optionfarmers

05:58

optionfarmers

Sometimes you see things you cant unsee. Im seeing price action rhyme across various charts. Sure, trading off of pictures and crayons isnt science. But I've also been tracking the valuations and current sentiment readings. I mean, doesnt everybody like sales and discounts anyway. Buffett Indicator says GDP isnt keeping up with current stock market size....

optionfarmers

Bad business model, losing money. But had more assets that was being reflected in the stock. this was not quite a cigar butt net net benjamin graham type stock, but it was low priced compared to liquid assets.

05:37

optionfarmers

Valuation change my life. I was blind and now I see. not kidding. I love technical analysis. I love it more when combined with valuation. Stocks are actual businesses. Charts only track transactions. its like receipts in the trash outside the store :D Warren Buffett used to collect bottle caps as a kid. Then would sort them to find out what drinks were most...

10:42

optionfarmers Updated 

Net net or cigar butt investing is a form of deep value hunting. Stocks so beat up, the market cap is below the value of the assets on the balance sheet. Even trading below the cash on the balance sheet. So beat up, the market is pricing the stock as worth more dead than alive. I thought it was just a thing that happened in history book, or in the depression...

optionfarmers

potentially 1.00 in value and trading 50-60 cents. MSN Emerson Radio has a history of trading below tangible book value when china gets sold and then returning to near book value when china is doing well. Short term assets are higher total liabilities and enterprise value reflects this as well with a negative enterprise value. Disclaimer. Penny stocks are...

19:24

optionfarmers

Is chat gpt and Artificial Intelligence the next boom theme? Why are so many people talking about it recently? How long can this new trend create opportunity for , years, decades? How do we value the opportunity and avoid paying too much? Dont get ripped off and caught up in the hype, use math and valuation to price the reward and risk in a balanced logical...

optionfarmers

The Buffet Indicator is comparing stocks marketcap to gdp. If the economy as measured by GDP isnt growing, then stock tend to bottleneck until growth returns. In previous stock peaks, 2000 and 2007, the price action peaked and retraced causing a bear market trend. To make it memorable, I overlayed disney princess castles, to burn it into memory.

07:26

optionfarmers

As an ex commodities guy, I remember many times when the stock market sold off and how commodity futures behaved prior and concurrently. Often times there has been tops or turns in commodities before there a reversal in stocks. Can this be one of those, or are commodities wrong and getting the economy wrong?

10:42

optionfarmers Updated 

Stocks in good times have a growth premium. In bad times the premium is crushed and the stock is priced more like a value stock. NASDAQ:TSLA

08:32

optionfarmers Updated 

Summary: picking through the garbage to see if any value left for future. bankruptcy or big move in 5-10 years. Rolling short puts into stock for potential change based on new catalyst of joint venture. key concepts: Sizing- Having enough but not too much of an investment idea in a portfolio. Risk/reward- Assigning probabilities to various up and down scenarios....

09:44

optionfarmers

Forward growth seems to be priced back into these hot high volume in the news stocks. Both Tesla and Facebook/meta have almost doubled in the last month. Dividend dow is not shunned and ignored as hot stocks are back in style. Fear in vix and junk bonds is low.

14:51

optionfarmers Updated 

We can get a lot of information from the options market. Right now the options prices are saying there is a lot of uncertainty in Tesla shares. So much uncertainty that the option sellers are price some wild possibilities, like a small chance that Tesla can even go to $10 a share in 1 year (90% lower than current price of 113). TSLA AAPL MCD

04:00

optionfarmers Updated 

The us central banks is tightening money supply to counter the energy markets causing prices to jump high. While it has helped reduce energy prices, its also wrecking global funding markets. Scary stuff. #dollar #oil

11:42

optionfarmers

Benjamin Graham taught Warren Buffett his Net Net liquidation value stock strategy. Graham would hunt for stocks that were so cheap that there was more value in the company if they stopped operations and passed out the assets. Net liquidation value was higher than the price of the whole company. Graham learned this from the hard times of the depression years, but...

14:12

optionfarmers

I used stare at charts and colored bars and tried to find shapes to figure out the next move. Guess what, I missed out on a lot of easy opportunities to hold and ran scared out of good stocks because I didnt understand growth valuation. Stocks will do things that dont make sense on the charts. Stocks are businesses. We really need to understand the companies...

03:14

optionfarmers

with apple, google, and amazon reporting thursday, the market may have been looking for a reason to take profits anyway. But overnight futures were down and possibly these Hong Trade Deficit Number soured the recent bullish mood. Add to all that the issue of the US debt ceiling, investors probably cant wait to reduce risk and look for a new re entry.

39:31

optionfarmers

weekend review of big picture indicators

04:16

optionfarmers

" are you a fundamental investor or a technical chart person". That cant be all there is to know can it? Ive bean trying to make up a fun and easy to remember acronym for describing multiple kinds of analysis for investing. I came up with FATSO. F Fed A Accounting Fundamental T Technical S Social O Options One of the things that bugs me about...