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Despite Japanese 10 Year yields tripling in recent weeks, (Up from 0.02% to 0.06%) that increase is well below the rise in the Australian Ten Year Yields. As a result the "carry trade" gap between the two ten year year rates is increasing steadily and likely to continue to do so. All other things being equal should support further growth in the AUDJPY pair.

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This the month the price of Ether has rocketed. So too has Bitcoin's price, however Bitcoin has suffered a considerable retracement, which has not been the case for the Ether. Ether opened on January with a price of 738.60, while it is currently trading at around 1330, the price has peaked as high as 1475.8 - that's virtually a doubling of the price in 20 days of...

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Curve Steepening is alive and well as the basis point difference between the US 10-year bonds and the US 2-year bonds reaches its highest level since 2017. This largely due to the Fed purchasing of shorter term bonds every month as part of its QE program to support the economy. Expect this trend to continue as the Fed maintains its support and refrains from...

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Yesterday's Senate runoffs saw investors dump bonds across all countries as the market anticipated more US stimulus. This meant rising yields and the US 10 Year Bond which crossed 1% yesterday hit a high that it has not reached since 20 March 20. The question is whether they will continue to march higher or sink back down as they have previously have over the past...

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With one seat in the bag, and the other looking likely as Jon Ossoff has more than 16,000k votes ahead of his republican rival, control of the Senate looks to be heading democratic way. While this means a larger stimulus next year following Biden's inauguration, it also means more regulation and a repeal in least of part of Donald's Trump's tax cuts. Nevertheless...

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The NZ yields are sitting above a psychological level of 1% and have been flirting with this level for a couple of weeks. This is undoubtedly driving demand for the commodity currency, which has now hit 0.722 along with the general risk on mood that is pervading markets at year end. As we go into the European trading session of the year, the big question is will...

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Gold is once again rallying higher to test the 1900 level. This was level was tested early this week and rejected. Let's see if the reduction in the USD can push it higher this time.

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AUDJPY is widely regarded as the universal risk measure with the AUD seen as a risk currency while the JPY is seen as a safe haven. As a result the movements of this pair can be widely matched with the general risk on/risk off moods of the market. This month the $AU has gained strong traction thanks to a general risk on mood and also due to strong Iron Ore and...

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The traditional relationship between the Copper/Gold Ratio and US 10 year yields - which has proven sound over the longer term - is suggesting a potential up turn in US 10 Year Yields. One big caveat on this analysis is the Federal Reserve. Should Powell et al intervene at the longer end of the market, this will upset the ratio and send rates lower, even if demand...

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While CA, US, JP and AU yields have dropped in the general risk off mood across markets, NZ Yields have gone against the grain and in the "yield- off" between the AU and NZ 10 Year Yields, NZ has just edged past their pacific neighbour, with the 1% target in mind. The AUDUSD is still trading at around $1.07, however indications are that this may dive lower, as...

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Silver is having a great month up 14% since its open at $22.66. (Gold up 5.7%) Prices hit a high of $26.10 during last night's London session with a bit of profit taking today during Asia. US Congress is still promising a deal before month end and have said they will work over the weekend to get it done. This may further spike prices of the precious metal when it...

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As investors nervously await the outcome of the Stimulus talks, Brexit deals and the end of the year, investors are buying 10 Year Treasuries with a consequent drop in the 10 Year Yield. Although those of us following yields, generally expect them to rise over the long term, they are not yet ready to push over the 1% level. Thursday's FOMC meeting (Wednesday in...

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New Zealand 10 Year Bond Yields have fallen back to just over 0.900, limiting the upside for the Kiwi against the USD. Meanwhile the Aussie which has maintained 10 year yields over 1% is pushing to new highs at 0.7480.

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Iron Ore prices are at record levels pushing over $140 per tonne. While the two have been correlated during the Covid rebound, the recent spike has yet to be reflected in the AUDUSD, suggesting that the AUDUSD has some room to go higher.

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US yields tick upwards on expectations of improving economy next year, as vaccine rollouts progress and also a possible stimulus could happen before Christmas. Australian 10 Year Yields have just passed 1%, a new high since August 2020. If the positive news continues (holding breath for Jobs Report) than it is likely the US10Y will again test the 1% level in the...

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On the daily chart, Spot Gold has lost its inverse correlation with the Dollar Index (DXY). Gold has lost its correlation with the dollar before and this last can last for a few months. The historical notion that Gold will rise because the USD is falling is not a given. Gold can stay disconnected from the dollar for a few months at a time, especially if Treasury...

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Overnight selling off US Treasuries saw yields rise back over 0.900 heading towards 1%. The next two months could see as Covid become the leading cause of death of in the US. (Currently at 10,000 deaths per week versus Heart Attacks at 12,500 per week). Assuming no stimulus is agreed, we could see another round of Fed action in January especially if yields creep over 1%.

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NZ 10 Year yields have been soaring thanks to a more hawkish RBNZ which held rates at 0.25% when Australia lowered theirs to 0.10%. Talks of negative rates by Orr and other Bank members have dwindled. The impact is that NZ yields continue to climb and likely reach 1% before it's neighbours.