lupas92

lupas92

We are in a strange epoch, at the moment all the US Bonds Yield break an historical trend-line that start in the 80'. Now it's approach a resistance, that in my opinion it'll break because the interest rate il still low, at the present 2.5% in comparison with an high inflation. Another consideration is about the volatility we can se in stock market and...

lupas92

Prevision for the future 2 year based on the old behaviour of the market. The history is ciclical, but every time it changes a little bit! See out the schemas

lupas92

Assumptions: - Taking into account 70s - Vertical line at the point where a recession start ( SPX500 start to retrace) and M2SL make new low When Bottom: - Interest rate start to decline, it's imply easy to borrow money, the stock growth quickly - Inflation start to decline In 2022 the market is in similar situation but not identical: - inflation may be at...

lupas92

Indicator under study: - M2SL (dollar supply) - SPX500 (standard & poor 500) - USINTR (interest rate) - USIRYY (inflation) Consideration on how the market could move: - M2SL Up - SPX500 Down - USINTR Up - USIRYY Up - Inflation should be at peak - Interest rate not at peak and the prevision tell they can double during the next month - The Fed...

lupas92

Assumptions: - Taking into account the last 20 year of history - Vertical line at the point where a recession start (SPX500 start to retrace) and M2SL make new low - The last 3 cycles last almost the same (6-7 years) Analysis: - The trend of M2SL/SPX500 inversely proportional to the price of SPX - M2SL/SPX500 approach a big resistance - In the last cycles M2SL...