About meCTA Manager and all technical analysis and chart outlooks are the opinion of Michael Agne the CTA Manager and are for educational and learning purposes and are not a recommendation to Buy, Sell or Initiate any futures position.
The US Government Treasury 5Y vs the US Government Treasury 30Y is now back above inverted levels and will continue this path as the FOMC hawkish rhetoric and major policy error will drive the US into a recession this year. It is in our opinion that this trade will move from inversion to +100bp as the FOMC pivots, equity markets falter and the FOMC stops their QT...
Crude Oil technically has closed the gap and has consolidated around the $41/$42 area. This seems quite healthy for an attempt higher.
***Educational purposes only and not a solicitation to invest. Trading commodities requires leverage and you should consult your professional advisor. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
With Gold clearly being outpaced by Silver since the lows in March, Magnelibra has decided that perhaps this ratio which is now sitting <80 may be in for a bit of consolidation work.
Not many trade the ultra bond because of its volatility, but our systems noted over extensions within the 225 area and we have now seen a pull back to the breakout point of 222. Interesting technical set up right now defined by our two trend channels.
The UltraBond Future leading the way today in fixed income futures. With equities outperforming over the last few months, its safe to say the bonds have held up pretty well. Now the long end, the Ultra Bond seems poised for a continued ascent bolstered by the 50eMA
3064 in the September Futures continues to magnet, with channel highs up at 3084 and a risk of a run below 3064 puts 3040 and EU session lows in perspective.
August Crude oil faltering below trend line here, bears in control for now. Risk off and a US Covid resurgence will be on the mind of traders this week. You can always read more at Econemotions.substack
US Govt 10yr yields below 65bp signals a chance to probe below 2020 channel lows at 58bp. This would seemingly coincide with an equity retreat. What magic wand will save the day and cause equities and yields to rally? Not Sure but 10yr yields are the thing to watch here.
We know that everyone is watching this level, some may be looking for a probe below fake out, others looking to pound it through and see if any buyers show. Regardless on the Daily this level is key and a settle below would open up further downside probes.
We pointed out 3064 this morning as our key level and once it broke the retest of the lower 3000 boundary ensued, seems like sideways to lower for now, until some other miraculous late day FED governor or someone announcing something to boost everyone's moral for the weekend!
Late day tape bombs of POMO schedule and more importantly FDIC loosening Volcker Rules brought SPs back above the 3064 level, but overnight saw a brief dip below. Its Magnelibra's Line in the Sand today!
3043 holds and FED releases POMO which which will see nearly $9bln in Bonds QE'd tomorrow! Was that the catalyst for the late day ramp into the clsoe? Free Money Friday?
50eMA lurking at 3084
Silver broke down before the Covid panic and now it seems to be setting up as a double top here on the daily. Below the 50eMA at $17.11 would open downside.
Crude Oil failed to close a gap above $42, and now rotating down and $36.36 is likely short term target here then support at the 50eMA down at $35.47 seems logical. Oil has come a long way and with the economy not out of the woods, skeptical here!
SP500 fell thru our important 3043 level on the EU open today. This opened the gates to further probes down and the Fib. level of .618 was hit at 3007, putting in a low down at 3005. The markets seemed to have hit the sweet spot as consistent bids have brought it right back up and now 3043 will act as our pivot. Above gets a little bully, below, opens up downside...
