Commodity Index Monthly chart ... this looks very much like a breakout from a half-way-up the flagpole pattern.
The dotted line shows the resultant projection & suggests commodities to remain in a bullish uptrend thru to circa Nov/Dec 2026.
Chart clearly shows we've been at that sort of price level once before (2008) & what happened next.
This is my long-term Elliot Wave analysis of the Gold chart to show all of the possible Wave 3 price targets.
Wave 3's tend to form an identifiable upward channel ... this Bull will last until at least Jan 2026 but could extend until March 2034
We've had the initial Cup & Handle Pattern & subsequent breakout - exactly to the theory.
Now we've just seen an A,B,C retrace (W2) which was halted at the Cup & Handle breakout line for a fleeting Gap Fill.
This was also the 50% retrace level of the (W1) Impulse.
Should push on now (W3) with a target of $1.41
This is a much longer term, Weekly Candles, Chart on Gold to supplement my other short-term posts on the price action.
We can see that Gold is firmly in the long term uptrend channel and actually currently below the mid-line of that channel so, not 'over-bought' as far as I am concerned.
There is a clear long term 'Cup & Handle' pattern which gives a circa $2,600...
In this chart, I am zooming in for closer look at the chart over the last 26 months.
Jan 2021 was the peak of the first Major Wave 1 which ran from 2.5p to £1.825 & which consisted of a clear 1,2,3,4,5 pattern.
From Jan 2021 the Corrective Major Wave 2 then took hold and saw the price fall from £1.82 all the way back down to 62p on 13th October 2022 in a typical...
Updating my earlier TA on the Gold chart.
Following the Inverse Head & Shoulders set up, we now have an upside breakout from a Rising Wedge, arguably now a High & Tight Flag.
The $1,980 price target still stands.
We've seen a 1,2,3,4,5 step advance (Wave I) and then an a,b,c counter trend decline (Wave II).
Wave III now looks to be underway and has a target of circa 100p, based on EW theory and the metrics of Waves I & II thus far
This looks like an Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern, reversing the prior downtrend and giving a target price of circa $1,980
Have annotated the main pattern constituents to try and clarify my interpretation
Daily Candles.
LSE:TRT
A clear 1,2,3,4,5 Impulse Wave advance (Wave 1) followed by the Corrective A,B,C Zig-Zag (Wave 2) - Support was finally found at 78.6 retracement level.
Wave 3 now underway with a minimum £2 price target
Have used the Weekly Candles here due to the timeframe involved.
A clear 1,2,3,4,5 Impulse advance (that meets all the EW Rules) for Wave I
Corrective Wave II consists of an a,b,c Zig-Zag decline, that was halted at (4) of the previous wave (also meets all the EW Rules)
Wave III should now develop and, assuming 1.618*Wave I, that gives a target price of circa £3.50
