npatz_2000

npatz_2000

Medium to long term outlook : Bullish Short term outlook : Bullish Reason for Long : 1. Bullish long term trend channel (white) 2. Break of short term bearish trend channel (red - AKA Jump the Creek, Wyckoff), which found support at the blue support line 3. Followed by a test of the breakout (smaller red trend channel) (Back up to the Creek - Wyckoff) Entry :...

npatz_2000

Medium - long term outlook : Long Short term outlook : Long Reason for Long : 1. Pullback to bottom of bullish trend channel (white) 2. Regular divergence of OBV (volume) and price; AKA secondary test of selling climax (Wyckoff) 3. Regular divergence followed by hidden divergence on heavier volume with support at prior low ("Spring" - Wyckoff) 4. First break of...

npatz_2000

Medium to Long Term Outlook - Bullish Short Term Outlook - Bearish Bullish lower channel line in green, based on daily chart. Reason for Short trade now: 1. Rally up to upper bearish channel line (red) 2. "Pop and Drop" price action pattern (my definition, lower low immediately followed by a one leg higher high) 3. 2 leg pullback off lower low (AKA second...

npatz_2000

I know that this chart is a long term outlook, maybe too long term for most traders to be able to utilize today, but my plan is to build a small watchlist of stocks/ETF's/currencies through the daily charts which will act as the anchor charts for the future shorter term charts that I will analyze in the future for more frequent trade ideas. These anchor charts...

npatz_2000

This is an interesting time in the markets right now. This is a chart of the SPY for the last 3.5 years. As anyone can see the S&P has been in a nice uptrend without any violations of the current trend channel (white). The upward trend line in the middle of the channel (Aqua) has also been a line of support over the last 3.5 years, which price is at right now...

npatz_2000

I thought that this chart was interesting during the current uncertainty in the market. So we have AAPL, an undeniably strong stock over the last year. We see the break of the prior major resistance at approx. $100 and the major support level at the $50-$55 range, over 100% gain over the last year. We see that there is a steeper trend channel over the last 4-6...

npatz_2000

DVA has been trading in this range for about 2.5 months. There is a nice Spring briefly breaking the low of the Automatic Retracement. This led to a Sign of Strength on increased volume, then a lower volume test of the spring at the Last Point of Support level. The conservative entry would be to wait for the breakout above the SOS level with an initial stop...

npatz_2000

My charts are setup initially to look for Wyckoff trend continuation patterns, such as re-accumulation and re-distribution, because in general it is better to trade "with" the trend rather than against it, but sometimes these patterns fail and lead to distribution, such as I think is the case for IP. Ultimately it is tough to differentiate between a congestion...

npatz_2000

Symmetrical triangle after mark down with a break of support and now a TOD (Test of Demand) VSA bar, which is a test of support now resistance up bar with mid to down close on low volume, indicating that the market tested the previous high but with little demand, were unable to hold the test and closed near the low. Initial entry at low of signal bar with...

npatz_2000

Descending triangle pattern with a ND (No Demand) VSA bar, an upbar and up close on low volume. Initial entry at low of signal bar and initial stop at high of signal bar. Pattern remains valid as long as there is not a close above the high of the signal bar prior to break of low. Target is equal to a measured move of first leg in triangle. FYI: my definitions...

npatz_2000

A symmetrical triangle pattern with increasing demand volume on down wave culminating in today's AV (Accumulation Volume) VSA bar, down bar with mid to up close on high volume. Further strengthened by the support found on triangle trendline. This is an aggressive entry. A more conservative entry would be to wait for further signs of strength and a NS (No supply)...

npatz_2000

Lower low at C, then a higher high at A, then a climactic lower low at C finding support at prior support level. An AC (Accumulation Volume) VSA bar, which is a down bar with a mid to up close on high volume, indicating strength. First target is the previous higher high with a R:R of 1:3.12. Second target is a measured move of the trading range with a R:R of...

npatz_2000

Outlook remains valid looking for entry at 1 tick below low of bar with initial stop 1 tick above high of bar, target remains the same at $108.92.

npatz_2000

Indicators used: 1) Zig Zag with 3% deviations to identify bull and bear swings (similar to the Weis Wave Indicator); 2) OBV is used to determine net volume change during the bull and bear swings (instead of cumulative volume used by the Weis Wave Indicator). Aggressive short entry on break of low of DV (Distribution Volume) bar with significant weakness in the...

npatz_2000

Possible completion of accumulation phase in AGCO. After a TSO (Terminal Shakeout, AKA Spring) on low volume, not ideal, we get a low volume TOS (Test of Supply) leading to a JTC (Jump the Creek) up move on increased volume indicating strength. Now getting a wide range retracement on relative low volume, indicating a lack of supply (the stock has been accumulated...

npatz_2000

A possible completion of Phace C of the Wyckoffian distribution phase. Phase A shows the MU (Mark Up Phase) on strong volume. Followed by a PSY (Preliminary Supply) on lower volume, then a BC (Buying Climax) on stronger volume, indicating a potential slowing of the current trend. This is followed by the AR (Automatic Reaction), which is the first increase in...