nikvo1990

nikvo1990

There is a prevalent opinion today that if the US economy achieves higher inflation rates, that corporate earnings will be higher and households' dipsosable income (and dollar value going into investments) will get higher, thus elevating stock prices. Most evidence i have found from the past leads to the contrary!!! The 3 reasons i believe we see this phenomenon...

nikvo1990 Updated 

The Work from home narrative has pushed tech stocks in All time highs. Now the Nasdaq100/SP500 ratio is higher than the 2000 stock bubble. Having this in mind Shorting the NDX, Buying the SPX has a great risk reward ratio. TA: Monthly RSI is in extreme overbought levels Fundamentals: If a vaccine is announced the SP500 laggards (airlines, travel, retail) will...

nikvo1990 Updated 

This was a great week for the US economy and the oil market. The OPEC+ agreement, the surprise numbers in employment in the US and the flattening of the Covid-19 curve of infected people really gave spectacular returns to bulls. Fundamentals: The 40$ price is very crucial for the producers as it is the breakeven point of Shale producers. Above that new oil rigs...

nikvo1990 Updated 

TA: RSI, MACD in the Weekly chart shows that sellers are covering their positions. 4H Chart is also bullish. Fundamentals: As the economy reopens and US provided financial support. Its fair to say that airlines are not going bankrupt or nationalized. Also mergers in the airline space may be on the books here in order to "save this critical US industry". From a...

nikvo1990 Updated 

This stock has unusually very high volumes on call options with 8/5 expiration. TA: Good news there is actually a buying sentiment in 4h chart. Bad news it is touching the bollinger band This is an experiment of mine to look into a new trading strategy, so DON'T trade without doing your own research.

nikvo1990 Updated 

Fundamentals: Major squeeze of longs in USOIL resulted in -13%. We have sees major interventions in oil markets as Donald Trump is determined to save as many oil companies as he can.(Look at older ideas). TA: In my opinion, we will see profit taking in these levels. (RSI oversold, smaller volumes, touch on the bollinger Band) but investors should have a Stop Loss...

nikvo1990 Updated 

Continuation of my previous VIX idea. RSI just crossed 70 and Volumes show that Long Volatility is a crowded trade. I will open the position with the 50% of my idle cash so NOT All-in but not a small bet. I am sure traders can find better/higher prices, but i just don't want to lose this opportunity. SL @97.13, TP@19.28, Risk/Reward 2 as usual. IMPORTANT NOTE: DO...

nikvo1990 Updated 

Fundamentals: 1) The "Whatevever it takes" infinate QE policy has improved dollar liquidity in markets. A General sell-off like the one we saw in March is possible but market sentiment is calmer and less volatile. 2) It seems like a decade ago ,but if you recall, the President of the USA was really focused on negotiating better trade terms for his country and a...

nikvo1990 Updated 

Fundamentals: Yesterday was a fantastic day for oil due to Trump's comments. But no immidiate action yet. Remember Giants like Exxon,Chevron actually do not want a bailout for oil companies yet, because they have a great opportunity to buy-out bankrupt shale producers for peanuts. TA: MACD and Volumes on the 1hour chart signal the start of selling activity....

nikvo1990 Updated 

Short term trade using 5% of idle cash. The Good: Selling volumes are extremely high and 1447 is a critical support level, so i expect a Friday profit taking session. The Bad: RSI near 30 but not yet below it so not officialy oversold , weekly and hourly charts are telling a different story. A false breakout is possible. The Ugly: These days we have seen a very...

nikvo1990 Updated 

The current news headlines talk about the oil price war between OPEC+ and Russia. Long story short, Russia wants to punish shale oil producers from the US by increasing output. US producers have a breakeven price of 40 USD/BARREL. Saudi Arabia did not agree with Russia during during the OPEC meeting. So they announced an output increase themselves offering...

nikvo1990 Updated 

Pure technically we have seen the weekly VIX candle breach the Bollinger Band 6 times in the last 11 years with a syringe like pattern (more than 70% upside). In my opinion this pattern happens when people are in panic mode. 5 out of 6 times VIX dropped significantly within 6 weeks. The exception (rectangle shape) is the 2008 crisis. My SL will be set at the top...