oisigma

oisigma

This is the variation on the analysis I did yesterday but with a look back of 100 years, to show you the flexibility of the indicators. This is a purely technical exercise, please remember that long term projections depend on deeper analysis of fundamental as well as technical factors. for 2025 and a look back period of 100 years, expected value: 6383 expected...

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An example on how our tools can be used to make projections: SPX expected value for 2025 is 6863 with an expected range from 5885 to 7841 with a probability of staying within this range of 66.67%. The expected volatility for this year is 16.63%. These projections are based on the last 5 years of data.

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This chat compares the monthly unemployment rate and the job openings since 2022. Unemployment has been rising since end of 2023, basically beginning of AI, and available jobs have been down since 2022, all while the market is reaching new highs. It seems that AI brings in more revenue and reduces cost for companies. I wonder if they’ll be any regulations.

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This chart illustrates how the difference between volatility bands in white and Bollinger bands in orange. As you can see volatility bands encompass the volatility better.

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This chart displays the difference between the mean in white and the simple moving average in orange to illustrate the difference in how they work. As you can see the mean is a better approximation of price movements.

oisigma Updated 

Based on the probabilities indicator, the probability of closing the year above 5295 is 70% based on price data from the last 10 years. To get to use the correct number of years of historical data I pick the period where the green line is close to 68% (the probability of staying within bounds).

oisigma Updated 

The indicator shows a 60% probability of closing below the 40 day moving mean at 69420 for today.

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Because it is not a company and nobody owns it that can enforce any kind of intellectual property on the millions of coin derivatives that exist today. Because it is not trust free since you must eventually report your "trust-less" transaction to a tax authority. It is not trust-less, but a trust-less version may be created and operated by tax authorities to...

oisigma Updated 

Lots going on. We may go to 4100 then down to 3500. Any breakout above the broadening wedge and we might see 4800 again, but I doubt it given the rising rates environment.

oisigma Updated 

Looks like we might go up to 4100 then down to make new lows beyond 3500.

oisigma Updated 

Me might go up to 300 then down to 250. I don’t see the broadening wedge breaking out from the top in a raising rates environment.

oisigma Updated 

Up only from this point I think. Double bottom at around 25800 and they will soon sign the budget so it’s win win. Even if they don’t sign the dollar might dump.

oisigma Updated 

As you can see from the indication the probability of closing friday post earnings below 707 is 5% and the probability of closing above 745 is 60%.

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As long as this is the case, inflation will stick.

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Last time things were this inverted is September 1981.