As follows from my previous posts, I am all for the idea that Bitcoin replicates the movement dynamics of the Nasdaq index just before the dot-com bubble until this pattern forms a new structure. The recent divergence is up to 9 days, which means Bitcoin is already close to reaching its low.
As seen in the overlaid pattern of the NASDAQ chart from 1998, a sharp drop in the index followed by a rapid recovery often signals high volatility. This typically occurs in periods when markets are still searching for equilibrium, but the risks of overheating increase. A similar dynamic is observed in cryptocurrencies.
During the 1998 market crash, low oil...
The movement dynamics of the NASDAQ index in January 2025 are beginning to resemble market trends from the 1997 - 1998 period - a shock crash in the summer of 1998, followed by the dot-com bubble. While it is unlikely that the chart will fully repeat itself, market conditions may lead to a similar pattern.
Under this scenario, applied to Bitcoin, we could see a...
