Based on the path seen in 1987, a bottom would be set around April 1st and then retested about 5 weeks later. This is only meant to offer a comparison and in no ways means this will likely happen. One thing that is notably different between now and 1987 is that there was no looming recession in 1987. In my opinion, this means the current decline is likely to last...
This is a good reference point for the current decline. See the additional idea for the current day with thoughts on why this decline has different underlying reasons which could lead to different outcomes.
Headline news risk and future economic impacts are significant. The United States is currently grinding to a halt. This is a historical black swan event on par with the 2000 tech bubble crash and 2008 financial crisis.
There is no reason to believe that the end is over and the bottom is in. Total declines of ~40% from peak would put SPX around 2000.
This assumes the economy goes into recession. The declines and time frame mirror 2008, but given the speed of the decline, it seems like the time frame should be different. It's still very early to tell, so this is very much a rough estimate but a potential scenario nonetheless.
BTC looks ready to climb in a rising channel leading up to the havlening event. It's possible we see a run up pre-halvening with corresponding increased volume as the price gets to and then above $10k. This will likely be followed by a sharp decline after the halvening event as a result of old-gen miner capitulation and 'sell the news' market psychology. The key...
61.8% retracement at around $470 seems like a good place to consider rebuying $TSLA as this would put us back to the pre-Q4 earnings price and pre-parabolic run up. This all depends on the overall market. If $TSLA does get to this price and the overall market is healthy, we could see positive earnings in April sending $TSLA much higher.
$TTD has been a real winner over the last few years. The company is firing on all cylinders and earnings have reflected that. The company offers a software platform used by digital ad buyers to purchase data-driven digital advertising campaigns across various ad formats and devices. And, their fast growing segment is connected TV (CTV) which is still very much in...
2 more months of declines could be seen into the late spring. This corresponds roughly with the timing of the last correction and when flu season will likely end. Given the velocity and severity of the recent decline, getting a ~25% correction in line with the last correction in December 2018 seems likely and exceeding the magnitude of that decline is also a...
Bitcoin appears to be in a reaccumulation phase. After the big run up last summer, we've seen the price decline and then bottom around $6,400.
The halvening event is about 2 months away and will decrease the reward for mining Bitcoin by 50%. As Satoshi wrote, “The price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost." So given estimates that the...
If we get a bounce next week, look for a retrace to around the 3122 level in $SPX. This would be a good time to close out long positions held through the most recent declines. Market moves like we saw over the last week warrant a need to be defensive.
