trend line analysis. RSI should head back to 43.43 and on balance volume should correct and go down to -172 million and is likely to head under negative 2 million I believe based on trend analysis. If price goes over 186.153 then this will be negated. If this happens then price could go up to 232.98. Thats the long-term...

kylesutherlandsmith45

Looking at the RSI and the On Balance volume for this relationship some key dates stand out. Since 1992 RSI has trended in an upwards channel. It also had a upwards wedge pattern that has broken to the upside. The channel looks more significant though. RSI tends to peak before the OBV. Sometime after 2004 OBV started to move off a rigid flatline. Since then it...

kylesutherlandsmith45

Arc patterns are very powerful and it looks to me like we have a potential set up here where the move index could be gearing up for a big move up. If the cup and handle plays out as expected it would indicate that the move index will go up once the handle forms fully, by about 30 to reach the expected target. This is drawn on the rain of the move index. The price...

kylesutherlandsmith45

I have noticed a divergence in RSI versus price on the SP 500. Price although in a down trend right now could potentially go back up and create a throw over top / blow off top similar to the 1929 top. The levels that I am watching to confirm or invalidate this thesis are 3379 on the S&P 500. The next level I think will occur if we go above the current all time...

kylesutherlandsmith45 Updated 

Everything about this works except for the finishing part. This says that the S&P will be at about 4412 sometime in the next 7 to 8 months. From this point it could be possible that this will be the next significant low and 5547 will be the next target. Its possible that it is being distorted by the large number of companies in the index. I will repeat the...

kylesutherlandsmith45 Updated 

This idea is a basic 3 peaks and domed house model. A= 20,000, B= 27,000, C= 23,200, D= 27,000, E= 22,000, F= 29,500, G= 19,800, H= 29,000, J= 26,000, K= 30,000, L= 30,000, M= 35,000, N= 36,500, P= 35,000, Q= 32,000, R= 31,000, S=17354 approximately. The calculation is as follows; F minus G=9700. N minus G=16,200. The swing over ratio = N minus G divided by F...

kylesutherlandsmith45

So the idea is based on a paired trade or what I think of as a hedged trade. Paired in that I am buying two things that I think may be correlated but both will not necessarily do well. If one does well the other may not do well and vice versa. My idea is to buy this solar energy etf as a hedge against all of the silver mining companies that I have perhaps...