I recently had a discussion on X, with regard to the Forecasting ability of High Yield Spreads. I was making the claim they do possess Leading Indicator qualities, while a gentleman took the other side of this debate. To illustrate my views, I've put together a chart of FedFunds Rate, Unemployment Rate, and said High Yield Spreads. This chart shows the last...
Over the past ~25yr, we've seen 3 instances of 2yr Yield dropping below the FEDFUNDS rate set by the Federal Reserve. All 3 instances coincide with Recessions. On this chart, you see the Yield Differential (Yellow), the SPX (Candles), along with the time of said "Rate Cycle Inversions" (Blue Bar Counts Below Price). As you can see, all 3 previous instances lead...
In this video I use Industrial Production, and more specifically, its Rate Of Change to show how we can approximate Booms and Busts in the "Business Cycle". I also go over previous cycles, and what to look for in our current cycle. As always, good luck, have fun, and practice solid risk management.
Happy Easter All.... So here's a chart I haven't shared yet that may interest some of you. For those who know/have heard of Numerology, this year is an "8"; (you add each individual digit of the year - 2+0+2+4), then look at prior "8" years. I won't get into the reason for this, it's a deep, long discussion...but let's check these 8's out. Over the past ~90yr,...
So I will preface this by saying..I believe almost ANYTHING is possible in Crypto. Exchanges have varying liquidities, and it's a relatively new asset class. So 12k wick possible... Sure. It's not in my top 2 or 3 base cases right now however. That being said... I primarily have 3 "possible" paths I see for BTC at the moment, Green and Red spends time in this...
Based on BTC's recent Daily PA/Structure, here are some potential downside targets; until BTC manages to take out that "C" Wave High (44.x). N Wave - 39.8k V Wave - 35.9k E Wave - 35.6k As always, good luck, have fun, and practice solid risk management.
Merry Christmas to all, I hope you and yours are well. My present to you this year is the one chart you should ALL be watching. SPX/GOLD Risk On (Equities), Risk Off (Gold). It will save you a TON of time/headaches, if you follow this chart. In this video I go over why you should use it. How your portfolio would have been managed the last 50yr, and at the end...
In this video I walk you through EURUSD from the Yearly Chart, down to the Weekly Chart. Going over levels that have been swept, levels I see as upcoming draws on liquidity, and 3 scenarios I see possibly playing out for EURUSD over the next 1-3 quarters. As always, good luck, have fun, and practice solid risk management.
On July 2nd I put out a video, discussing being "Stuck in the middle", and mentioning the Bearish Monthly Ichi structure. I admittedly was thinking EURUSD would be Bearish for the week, but I did mention where I'd be invalidated; A break above the descending Daily Forecast Line. We did just that, broke the Daily Forecast, and proceeded to move to 1.112 and...
In this video, I go over a list of stocks I'll be looking for strength in, to hop into longs on. I go over levels I'll be watching, and what would negate said interest. I run scans each week, to look for ideal candidates for the following week (Longs). My scan this week provided me over 300 Stocks, and these are the ones I believe show the most promise. As...
In this video I go over EURUSD from the Monthly, down to the 4hr. Monthly is Bearish Weekly is Bullish but with my favorite Bearish Div Setup. Daily has seen a HH-LL-LH-LL ABCD type formation, all this after my fav setup (Div w/Kijun break) on the weekly... So cautiously Bearish. 4hr shows some downside targets using Ichi Wave Theory, should this divergence...
In this video I pick up where we left off, and go over some new 4hr Ichi Wave targets. All eyes on 36.2k As always, good luck, have fun, and practice solid risk managment.
In this video I go over some Major Macro Targets. Our Upside Target posted on the June 14th video (4430) was hit beautifully, and we've since begun correcting. I will make another video in the coming days, dissecting the lower timeframe (4hr). As always, good luck, have fun, and practice solid risk management.
Job well done Bulls. You blasted thru the overhead resistance I mentioned in yesterday's video, and have hit the first target (NT Wave). In this video I discuss further upside targets, should be manage to stay above the cloud on the Daily. As always, good luck, have fun and practice solid risk management.
In this video I go over what I said I thought would happen, and what I'm looking for now. Name of the game is still Up, until the levels I mention in this video are broken. As always, good luck, have fun, and practice solid risk management.
This is a quick video discussing BTC's recent price developments, and what I'm looking for. Cautiously Bullish sums up my current stance. As always, good luck, have fun, and practice solid risk management.
A quick analysis of SP500 since my last June 6th video, along with potential targets to the upside, and what to look for, should Bulls lose control.
In this video I take a look at 4 major pairs vs the USD, and a concept known as SMT Divergence, authored by ICT. The theory behind this being, that by comparing structure from similar periods, we can see which pairs "Smart Money" is accumulating. I've also briefly touched on "Net Positioning" of Leveraged Money (ie "Smart Money") based on today's newly released...