The chart shows the current S&P price action with an analog overlay of the dotcom bear market. Scenarios; 1/ Near term support at 3900 2/ Mid term support at 3600 3/ Longer term support at 3200 A break of all 3 of these support areas could possibly see a fall to 2345 or even covid19 lows.
Double bottom price action on the GDXJ Price of the double bottom also hitting S/R zone of the previous 4 year base break-out. Does this indicate a reversal in the last 12 month pull-back and the start of a new break-out?
3 possible scenarios; A. Consolidate in current flag formation and then move to new highs with some further consolidation around the b1950 resistance before moving higher. Timeframe = 1 month B. Flag breaks to downside but is supported by May/June 2019 trend, and then consolidation around resistance before moving to new all-time highs. Timeframe = 2 months C....
Looking at the Silver to M2 Money Supply you can clearly see when the ratio bottomed and subsequently broke the preceding downtrend the silver price broke out and had significant booms. If you take a calculated and measured move from silver's previously significant breakout and overlay to today's market you could conceivably see $60 silver by end 2023, and $200...
Roadmap: There are a few scenarios to consider. There is clearly support in the rising arc, however the recent price action has seen a breakdown of some key chart indicators and patterns. There was a breakdown of the head and shoulders pattern, as well as a breach of key neckline and pivots and support and resistance ares. The possible outcomes are; A: Price...
This analysis looks at the analog comparison in the gold price performance over the period of August 2016 to May 2017 to current price performance. (the last US presidential election time-frame) Similar trends are taking shape. If it plays out as in 2016 we could see another $100 drop in the price of gold . This would take gold to around $1700.
This analysis takes the chart patterns from the 2006 to 2011 gold bull market and overlays them to the current market condition. If these chart patterns were to play out in the current gold bull market we could expect a few different scenarios. #1 A run up to about $2300 between now and October # 2 A major pullback to about $1740 between October and December,...
POSSIBLE SCENARIO A #1 A 10% decline in gold from the recent peak. (completed) #2 Consolidation around all-time high level - between $1921 to $1950 for 2 to 4 weeks. #3 Then a 20% to 25% move from all time high level (now support?) to $2300 #4 A significant re-test of the all-time high mid November to early December (could this coincide with deflation in the...
This chart shows the ratio between XLK (Technology) and XLF (Financials). When the chart is going up the the indicator is saying go long technology. Sideways then equal weighting. Chart going down then overweight XLF, lighten up on XLK. It also shows that the current situation is that XLK is at a top. In fact it is significantly above the DOT COM bubble of...
Gold and Silver outperformed the S&P 500 from 2008 to 2011. Recently these markets have been moving together (in the same direction) but Gold/Silver has outperformed. Will they start to decouple - S&P 500 (and equities more generally) start declining and Gold/Silver continue to go up? What is next?
Gold has broken and closed above major level resistance of $1800 but is now facing short-term resistance at $1815. A close above $1815 should confirm a more direct path to the all-time high at $1921 Do we see 1 of the following 3 scenarios playing out? #1 consolidation and then a move to the all-time high (high probability) #2 straight to the all time high...
USDJPY should resolve its longer-term direction by early to mid 2021. Weight of evidence - multi-year H&S and the more recent descending trend suggests a lower USDJPY . Could it break to the downside of the long-term supply/ demand zone or can it break the shackles of significant historical bear patterns and a long-term down trend? Time will tell? If it breaks to...
The chart shows the Dow to Silver Ratio and an indicator column chart of the distance of price from the 37 moving average. As the the ratio peaks (more silver to buy the Dow) and the distance between price and the 37 MA crosses below the zero line it's time to go long silver . Are we entering the long phase? And if so, how long will it last? The last significant...
Chart shows the S&P 500 to Gold Ratio and an indicator column chart of the distance of price from the 36 simple moving average. As the the ratio peaks (more gold to buy the S&P) and the distance between price and the 36 MA crosses below the zero line it's time to go long gold and lighten equities. The chart shows the transition periods between gold to equities and...
Apart from the "flight to safety" in March the USD has generally been trading in a sideways manner. Recent trading patterns - megaphone top, breakdown of flag formation, breakdown of intermediate triple top and challenge of the lower uptrend line suggests a possible, imminent break to the downside. Looks like that this could play out very soon?
After a slight but distinct down-trend channel since 2016, is silver ready for a significant breakout? Silver has just completed an inverse head and shoulder pattern, breaking the neckline and now breaking out of recent resistance and heading towards major supporetr/reesiatnce level of $18.50. A close above $18.50 may lead to fireworks for silver? Let's see.
GOLD has made a multi year basing pattern , commencing in 2013 and finally breaking out in mid 2019. The gold miners, GDX followed in April this year. Based on the market direction and momentum for GOLD and GDX we would expect that the gold juniors, GDXJ will follow shortly.
Recent price action sees a double top set up for the USD index - the neckline is clearly established. Looking for a retest of the recent lows, back to the neckline and then a break back down below the lows.