liberatedstocktrader

liberatedstocktrader

Have you noticed that the best performing US index the Nasdaq 100 is correcting its explosive growth. The positive divergence (outperformance) of the NDX versus all other US indices is being corrected. The NDX is losing ground faster than the SP500 and DJ30 and the Nasdaq giants the FANGS (FB, AMZN, APPL, NFLX, GOOGL) are being punished also including Tesla,...

liberatedstocktrader

Over the past few days, I was actually starting to consider a move from cash to stocks, but my analysis told me that this mini-crash will not be solved in a few days. So I waited and took some short positions. Then this happens. At time of writing Apple's capitalization is down circa $60 billion. There is extreme fear in this market and nerves are all around....

liberatedstocktrader

The current panic in the stock market is fueling the rise of the conspiracy theorists, who fundamentally believe that moving to gold will safeguard their future when the bomb drops and they need to pay for fuel in gold coins. Unfortunately for them, this is never going to happen (or if it does I will be long gone). However, there is a sudden perk up in the...

liberatedstocktrader

The only question today is how much of a crash will we have to endure, or should I say profit from as traders? The problem is as a short seller, it is the toughest way to make money. The market goes up by default as there are millions of people working every day in these companies to add value and make profits and earn the money that feeds their families and...

liberatedstocktrader

Everyone is starting to panic about the next coming recession, even the Economist Magazine jumped on the bandwagon with an issue front cover showing "The Next Recession - How bad will it be". They claim it will be bad, and difficult to resolve because many of the tools of QE etc are already in use. It is fair comment and well written, but they did not mention the...

liberatedstocktrader

Everyone is starting to panic about the next coming recession, even the Economist Magazine jumped on the bandwagon with an issue front cover showing "The Next Recession - How bad will it be". They claim it will be bad, and difficult to resolve because many of the tools of QE etc are already in use. It is fair comment and well written, but they did not mention...

liberatedstocktrader

Here are some great text book gaps to observe in the netflix stock price. We can see the breakaway gap, the continuation gaps, exhaustion and island reversal gaps. But what does it all mean? Ultimately the gaps indicate strong sentiment and there is plenty of that with Netflix. I have Netflix at home, it is great, I love the service, the content and business...

liberatedstocktrader

Here you can see that drawing trendlines on a daily low plotted into the future can make a 5 to 10% difference in only a matter of months on your predictions. Always use the daily/weekly close price, because where the market closes is important. We have a nice rebound today but unfortunately, it is dying out into the close. Don't be fooled by the algo's,...

liberatedstocktrader

When the best companies falter it is a sign for the broader market. With negative divergences on the supporting indicators, price is proving the new short-term downturn. Supreme court shenanigans, Brexit or trade deal politics do not necessarily explain it. Interest rate hikes go some way towards it, but ultimately it is a traders market. Traders, Hedgefunds...

liberatedstocktrader

I love NVIDIA as a company and their future outlook. I really enjoyed the last year of owning them. But sometimes even a great relationship needs a break and I took that break last week. Divergent indicators are a first indicator that the relationship is getting tired. I definately see this relationship restarting, and I will be watching you (not like a...

liberatedstocktrader

While Amazon is a great company, no doubt, the technicals tell us that the short term trend is down. Buyers are just not that into you at these prices and PE. Negative divergences on the indicators and the "Stock Market Crash Detector" registering 2 days of Bear Market. I sold my holding of amazon last week, so will be waiting for a buyin over the next weeks,...

liberatedstocktrader

I sold my Netflix Positions last week based on the continued ramp up of shocking days (indicated on the chart) combined with negative divergences on the support indicators. Add to this the Head & Shoulders top forming on the medium term weekly chart and we see a picture of short to medium term violent decline. It is interesting how when you sell your stocks it...

liberatedstocktrader

With all plotted indicators still strongly negatively divergent, we should not forget that at the beginning of this year the index dropped 12% in 2 weeks. Incidentally, that was also from the all-time high for the index. Potential short term 7 mid-term retracement on the cards.

liberatedstocktrader

I have marked the potential downside support lines for the next bear move of the Rusell 2000 which @the_unwind spotted leading the pullback. There is, of course, nothing to stop a huge piece of macroeconomic news changing the direction to upwards continuation, but the technicals say otherwise. Markets are losing impetus at these levels.

liberatedstocktrader

Evaluating my position on Apple, I see in the price chart, a nice breakaway gap in the candles, a nice price recovery with a bullish engulfing pattern occurring on 24th of September. This is the day after a blowoff bottoming of price (see the large volume spike on 23rd September. Then price procedes nicely on a mini bull run. HOWEVER! Whilst the ROC indicator...

liberatedstocktrader

Whilst not being bearish at the moment, because the stock price is the most important indicator, one has to consider other indicators to get an understanding of the underlying flow of supply and demand. As a technical analyst, you are taught that you should use different indicators to be able to understand if the direction of the price trend is supported by the...

liberatedstocktrader

I am currently holding NVDA with a handsome profit, such a great company. But my system indicates severe divergences between price and the RSI / ROC. Both lower indicators are not confirming the move which is a concern. I am holding for now, but I have been warned. FYI Red Line below indicates a bear market, green indicates bull market, shock means a warning...

liberatedstocktrader

I ported my Liberated Stock Trader - Crash Detector System over to TradingView. Pine Script is great. This chart shows 12 years with weekly bars. Note how the system (red dots along the bottom) predicted the major 2007 crash. Green dots along the bottom indicate strong bull market. The Shock signal suggests increasing volatility and potentially stormy weather...