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Still holding on by a thread...

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In Monthly squeeze with upside yearly pivot room

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This chart is intentionally blank. See my RELATED LINKED chart of NASDAQ 100.

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This chart is intentionally blank. See my RELATED LINKED chart of NASDAQ 100.

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While the first points of the fib extension cannot be seen in this chart, the most recent resistance by a fib line can be seen. What is remarkable is that this fib extension is drawn using the index's first daily low close (pre tech boom), its first daily high close (tech boom peak) and its second daily low close (tech bust trough)...and the price recently stopped...

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Adaptive volatility stop shows it is near critical point.

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Bottom part of channel equates to ~32 target mentioned in my previous Renko chart.

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My previous posts showed Line and Renko. This post shows Candle. Clearly, shorts will dominate until upper trend line in eclipse is re-punctured.

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Upon further review, I just noticed that XIV has broken the trend of a Renko chart based on 1-month ATR CLOSE. Thus, if it prices at or below ~39 at month-close, it will have officially broken the trend for the first time since the 2011 Euro scare. Whether it breaks or not, it is already near a decent nibbling area of ~32 based on this chart's Renko history.

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XIV is once again at its historically oversold level. However, new upside breakouts tend to take several months to develop.

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See chart.

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See chart.

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Why has SPX been in such a tight range for a month? Geopolitical tensions? GDP? Earnings? Well, maybe. But my guess is that the simple cause has been the orange pivot line marked R1. The question now becomes: Will SPX miraculously break through R1 and end the year at R2, or will R1 mark the beginning of a real correction or even a bear market? With the CAPE ratio,...