mikezaccardi

mikezaccardi

Gold is up an even 10% year to date. The precious metal has frustrated bulls at times in 2023 but falling real interest rates over the past several weeks have undoubtedly been a boon. While it’s encouraging to see spot gold climb above the $2000 per ounce mark, I see potential upside in the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX). Notice in the chart that the portfolio of...

mikezaccardi

It’s that time of year. Equity markets are often quiet while bond traders are sometimes caught napping on the trading floor. Thanksgiving is historically quite bullish – Stephen Suttmeier at BofA points out that in all years going back to 1928, the S&P 500 has outperformed over this period (markets are closed Thursday, and Friday is an NYSE half day). The average...

mikezaccardi

Retail earnings season is upon us. So far, FactSet notes that 92% of the S&P 500 has reported Q3 results, and the total beat rate is strong at 81% - the highest since Q3 2021. What’s more, the blended EPS growth rate is now seen at +4.1% - the first positive YoY earnings growth rate quarter in a year. Analysts have turned more optimistic about how Q3 progressed,...

mikezaccardi

Key to much of the market’s late 2022 and first-half of 2023 rally was a general move lower in the US Dollar Index (DXY). Mostly a short play on the euro, the DXY is a key macro indicator – when it’s rising, it is considered a ‘risk-off’ environment for stocks while significant equity bull markets have featured sideways or downward moves in the greenback. Nothing...

mikezaccardi

Now’s primetime if you’re an energy trader. Winter forecasts continue to roll in and cold fronts are sweeping across the CONUS. Naturally, it is also a time to eye both the fundamentals and technicals of Henry Hub Natural Gas. Most novice investors simply analyze the continuous prompt-month of HH NG. Having spent years on an energy trading floor and advising...

mikezaccardi

After the VIX sagged to under 13 at times in the third quarter, October has brought about the bears and higher volatility, as if on seasonal cue. The S&P 500 peaked in late July right when many mega-cap tech stocks reported second-quarter earnings results. The AI-fueled rally that gave equities legs following the SVB crisis in mid-March finally lost steam. The...

mikezaccardi

Defensive-value niches of the S&P 500 were not all that cheap back in the summer of 2022. Consumer Staples traded with a forward operating P/E north of 20 while the uninspiring and often-safe Utilities space briefly had an earnings multiple above 22. Real Estate, meanwhile, has endured steep absolute and relative selling over the last many quarters as the...

mikezaccardi

Among my favorite charts this time of year is that of RBOB gasoline futures. Often as Halloween approaches, wholesale gasoline costs start coming down significantly from highs in the summer. Call it a nice treat for commuters and families around the country. As it stands, the prompt-month of RBOB is now under $2.20 - that's a fresh 10-month low should we close...

mikezaccardi

The Fed meeting will come and go this week. As the committee debates whether to hike rates one more time at its November 1 gathering, commodities appear to be putting upward pressure on headline inflation – potentially throwing a wrench into the whole immaculate disinflation narrative. Indeed, the Goldilocks soft landing story became consensus in Q3, but traders...

mikezaccardi

Stocks experienced volatility following the release of JOLTS data last Tuesday, while equities showed mixed reactions to the NFP figures released on Friday. However, the Treasury market, particularly the 30-year Treasury bond, saw more significant movements. The 30-year bond's yield initially dropped to 4.18% but rebounded above 4.3% after traders analyzed a slew...

mikezaccardi

The Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (VGK) was an early-year relative winner as foreign equities generally outperformed the US stock market. Then came the March pullback which brought about a risk-off environment and flight to the dollar - both factor hurting relative returns of VGK. Even with a notable retreat in the greenback and a gradual shift favoring cyclical and...

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oil

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Tightening supply/demand balance

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For my boy Rizzo

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Working on a piece for HumbleDollar