optionfarmers

optionfarmers

ACB along with other cannabis stocks are up this month on news that marijuana may be reduced down to a lower schedule level. News headline : "On Tuesday, August 29, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) in a historic move officially recommended cannabis' controlled substance classification be changed from Schedule I to Schedule III ". This was...

optionfarmers Updated 

Green Thumb is in most of the cannabis etfs and top of the list. Its one of the only cannabis stocks that is profitable now and has growth potential at a reasonable value. If down trend continues for 2023, I am interesting in seeing how low it goes and then reviewing its future prospects. 2025, numbers according to anaylsts, are really when Green Thumb will...

optionfarmers

Vix is price of call and put 'at the money" annualized. the current vix yield cut in have gives us an estimate of downside premium put sellers collect and buyers are paying. its near 8%. its probably less because there is a slight upward skew. In the last 20 years, there have been times when vix has spiked very high and this "put yield" has been roughly 40% for...

03:15

optionfarmers

Current apple price may already factor in all the growth for 9 years, if analyst expectation play out. Investors might be better off hoping for a sell off to get a discount from current price.

04:34

optionfarmers

Active accounts declining and merchant loan risk increasing. 5 and 10 year outlook according to analysts is still rosy for the business, despite the chart looking bad.

03:53

optionfarmers

snapchat drops in after hours despite beating numbers. Investor call mentions they are focused on getting free cashflow positive even if it means slower growth.

04:57

optionfarmers

Palantir stock has been volatile and yet the business cashflows havent moved very much this year. The multiple on future values is what makes stocks volatile. The discount rate or hurdle rate is what investors use to price investments appropriately. If a s tock trades too high compared to its realistic future business values, investors may seek other opportunities.

04:38

optionfarmers

Dollar index show rise in currencies like swiss franc. Every bull run in gold and silver has been linked with a rise in swiss franc since they used to have large gold holding. If dollar persists lower and sticky inflation and sticky rates, does that mean that the market is pricing in more debt and money printing? Is the break out in swiss franc marking a green...

04:56

optionfarmers

SPX/SPY future price can be calculated by take earnings and compounding out in time using analyst growth projections. You can do this for any stock. Spx in 5 years maybe 1.6x times higher which is approximately a 5-6% annual return. Historically speaking, sp500 yields 7% to 10% so current prices are promising wimpy returns according to analysts. And if the...

04:57

optionfarmers

made a trading game to play for fun. uses a coin and beans/rice/money. its really a learning tool on choosing a trading system or business model. Let me know what you think.

07:14

optionfarmers

Natural Gas and other commodities offer alternatives to main show which is the stock market indices. The spx sp500 is currently offering very low volatility premiums because its been trending higher in smooth way, and put sellers have crushed premium there. UNG etf offers an alternative potential opportunity for me since premium is high enough and its already...

03:11

optionfarmers

Rivian is still a young company trying to prove its model can make a profit. They have a pile of cash and along way until they can break even in their business model. Tangible book is all tangible assets minus liabilities. Tangible meaning physical and cash like assets but not including intangible like brands and patents. Tangible assets may also be a better...

03:04

optionfarmers

in 2008, high yield b rated bonds went as high 22% in the peak of panic. This also coincided with the peak of panic for stocks. Quality high growth potential stocks sold for fantastic prices and valuations. And it makes sense to not make sense this way. Bonds are debt, and must get paid first as part of normal business operation. Equity gets the excess profits...

optionfarmers

New bull market, or sideways chop as reality hangover incoming. bullish reasons- ai potential end of war asset inflation bearish reasons- rates hurt inflation still here war continues which way is most likely from what you can see? I added crypto and spx stocks, but any mix would have worked as a substitute.

06:47

optionfarmers

Vix, MMTH, and Junk bond yields trade along stocks to add color to this movie. SP500 stocks are businesses with earnings yields that grow over time, but stock dont trade alone in a vacuum. Investors can choose to get in, get out, sell puts, buy bonds, or stain short term money market assets. if we look back at history, we can also compare what different risk...

optionfarmers

Fill in the last comment bubble.... Have you gone a similar ride before? :D

04:27

optionfarmers

Lordstown Motors (RIDE) will be an interest stock to watch because of its balance sheet. They are having production issues with their Foxconn partnership which is forcing them to file for bankruptcy. "Lordstown's move to seek Chapter 11 protection from creditors comes after a dispute with Foxconn over a deal to produce trucks at an assembly plant in Ohio....

optionfarmers

Hot days mean more Air conditioning, which is good for natural gas since its 40% of electricity generation. The Nat gas chart has been in a down trend since losing support in fall of 2022. Will the chart turn directions? Currently its trying to begin higher highs.