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July of 2016 the US 30 Year Treasury Yields (TYX) hit a multi decade low with bullish divergences on the monthly RSI and MACD Histogram. Recently the monthly MACD line has had a bullish cross-over while prices have broken above a declining trend-line from late 2013. This implies a bull market in US treasury rates that will last well into 2017. Minimum price...

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In my last post I noted possible Nasdaq resistance at the .786 retracement level and a declining trend-line. The Nasdaq moved beyond both implying more upside in the near term. The DJIA has the clearest wave count and appears to be near completion of a Elliott wave Ending Diagonal from the August 24, 2015 bottom. A Fibonacci 89 calendar days after the 8/15/16...

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My election call worked out better than my market call. While the votes were being counted stock futures plunged. On November 9th after Trump was declared winner - the cash market dropped for one minute before starting an all day rally. Near term there could be more rally up the declining trend line, and/or a .786 retrace of the Nasdaq decline from the high of...

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The Nasdaq has the clearest wave count of the main US stock indices and appears to require at least one more decline to complete the Elliott wave pattern. The highest probable count is a double zigzag down from the 9/22/16 peak. If the pattern is correct it will retrace to at least the 11/4/16 bottom at 5034.40. Early on 11/8/16 the Nasdaq could rally to the...

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On 11/4/16 the daily SPX Slow Stochastic and RSI reached the oversold zone. Also the SPX hit the 200 day Simple Moving Average which is a logical area for the bulls to defend. Tonight 11/6/16 in overnight futures the S&P 500 E-mini is up 25 points. There is a good chance the rally could continue into Tuesday 11/8/16 which is the US elections. The result of the...

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There was a chance today, 11/2/16 for the SPX and other main US stock indices to rally in to the FOMC announcement. Early in the day there was a failed attempt at a move above the late day bounce made on 11/1/16. After the FOMC the SPX made a new decline low and register significant bullish divergences on the 30 min RSI and MACD. Strong resistance is now at...

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There is a tight cluster of three Fibonacci points in the SPX 2119 -2120 area. 1) .236 retrace of the move 2193 to 2097 = 2120.50 2) .382 retrace of the move 2154 to 2097 = 2119.60 3) .618 retrace of the move 2133 to 2097 = 2119.80 This 2119 - 2120 zone is also prior support. FOMC announcement is at 2 PM ET on 11/2/16 if SPX rallies into 2119 - 2120 during...

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The Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) has the clearest wave count and appears to have completed a five wave pattern from the high at 5311 to the low at 5112. If the pattern is complete there will probably be a counter trend rally to the 5188 to 5200 area. 5188 = .382 of the move from 5311 to 5112. 5200 = .382 of the move from 5342 to 5112 There is...

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The Nasdaq 100 has been the strongest US stock index - so far it is the last index to hit a 2016 high. Yet even the strongest index is showing significant monthly bearish divergences. The monthly RSI has a triple bearish divergence vs. its November 2014 peak. The monthly MACD line and histogram also have significant bearish divergences. Seasonally September...

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The developing Elliott wave Horizontal Triangle from SPX 2175.30 appears to be nearing completion. The decline from 2154.80 - labeled "C" was very choppy and looks like a corrective wave. This decline also failed to break below important support at 2114.70. These to factors indicate that the drop from 2154.80 to 2119.40 is probably wave "D" of the Horizontal...

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The SPX Elliott wave Horizontal Triangle that began in late September appears to be nearing completion. Wave "E" could be complete on 10/26 or 10/27. Price target zone is SPX 2148 - 2152. After completion of the Horizontal Triangle the SPX could decline to the 1800 area by early November. Mark

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The SPX could complete wave "C" of a developing Elliott wave Horizontal triangle on 10/25/16. Wave "c" of "C" appears to be forming an Ending Diagonal Triangle. Resistance could come at the convergence of the rising and falling trend lines. Also today 10/24/16 the NDX made an all-time high that was unconfirmed by every US main and secondary stock index. It was...

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My last post "Updated SPX Shorting Targets" noted upside targets in the SPX 2153 and 2163 areas. While these targets are still valid there could be another course the SPX is taking. The SPX from the top made on 9/30/16 could be forming an Elliott nine wave Horizontal Triangle. If the count I have illustrated in this post is correct, then the top made on 10/21/16...

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My last post noted a potential shorting target in the SPX 2150 area. Today 10/20/16 the SPX declined and looks as if it is forming an Elliott wave Horizontal Triangle. If its complete at 2138.70 this would be the starting point for a post triangle trust up. Usually the thrust is equal to the widest part of the triangle which in this case is 24.60 adding this to...

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Illustrated is an alternate Elliott wave count with an impulse wave from 2175.30 to 2114.70. If this count is correct an A-B-C counter trend move could be nearing completion on 10/20/16 near SPX 2150. Mark

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For several weeks stocks have been chopping up and down, this could be about to end very soon. Today 10/18/16 the Nasdaq close was only 1.8% below its 2016 high yet only 41 Nasdaq stocks made new 52 week highs. In early September the Nasdaq recorded 240 stocks making new 52 weeks highs. Internal market breath has collapsed at the same time the Nasdaq appears to...

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The choppy action in the stock market could be coming to an end very soon. My prior posts have noted the SPX primary count from the 2/11/16 bottom is a truncated Ending Diagonal Triangle which counts as complete at the 9/22/16 peak. This is a super bearish wave count. Subsequent to the 9/22/16 top at 2180, the SPX has been declining in what looks like a series...

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In my last SPX post an Elliott wave Running Flat was illustrated as the completion to a counter trend rally. The bulls had a little life left in them to move up and invalidate that wave count, the larger developing bearish wave count has not been invalidated. Many Elliotticians will use single Zigzags as the sub waves for corrective patterns. Sometimes a market...