mk_trader

mk_trader

On 1 hour chart, looking at BTCEUR, there is very nice falling three pattern. Rightmost candle shoud be whole, other than that, this should be bearish sign. Seems it didn't go through.

mk_trader

Long term to short term EW count and levels (kudos to GoldBug1). On the greater scale, EW count paired with Fibonacci levels show possible retracement of wave 3 (red) little below 5900 level. EW count on the larger scale reveals itself, but it is harder to do smaller fractals as retracements are small in size and time frame so it seems that W3 (purple) is 3.618...

mk_trader

BTCUSD EW count and Fibs lesson

mk_trader

Looking from start of the latest uptrend at October 30-31 price level, seems that BTCEUR has bounced from 0.236 correction level at 6317 EUR.

mk_trader

Looking from the end of October when last rally started, we have done minor correction at 0.236 level.

mk_trader

The waves starting at October 11th-12th and the other staring October 18th retraced by 0.618-ish, should we axpect this up movement from 25th to 27th to reatrce to 0.618 at about 5670? And there is one other thing, grater correction for up-trend since end of septmeber, started around 3520 and ended with ATH 6180. Should it retrace by 0.618 that would be around 4520.

mk_trader

Seems like things have gotten clearer, I think that this could be very probable EW count. Red fib levels for read EW count (mid term), and green for gren EW count (longterm).

mk_trader

Since I am doing "micro" patterns on basis of few hrs or days, this one seems like H&S pattern, neckline slightly tilted up, which is reversal pattern indicating price drop, though upward movement volume of left shoulder and head is not in accordace with pattern, left shoulder shound have larger up volume and head up movement should have less volume. If proven...

mk_trader

Fully formed symetrical triangle, testing support few times more than resistance. Let's se where will it go.

mk_trader

Have my stops tightly set if price moves down. This is consolidation period comming to and end, we'll se i which direction will break.

mk_trader

Seems like current movement can be broken down in much finer EW count which fits in supercycles. This fractal nature or EW together with Fibb levels is mimicking how nature designs many things. It's can also be the model for collective psychology. This is why I try to fit patterns in EW.

mk_trader

I have been trying to put my latest EW count (blue) into contex, so I've tryed to plot super-cycle and sub-cycles of EW. Standard EW moves in dominate trend of 5 cycles/waves and 3 retracement waves. There are 5 waves in dominate trend, three impulses 1, 3 and 5 and two retracement waves 4 and 2. Retracement wave has 3 cycles denoted A, B and C. Each of those, 1-5...

mk_trader

Somethinon my scratchpad, currently, price is falling as I'm writing this. Not sure about super-cycle in which this (blue) cycle fits, and subsequent sub-cycles. Will try to develop this further. Will we break 4200?

mk_trader

Interesting to see how pattern develops. Have drawn this in the morning, few hours before, when value was at peak of right shoulder. All the kudos to @goldbug1, I have seen H&S pattern drawn here at his chart, when he drew it few days ago.

mk_trader

Chart with channel and HMA.

mk_trader Updated 

Just posting this to record it in time. Channel nicely formed, A-B-C-D-E 0.06% count doesn't seem more probable than channel. It's not drawn, but there is wedge also nicely formed towards up, signaling price fall. The question is when to short, or possible enter another long position. HMA are 8 and 12 on a 4h time frame.

mk_trader

Postingh this idea as a log of current thinking. Is seems hard to plot EW going down, so this is one reason more to do it. Let me be clear about it, if beeing smart, we can all make something (@goldbug1: Bulls make monay, Bears make money), I am equally open to bullis and bearish trends, but for now, in this moment, short term, I see it a little bit more bullish...

mk_trader

Revised my charts and EW count, done math and levels. This is longterm cylcle starting March this year. Keep in mid, this is just one possibility, keep in mind there can be smaller inner cycles (fractal nature of EW) in 5th wave. My best prediction if market is going bullish. This leaves me only to define entry point.