merchtank19

merchtank19

Finally bitcoin broke out of its consolidation/ down trend. it looks like we could get lucky and have a nice little pullback to the green box. If we are so lucky, buy with all you have. It may be the last time you see this price for a long time. When you see it next you probably wont want to touch Bitcoin with a 10 foot pole.

merchtank19

It is starting to look like we have entered a new trend on gold. Breaking out of the bullish trend, into a steeper one. The chart reminds me of the 1970's. Not the same but similar. 1970's US goes off the gold standard, money is now debt, USD becomes worthless when compared to gold (the time tested store of value that it is, of course) Money printer go...

merchtank19

See my DXY analysis for my full view on the performance on bitcoin (and other risk assets as well) -Summary- bullish like 2018 until end of year. -This chart pointing out time frames of past cycles, the over all market structure of bitcoins price, and the transformation of a bullish trend into the parabolic. (where I think we are now)

merchtank19

In the later stages of the liquidity cycle you have a devaluation of USD leading to bitcoin breaking out of its bullish trend into a parabolic trend. -Last 2 cycles this predictive correlation leaded bitcoins breakout by 4 to 6 months. -Current cycle DXY/Bitcoin charts look very similar to 2018 Taking this correlation into account, we could likely see the...

merchtank19 Updated 

I know its a mess, this is just for me anyway. I tend to overcomplicate things so now then, lets over simplify for my monkey brain: Trend line broken = Warning, thing are likely to change ( even though you didnt get the bull market you wanted) Watch said trend retest, look for weakness, struggling price action selling on the retest of the top lows last time would...

merchtank19

The market correction really seamed to be an over reaction. I am hopeful that the worst is behind us, at least for the meantime. maybe this will be closer to 2018 correction and we just keep grinding higher for the rest of the year. I suppose anything is possible. -Everyone got way to bearish to quick - Spidey senses going off! -we never copy and paste last...

merchtank19

I have been waiting to long for this to break out. it feels like this is about to finally send over the next 8 months or so. Last chance to load up for this potential 10X My buy and sell zones are clearly marked. but what I have painfully learned is that price is less important than time. I don't care what the price is at the end of the year, whether that be...

merchtank19

Until proven otherwise I must be under the assumption that the worst is behind us for the time being. That being said, more debasement is infinitely more likely than less, so long risk assets. -looking for a lovely retest of the broken downtrend, coinciding with a nice support level within the next 30 days. This has to be a buy for me (in the green box). -looking...

merchtank19

As much as I love BTC for a insurance policy against government debt, it is still subject to human nature. Fear and Greed. And with proxy exposure to the function of all financial markets, liquidity. I want to believe that we have seen the worst that is to come for now but at this point it feels like sticking my head in the sand. How can we not see a correction...

merchtank19

WARNING!!!! Chart may induce seizures I have some serious chart shame about this one but IDC my point is still valid (I moved my magic bold white line ) I think I'm calling it, Bitcoin bear over. as soon as the weekly moving averages started trending up @ the yellow arrows, despite all of what's going on in the world I turned bullish. I'm scared. Feelings...

merchtank19 Updated 

And update to one of my previous bitcoin cycle charts. I KNOW ITS VERY BUSY, I HAVE ADHD! (and my charts are for me anyways.. i know what i mean) Over simplification: Bitcoin bottoms Mid Jan 13 2015, Mid Dec 2018, so now it must bottom Mid Nov 2022 Bitcoin still only down 70%ish needs to go down >80%ish All this correlates with my magic thick white ...

merchtank19

Short term trading plan: Trade the possible range Red = Sell Blue = Neutral Green = Buy Overall market still very bearish Probabilities: SPX: New lower low = 80%, Test Lows = 15%, Lows are in = 5% Crypto: New lower low = 60%, Test Lows = 35%, Lows are in = 5% (This one is hard for me)

merchtank19

Channel? Lets see what happens, might be a good continuation channel

merchtank19

White vertical = RSI over bought >73 Green vertical = Spx market bottom I keep hearing all over," dxy is over bought, oil is falling, market recovery soon". Stumbled on this correlation, DXY/USOIL RSI >73 on the weekly = prelude to a market bottom since 2000. In all reality, this market is like none we have seen in decades so this time may very well not work...

merchtank19

-Build short position against BTC until options expire (June 30th) after this I expect downside to increase sharply -US markets look horrific & FED tightening cycle (FED hikes, high inflation (demand destruction), Bonds already tightened market, oh yeah.. and Quantitative tightening) To soon to call BTC bottom at $12,500 USD?? - 80% drawdown from Cycle top...

merchtank19

Everything down due to high inflation/ rate hikes/bond. Over extended market was no surprise from COVID. SPX down 20%, bull div on daily RIS, ready for a 10% relief bounce to a lower high. If I had to put a number on each potential outcome from my very limited experience: 10% chance we see full market recovery (2018) 20% The New Great Depression 20% similar to...

merchtank19

self explanatory

merchtank19

Drew this line as a half joke in april, becoming spookily accurate