liberatedstocktrader

liberatedstocktrader

Gold is widely perceived as the best safe haven for your capital as the stock market goes through a bear market correction or crash. But is this really true? For gold to be a good hedge it would need to move in the opposite direction (have a negative correlation) to the broad market index, in this case, the S&P500. Looking back 15 years we can see this is not...

liberatedstocktrader

With the current stock market collapse, inevitable parallels are drawn with previous stock market crashes. Each crash is unique in its own way, with different causes and different market and governmental responses. The Corona Crash is unique in that it is the most violent and volatile crash so far on record. So far it is not the biggest crash, nor of course the...

liberatedstocktrader

With our everyday lives being severely restricted, the new reality of a massive economic impact raises its ugly head. The ferocity of the market collapse makes this different from all other market crashes we have seen before. We have now entered target 3 and are about to wipe out 12 years of gains on the S&P500. Breaking down through the 2000 points support will...

liberatedstocktrader

With lockdowns spreading around the world almost a quickly as the virus, the new reality is a severe recession. Seeing China start to theoretically emerge from a state of emergency gives us hope. But I say theoretically because the expulsion of foreign journalists suggests the Chinese government has something to hide. We have now entered phase 2 of the crash...

liberatedstocktrader

The use of technical analysis can be extremely enlightening when trying to evaluate were a new bear market might end. I am currently in cash, and I am working on understanding where the value zone is for stocks. The value zone is the area where the supply and demand equations shifts from fear to greed. Right now, the market is in freefall and even the...

liberatedstocktrader

March 16th, 2020 - Pre Market Open Update Corona Crash - The US Wakes Up to a New Reality With lockdowns and quarantining spreading across the globe as quickly as COVID 19 there will undoubtedly be a severe economic impact as wealth as an impact on our society. With high profile sports stars, politicians and actors contracting the virus, the new reality is...

liberatedstocktrader

On a weekly chart, the VIX Volatility Index has surpassed the dotcom crash of 2000 and will in the next week probably surpass 2007/8. Contrary to what Marketwatch.com says, it is not yet higher than in 2008. But it soon will be. Extreme fear is gripping the markets. We shall survive, well probably 95% of us. Deepest respect and prayers go out to anyone...

liberatedstocktrader

Update from my post on 28th Feb, target 2 is achieved. The question is how low can it go? Back to 2015 levels, back to 2008? Probably. No amount of stimulus is going to make companies profitable again in the short term. The stimulus needs to target consumers, but if they cannot go out and spend it or it cannot be delivered then what? Depending on your...

liberatedstocktrader

The Corona virus is a big Marco economic issue. The Corona Virus is going to cause a significant dent in global output and trade. Infection rates are rising across the globe. Countries are taking measures to curb the spread, the next steps will be closing schools and those who can work from home will work from home. But huge swathes of the population who need to...

liberatedstocktrader

I have long known that the Nasdaq 100 out-performs all indices and benchmarks. In fact, during the completion of the liberatedstocktrader.com crash detector system which I refined over many years I have learned that the 20-year return of the NDX-100 is 604% (from 1998 to present), compare that to the S&P500 which netted only 200%. If you are going to buy and...

liberatedstocktrader

The attached chart of Netflix is showing all love and joy. An amazing 50% rally, which of course shows a huge spike in the oscillating indicators. Breakouts in RSI and CMF confirm the rally, but they would wouldn't they. Yet OBV is not confirming the rally. The rally, has been so good, that it has lead to 4 gap breakouts. In technical analysis they are...

liberatedstocktrader

Yes it was a great few days, and the easy money is saying to themselves yes, here is the turnaround, I need to get back in. Rushing to get back in without real confirmation is what makes you lose money. To be fair an inexperienced trader, might look at this weekly chart and say to themselves, "3 weeks of positive uptrend means the bull are back". But if you...

liberatedstocktrader

Of all the streaming services we have, Netflix is deemed uncancellable by my wife and daughter. As well as watching the shows it is also worth watching the stock. On this weekly chart, we can see Netflix has been pummeled and successfully completed the head and shoulders top as indicated in the chart. ( I flagged this in October) Also in the chart, you can see...

liberatedstocktrader

Breaking news, a world-famous Italian mathematician by the name of Fibonacci is suggesting there is more downside to the U.S. stock markets. Using Mr. Fibonacci's magic numbers, from the 2016 low on the SPY we see that the retracement fits very well mapping out the support levels if the market continues to tank. The 23% retracement of the last major trend is...

liberatedstocktrader

Out of the major indices, the Nasdaq 100 is the first to kick of the Bear Market Signal I use in my system. As you can see the signal is not 100% perfect, there were 3 false alarms since 2007, although they were at points where the market could have gone south. Looking at the Ichimoku Cloud, which I personally like as an indicator, the index has not passed...

liberatedstocktrader

Activision, especially subsidiary Blizzard make great games, so my son tells me. But their financials certainly are not to be played with. Short-term Trend - Down Medium-term Trend - Down Long-Term Trend - Up Price way below the Ichimoku Cloud Stock Market Crash Detector Indicator - RED If you are still holding onto ATVI it may be a year or two before you...

liberatedstocktrader

As the Federal Reserve continues to tighten monetary policy by hiking interest rates, we are seeing tremors in the stock market.  Sometimes tremors are the prelude to a full earthquake, but often not.  We are in our 11th year without an earthquake, but we sure have had a few tremors since then.  July 2011, July 2015, January 2016, Feb 2018 and of course now...

liberatedstocktrader

I am starting to be convinced that we may be back in the business of going long. On the back of the political developments in the U.S. there has been a large number of positive gaps, $PYPL, $AMZN, $GOOGL, $MSFT and both the Nasdaq 100 and the SP500 gapped higher today. This is a show of strength, bull are getting in on what they see as bargain prices. Combine...