oliverrathbun

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MCD Monthly LOG Chart This iconic American company's stock is nearing completion of an historic bull cycle. Very few companies can compare to the consistent return MCD has provided its shareholders. Am I recommending a short? No... There are much better candidates for that strategy out there. I'm posting this as an example of a complete Elliot wave cycle...

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Here is my road map for TLT... T-Bonds This will have significant ramifications across many correlated markets. Think ES, DXY, Gold etc... I believe we close to embarking on a C wave move up to the opposing upper channel line. This could take on a variety of shapes/slopes. Time will tell. The bigger move ahead is down... although the move ahead will be worth...

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This is a serious bear... I am giving my short term/long term outlook here. Setting up for near term buy. Longer term I believe there will be another low coming. A wave 3 low is currently setting up with a long side wave 4 counter trend trade opportunity. Here is a Monthly Linear Chart with my anticipated pathway and target price for a longer term buy.

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Meta is looking interesting . Daily log scale I think there is a nice shorting opportunity setting up. I will proceed with caution as this stock is in a strong sector and there is strong upside momentum behind this move. Overhead and underneath gaps will likely fill. My path projection to fill these gaps are illustrated in red. I have no immediate urgency to...

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I'm reposting my long term/short term thoughts on the gold market. My opinion has not changed since my last post. There has been pertinent market activity that needs updating. We are getting closer to an important pivot point IMO. I believe we are embarking on the long slide down to the $1300 level. The pace of the decline should soon accelerate. This is an...

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I believe copper is set up for a decline in the near term. Structural price action in the copper futures along with the 2 largest US copper producers stock price structure suggest price decline from this point. FCX BHP Group

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NVDA ... Longer term LOG chart This is in a topping area of a "B" wave. I expect a decline to the lower black channel as illustrated on the chart... Price is currently in-between fibs .5 & .62. Could get a little tricky. A trendline break approach would be prudent IMO. See chart below...

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I'm bullish on WTI and the energy sector in general at this level. I like Chevron which is close to my buy point for a fifth wave to new highs. Chart pretty much says it all. Wait for it. It needs to find at bottom at the confluence of trendlines on the chart. I'll update as needed in the near future

oliverrathbun Updated 

Silver and gold tend to move in tandem so this is not breaking new ground. See my post on Gold... link below This is a monthly linear chart. Keep that in mind. The proposed move will take some time for momentum to develop. As labeled on the chart I am expecting a 3rd wave down of "C" to commence soon. Commensurate with gold. Price pattern is strikingly...

oliverrathbun

10 Year bond yields closing in on a wave 4 low. I would expect some sort of base building price action before the next leg up. This will provide clarity on the projected completion of this 5 wave pattern. Yields have recently dropped in a flight to safety surrounding the bank failure panic. Does the stabilization of yields signal that crisis easing? Will the...

oliverrathbun

Observational at this point... "Prepare for the Unexpected" fits this thesis. Are we breaking out to the upside? Time and price are ripe for a move out of this 5 month long pattern I am labeling the "a & b" of a higher order "B" leg with the "c" leg up to follow. Notice the price pattern in the two white boxes...see how they touched the channel line, backed...

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What is the near/longer term direction of the market? Here's my take I believe we are and will be in a "trader's market for the foreseeable future. This can be an excellent environment to make make in provided you manage risk by picking your entries judiciously. From an Elliot wave perspective I think we are at an important fib level in the context of the...

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This is an intermediate term buy. Price is currently at long term channel median line. I'm projecting a move to the opposite side of the price channel. Roughly $90 price range. Short term (hourly) chart shows initial impulsive move off the low.

oliverrathbun Updated 

As a trader of the markets you always have to be prepared for black swan events that can become a fork in the road. Are we at a fork? I think there is real potential for that to be the case. If you look at my recent ideas there is a common theme. I'm expecting higher bond yields, a stronger dollar, and weaker gold prices. What does this mean for stocks......

oliverrathbun Updated 

This is a follow-up to my previous post on Feb 9th. There has been a consolidation...base building if you will, around the longer term median line. I continue to believe there will be a substantial advance from this point to the opposing channel as charted. A move through the local overhead resistance will likely garner significant buying. Weekly chart in an...

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I had published an idea on GOOG in August suggesting one more decline to finish the correction. Here I am again suggesting the same. It looks like a double zigzag correction has unfolded... There should be a move to the lower channel line ahead...a pretty significant move. Position a short on a retracement at a little higher price? You could use a price over the...

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This is an update for longer term direction of the US Dollar. I am expecting new highs for the dollar. This is longer term time horizon projection. The overall direction will be largely dictated by US bond yields which I am expecting to rise to the 5% area. (See chart below) Immediate term direction in the $ will likely be down as I am expecting an easing in...

oliverrathbun

ES WEEKLY Linear Chart - This is a Sell/Short idea... Will be looking for an ideal setup at the Wave 2 if swing trading. With this set-up you can view the early Feb top as a stop. This is a refinement of a previously published idea on my outlook for ES based mainly on my anticipated yield direction of the US10Y. See my idea on TBonds following the link...