npatz_2000

npatz_2000

An LPSY (Last Point of Supply) is one of the more reliable of Wyckoff entries. It also offers one of the best R:R ratios of all Wyckoff entries. We have had one false attempt to reverse at the SP (Spring), followed by a SOS (Sign of Strength). Now we have a second attempt at a reversal, generally the last in the form of a TSO (Terminal Shakeout), followed by a...

npatz_2000

Recent JTC (Jump the Creek), 2 creeks actually. Followed by a low momentum pullback, AKA BUC (Back Up to the Creek). Entering long with a target at a AB=CD extension. Good trading all

npatz_2000

CDK looks to be setting up for a nice risk:reward swing trade in the form of a SP (Spring). Looking to re-test the high at TOD (Test of Demand). CDK is showing a re-accumulation Wyckoff pattern. The spring is a more aggressive entry, but the risk:reward is generally better on these more aggressive entries (especially when the trading range between TOD and SC is...

npatz_2000 Updated 

My bias is long on SPY. My expectation is that the recent gap up over resistance is a Jump the Creek (JTC) wave, so I am expecting a pullback in the direction of previous resistance, looking for low volume on the Back Up to Creek pullback to enter long in the direction of the long term trend. However, if we get heavy selling on the pullback it could indicate an...

npatz_2000 Updated 

My first attempt at buying springs at new lows, based on my backtesting, they offer great risk:reward profiles. They don't work a huge amount of the time, but when they work (turn into a change of trend) they more than make up for the losses, plus even when they don't work, we usually get some sort of knee jerk reversal for a small profit (like we did today). Gap...

npatz_2000 Updated 

I love the Wyckoff methodology, with that said, I am not a strict Wyckoffian follower. I view waves in price a bit different than the strict Wyckoff follower probably would. All in all I am probably 70-80% strict Wyckoff (the general methodology) and 20-30% my own interpretation (individual waves, etc). So anyways this is my Wyckoff variation explained (how I...

npatz_2000 Updated 

A smaller re-accumulation pattern within a larger 6 month long re-accumulation pattern. Culminating in a smaller/larger TSO (Terminal Shakeout). This trade offers an excellent reward:risk profile of 4.5:1 at the current level. Ideally, we wait for a JTC (Jump of the Creek) on the smaller pattern, followed by a BUC (Back Up to the Creek) on low volume; this would...

npatz_2000 Updated 

New 1-wave high after multiple new swing lows off the previous high. The current new high appears to be a Terminal Upthrust on MU. Distributions (like Accumulations) generally take prolonged periods of sideways action to play out. I expect a short to medium term wide range distribution/re-accumulation period on MU. Full Disclosure: Currently long Oct-20 call...

npatz_2000 Updated 

I am in no way an expert in Harmonic patterns, however, this looks like a Gartley pattern to me. The exact levels may not be perfect to a diehard harmonic trader, but I have always been taught that if price action looks close, then you trade it like that pattern. So anyways, back to Wyckoff, we have a buying climax (BC), followed by an automatic reversal (AR),...

npatz_2000 Updated 

JUMP THE CREEK ON INCREASED VOLUME (GAP ABOVE RESISTANCE), FOLLOWED BY PULLBACK (BACK UP TO THE CREEK) ON DECREASING VOLUME FINDING SUPPORT ON PRIOR RESISTANCE (THE CREEK)

npatz_2000

Cup is a 30-40% retracement of previous upswing. Handle 10-20% pullback of previous upswing, with very light volume at end of handle. Entry today at close above top of handle on strong volume.

npatz_2000

Descending channel makes confluence with long term trend line (red) and price. Double bottom at confluence as pullback after break of previous swing high. Short term target at last swing high. Ultimately price could breakout of channel offering a secondary entry at the pullback after the channel breakout with long term target around $34. If price instead breaks...

npatz_2000

One of the first lessons that we are taught when learning to trade is that markets either trend up, down, or sideways. When in a trend we are taught to enter on pullbacks/rallies within the trend, and in sideways markets we are taught that we can trade both long and short. This may turn out to be a good example of trading both sides in a sideways stock. BAC has...

npatz_2000

This is a simple setup. Find a stock that is in an uptrend, wait for a correction that forms a descending channel, then go long on the first pullback after a breakout of the descending channel. Go long on a pullback to the "Entry" zone, which is a confluence of the ascending channel (red) within the larger ascending channel (black) and the descending channel....

npatz_2000

Approximately a 7 year uptrend in Kellogg, in the form of an Ascending Wedge. Short term Descending Channel to the bottom of the Ascending Wedge. Immediate entry at touch of upper trend line of Descending Channel, exit at touch of bottom trend line of Ascending Wedge. Most likely K will trade sideways in the triangle shown for the immediate future. K will probably...

npatz_2000

Strengths: - Fundamentals: AWR is outperforming its industry = leader, PE is 25 vs. 19 for industry; total debt/equity is 0.7 vs 1 for the industry; good 5 yr earnings growth, gross margins, and ROE, even though they are slightly less than industry avg, 14%, 45%, and 13% respectively; Institutional ownership is very strong at 66% vs an industry avg of 1%....

npatz_2000

Organized flag on CSX, scalp a portion of the position at previous swing high, stop at close below swing low, Target at measured flag at 43.14.

npatz_2000

1. Relative Strength Analysis: HSBC has underperformed both the SPY and XLF (Financial Sector) over the last YTD, 6 and 12 month periods. 2. "Break of the Ice", now expecting a re-test of that level (49.00-50.50) level 3. Entry - no entry yet, looking for an entry in the 47.50 - 49.00 range 4. Stop - close above previous swing high at 50.08 5. Target - general...