look4edge

look4edge

Idea based on simple linear channels and 2003-2008 analogy. Last leg seems to be in w4 just now, needs to complete w5 MOB level at 11k/10k8.

look4edge

Found interesting parallel channel in daily linear FDAX going from July09. If ema13 and 11850 would be broken and W4 would develop then there is a chance for correction up to 11600 or 11215 area, daily cci patterns are weak already.

look4edge

Dax at 12k2 touched trendline from 2009, see pic below. In this chart ew count has been applied - if currently the red W4 is developing, then: 11850 needs to go and most important bold green ew 2-4 trendline then correction targets would be retracement of w5 of red W3: 11600-11215-11k or W3 retracement at 11075. In daily picture, there is trendline running...

look4edge

This beast is sitting right at trendlines crossover, 11600/11700 zone and ema125 are crucial, dax needs to hold them to stay above if going higher, slow cci still positive. If the zone goes, then there is room to 11k/10800 with no harm to current uptrend, just a little breather, but can this thing now correct at all? Longterm superstrong, looks still not finished at 12k2.

look4edge

According to this chart, WTI bounced from longterm trendline. Break of it, along with AP line, would be huge event - could happen as well, of course. But unless broken, odds are supporting sideways outlook when it could take quite a long time to get to 65/70 area at median AP line (longer one) - slow CCI is much deeper than in 2007 (like in 1986), and price action...

look4edge

Cone just before termination, presumably break down. Needs to clear support TL, weekly pivot and ema34. Then way maybe towards 11k/10k800 without any harm to current uptrend.

look4edge

Longterm downtrend is obvious. Current range has narrowed to 47.75 - 51.25. Today`s reversal at 51.25 (weekly R1) could be significant for bearflag completion, CCI(s) are looking like ready to break down from their corrective patterns. NFP tomorrow could give resolution, break of weekly pivot could confirm downtrend continuation, then 47.5 needs to go. (i am...

look4edge

Price action at 1308 (strong supply area) and then swift reaction to Jan. NFP brought me to the idea, that 1308 maybe was excellent shorts reload opportunity and start of the w3 of W5. Downtrend is INTACT, now back BELOW yearly pivot, emas are falling and in standard downtrend constellation, fast CCI is about to break corrective pattern down, like at the end of...

look4edge

In 4h chart - above weekly pivot, ema13 above ema34 and slow cci climbed and holds above zero, daily doji at ema13. Looks like setup for possible 0.7850 breakup in bat formation - target 0.8030 or maybe 0.8220 Similar long in audcad is to be considered in regard to renewed oil slide.

look4edge

No follow through below 44 (yet), so some shorts took profits. Chance for retrace up to 56 area - poc of last downswing, where could meet supply. Need to break 48.75 by daily close, above 50 maybe more shortcovering.

look4edge

Simple linear chart, resistance trendline matched by recent top at weekly R1. Pullback to green support line around 10400, not below pink longterm trendline running from 1999, then up again, target derived from ew fibs around 11335. Anything below lower green support could mean breach of current bulltrend.

look4edge

Technical view, no QE speculations. SLV has reached: 200 DMA; resistance at 18.685; 61.8 retracement of last downleg. Downtrend is still intact, 200 dma still falling. Enough to enter short for pullback to 16 level, where could be decided if trend will proceed or reverse, but under yearly pivot the odds favor downtrend.

look4edge

These simple fibs have been working well so far, last remaining target is at 41.5. Today`s huge reversal and strong momentum give a decent chance for that.

look4edge

Bund has reached longterm resistance, also wave5 could be terminated around weekly R1. Below 154.5 could bund retrace to 152 area around ew 2-4 line, yearly R2, daily ema 125 and another longterm trendline from 1998.

look4edge

This time played with harmonic patterns and found a daily cypher pointing to 200 ema and hidden support trendline. At the end of month. Pattern itself should have about 70% success rate. 200 ema is another supportive argument, so at least retracement could be expected there. Maybe little lower, at D/XC closer to .786 and 250ema at 1925, see chart below

look4edge

DJTA is still holding uptrend and trendline from 2013 at 8770. If broken, then possible 5-0 pattern with target at 8480, around 34 weekly ema and monthly S2.

look4edge

According to this spread chart, current price relation OIL/SPX and price movement are nothing new, they resemble late 90`s - like many other things (e.g. dollar strength, biotech bubble = dotcom bubble, or check blogs.barrons.com) The peaks corelate with turning points in Gulf War and Iraq War. The bottom of the spread could be distant another 10% at minimum,...

look4edge

Here is weekly log spread chart BUND/DAX. Spread is SHORT, i selected LONG because i meant DAX. What i see there is, that spread is in downtrend, after resistance and long ema test 13/10/14. At monthly chart heavy downtrend. Recently occured rebreak of short ema down (unlike in trend reversals in 2001 and 2009 - green arrows), shortterm momentum broke down too....