optionfarmers

optionfarmers

Intel is definitely in trouble for this year in 2024. But dont get it wrong, America wants a domestic chip maker and will support this company with more grants and debt. Nvidia and AMD dont make their own chips, the design them and TSM makes them. With geopolitics hot, USA needs a home team foundry/chip factory. Over the next 5 years, analysts believe the...

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Snap could keep falling until support is found, and over the next 5 years plus could be worth over 100 dollars. Updated and current earnings expectations are show on the chart. As of now this year, snapchat is still expensive. It seems the economy is softening, so Snapchat could fall more. Analysts still expect snapchat to have growing earnings and high...

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3.44$ stock seems to be a deep value play. Tangible book is near at 1.85. Already earning .41 for 2023 and expected to earn .49 in 2024, IQ has a forward earnings yield of over 14%. In addition to low Price to earnings, the growth potential expected is over 20% to as 38%. Plotting out the growth to 2029 and using optimistic growth stock multiples, a stock like...

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Celsius could be worth 100 or more again in the next 5 years, and the lower it falls the greater the opportunity. Analysts expects CELH to earn 3.08 in 5 years. Using PE multiples of 20 and 40, Celsius could be worth 60 to 130 dollars. I could see a scenarios where the short term momentum bubble pops in Celsius and a sell off continues to find support lower...

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Crude Oil may be losing some of the geopolitical war premium. Signs of weakening economy may not be enough to keep oil uptrend. SP500 (blue line on chart) may also be lining up with the same potential drop in crude oil. Crude Oil 80-81 level is support, breaking that could imply a exention lower to near 75.

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Dow and Rusell2k have rallied back and may be finding seller supply at current levels. If prices go lower and fail to hold recent support, then an extension of the down move could be in play. The majority of the gains stocks have been from the ai and magnificent 7 stocks (nvidia, amazon, tesla, microsoft, apple, google, meta). These stacks are a larger...

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Canadian Solar bounce potential trade. Its oversold and potentially pricing alot of the potential risk, making it attractive for a trade. Fundamentally is attractive. Tangible book value is 38 ish while stock is under 15. They took one debt to build manufacturing facility, so debt is productive. 3.6b debt vs 1.94 cash. PE is under 5, but when we factor in debt...

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Copper has been in an uptrend since february 2024. Price is currently outside Bollinger bands (50 period). Some of the reasons copper has been rising is near term demand and shortages, some articles pointing out to data center demand for copper for the AI boom. With Nvidia, intc, amd and other tech stocks showing weakness in last week, my opinion is that it...

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Stocks to gold ratio had dropped weeks before the spx in dollars had turned. Was the gold buying a signal that safe haven collateral was in demand? In a panic, both stocks and gold can be sold as investors need more and more liquidity in falling markets. So gold is not necessarily an inverse asset to stock, keep this in mind. In most major sell offs, gold...

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Its taken a long time, but silver has finally shown life toward the upside. Bullish moves in silver have taken 8-10 years in the past to fully play out. If 2020 marks the beginning of the bullish move, then this move could last until 2030. Bullish head and shoulders pattern could target silver to the mid 30s level. If silver shows continued strength, then...

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Correlation for risk on assets will mean that if bitcoin keeps selling, its likely that the rest of tech could see profit taking. Fed rate Wednesday is expected to be no change in rates, but commentary could be a catalyst. Most indices are at or near breaking the 20 period moving average. Bitcoin is now below the 20 daily moving average, an indication of...

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Nvidia currently trading at 36 times sales and pricing in all the forward growth in earnings analysts can see. Many cheap stocks trade at 1-2 x sales, normal price to sales for growth stocks might be 5-10x sales. But 36 x times has a huge built in growth premium which makes holding these growth names risky. Its just like a premium on precious metals at the coin...

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double top pattern in play after IWM and RUT failed to breakout higher with the rest of the large cap indices. patterns alone can be deceiving, but fundamental risks support this double top thesis. banks risks, higher costs from supply chain constrains and or inflationary costs in play. Higher rates may be finally hitting consumers and businesses as an extra...

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See my work of math art. I plot estimates of value over time. If you can visualize, it helps with understanding. Investors first must understand 3 things: does it make money now? will it make more money later? how is the company funded? Avoid money losers. Avoid companies that cant scale or grow. Avoid balance sheets that are weak or rotted with debt.

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The growth premium on Tesla ran the stock up ahead of the fair value. The enthusiasm from 2021 was too much for the business value. However, the turbulence and slowing sales seen now will bring opportunity. 400-500 as a 5 year price is fair given the growth rate on earnings per share. So the lower the price falls, the better for investors looking to buy at a...

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Gold is slow to move over time and hits its targets. The current move has been trying to break out for 3 ish years now. An extension of the current range of 1600-2050 points to a chance of 2500 as a target. And after than, if gold keeps rising, the decade range extension points at a shot at 3000. These numbers are hypothetical targets. When making new highs,...

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spx/gold is a way to measure the value of stocks compared to real commodity metal instead of printable dollars. Gold is a "safe haven" for many reasons including that once its in your hand you own it and no one is your counterparty. Dollars depend on the federal reserve and the supply of dollars circulating. When you hold gold, you hold a real commodity that has...

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after todays fed commentary, and this weeks earnings disappointments of the likes of Google, Apple and Microsoft, is it time vix to come back? NYCB made headlines as well by cutting the dividend and shoring up capital for potential losses. Vix this low is just eerie and concerning. Trade Idea would be bear spreads in indices, easier than trading vix directly.