Perhaps "this time IS different".... as Global macro seems irrelevant to markets. EURUSD has been pumping this week, even though EUROPE is apparently in a recession, as per the recent GDP numbers. So long as Bulls can hold above the 4hr cloud/forecast lines, up is the name of the game, and 1.09 looks like the next "logical" target. As always, good luck, have...
BTC is nothing, if not exciting. In this video I go over the Weekly and Daily chart of BTC, and their corresponding Ichi Wave Theory targets; given current Price Structure, as well as potential developing structure. As always, good luck, have fun, and practice solid risk management.
Today put in a Squat Bar (Bill Williams Theory) as well as a Wiseman Div. Not what we want to see. Bulls don't want to relax here, it's not a good spot to take a rest. If you're in good profits, now may be a time to take a lil off. Or tighten up stops etc. The sector chart I referenced ( Communication, Discretionary, Energy etc) didn't show in the video, I...
Monthly is Bearish across the board, with the only structural exception being the TK Pinch of price. Weekly is Bullish, so showing it in a Pullback of the overall Bearish Trend (Based off the Monthly timeframe). While it's above the cloud, it's also put in a Bear Div, followed by a close below the Kijun, one of my favorite signals. Daily is showing quite...
While Yield Curves globally point to Doom. Liquidity dries up. Uncertainty reigns over the world.. The SP500 hasn't gotten the memo, or just doesn't care. We can make arguments for days about why this is, but regardless... It Is. So long as we remain over the Forecast Lines, Up is the name of the game. Should we fall below them, the targets are the Cloud...
A "Pet Rock" to some, the only "True Money" to others.. Gold has done well the past 6 months; Largely due to all the Global Uncertainty. Many call Gold an Inflation Hedge, I view it more as "Uncertainty Insurance". A) Gold closes above the Weekly Kijun, and successfully re-tests it from the upside, holding; The first sign of life for the Bulls. B) Gold spends...
BTC has done well this year so far. I've long said, Bitcoin is the markets most sensitive liquidity gauge. We're likely to see some 'hiccups' in Global Liquidity Q3/Q4 this year (12mo Money Supply RoC tanking, TGA about to 'refill', Rates Rising, China 'ReOpening' flop, etc etc)... So that begs the question; What to expect for BTC over the next 6 months? A) BTC...
What an exciting ride it's been in Macro Markets lately! If you're into S&M; that is. I've long said, thanks to Luke Gromen, BTC is our best Liquidity Gauge in markets. And BTC hasn't failed us this time either. It sniffed out a change in tides, well before any other asset in markets. Where we've been.... 1) BTC on the Weekly chart puts in a beautiful,...
Marked are levels of resting liquidity (Stops Above/Below). As always on my charts, Red = Monthly Orange = Weekly. I don't see a scenario where the Relative Equal Lows (REL) don't get grabbed. If we grab the REL first, I'd consider this QUITE Bullish, and be looking to Long into the Weekly/Monthly Levels above. If we move UP before taking the REL, I'd be...
Gold has been coiling nicely for more than a couple months now. The Inside Month we're currently forming, along with an Expanding Weekly Structure, suggest Gold has a "large" move incoming. Question is, will it be back to a 2k handle....Or down to 1.6xx....? I think this largely depends on how much uncertainty and Global Liquidity Tightening continues to...
So I'll cut to the chase, as we may not have much time.... USDJPY Signaling Major Risk Off move, we've only seen the beginning of the "Blood in the streets" "Buy the Dip" moment, IMO. Take profits, be safe. Protect against Risk Off/Liquidity events, in these globally connected markets...they can cascade quickly, biblically. 4 previous times I've had this...
Besides the illustrated Indicator signals, CoT Data on DXY shows Commercials at a (typical) turning point extreme. Nov '18, Oct '19 both previous times where Commercials were more than 40k Net Short...Extremes in the Commercials tend to correspond with turning points in the market. This is a BIG SHIP steering though, it's not a turn-on-a-dime kind of move. ...
Just a friendly reminder....BTC is doing the exact same thing it did just months ago, when it put in the previous Macro Bottom.... Impulse Leg up....Retracement to the 66.6%...... Repeat...... So far we've had a stellar bounce from this level. I'll follow up with a Daily or something in a bit...
I know most traders are watching the 1min (or even 1 sec/tick) charts, but it often pays to ZOOM OUT. To get a Bird's Eye View, if you will. Doing so on the EURUSD is scary. It looks like a GIANT HnS pattern. Ready to dump towards 1.11, even 1.10. In a world of ever-growing Inflation concerns, it's always good to keep an eye on the opposite viewpoint,...
BTC is currently grinding along/down it's Upper Weekly Geo Line (yellow descending arrow). So far, nothing alarming on either side (Bear or Bull) is happening...which has been good for many alts. The two Pink Arrow sets are what I'm watching out for currently. If we lose this Upper Geo Line (and last week's EQ by default), I'd be looking for last month's EQ,...
BTC is currently teasing us w/tests of the 1/2 from 30k lows. A close below this (weekly) would be a Failure to Square, a Hagopian Rule type "weakness", likely resulting in a test of the 1/1 (orange arrows). Maintaining 1/2 should lead to us testing the OG 1/1 (75k & ascending), anchored from our CV19 lows last March.
This first chart shows DXY, the Major macro leg it's created over the past 18 months or so, and the Premium (Red boxes) and Discount (Green boxes) ranges, along with the EQ's of said leg. As you can see, we're in an area of Discount. So any "smart money" that shorted/sold that 99-103 (Premium) Range, will now likely be accumulating Longs, in this 89-93 (Discount...
It's been a WILD Ride, the past couple years, no doubt. And BTC has been wild, along with everything else going on in the world around us. So here's a look at what's happened since CV-19, and what I'm keeping my eyes on for the near-term..... A) The Cerveza Plunge. No one needs an introduction to this. Global macro liquidity event. Basically everyone...