Final setup considerations: - 100 SMA acting as dynamic resistance; - no break above the 50% here as well (a point strong enough to nullify the whole setup, but no risk no gain); I believe we have all that we need for this setup to go according to plan. We must also be aware of the fundamentals of monday and the zone in which the price will start the week. Trade safely!
This beautiful downtrend strenghtened its impulses when it approached the previous support just enough to punch through it. Having broken it and establishing a lower low, we can expect a further move down. Also, it appears that we are currently in the decline phase, having just escaped from a short distribution. I would consider a short position right here, right...
Lower Highs may indicate loss of momentum, but not the start of a downtrend, considering that lower lows have not been established yet. We can see that price found resistance at the 119.000 psychological level, and also at the 61.8% Fibo ratio.
Still no sight of a downtrend (because the last swing low was a higher low), but we can see that price found supply at the 200 SMA and the 112.000 psychological zone, also hitting the 78.6% as a resistance.
If the actual daily candle closes below the previous support, then we may think about the current situation as the start of the decline phase, also confirming that the March-May zone was actually a distribution. Also, price found supply at the 100 SMA and the 50% Fibo retracement.
Price has got what it needs for the downtrend to pierce through the previous support zone, and by judging the strength of the momentum of the last 3 candles, it might just do so. I expect the swings to become more aggressive after this move.
Price has plummeted from the last touch of the 50% Fibo and it has also pierced through the previous support, developing lots of decline momentum. Furthermore, notice the supply found at the 200 SMA and the 110.000 psychological zone.
I missed the perfect entry, but the price still got lots of momentum to continue down. Wait for a correction/lower high for better entries.
AUDUSD gives us some signals of a downtrend end, possible accumulation. Pay attention to the switch in momentum and to the lower timeframes. The little higher high is more visible on the 30m. Also, be aware of the psychological zone of 0.693.
EURAUD may be in a distribution phase. A sell position is only valid if a lower low is established. Please also check the lower timeframes.
The aggressive april downtrend seems to have found a support at the 75.50 psychological level, flattening its last 2 impulses and failing to establish another lower low. This may foreshadow a change in momentum or a simple exhaustion. Notice that it did not make another higher high, so this may only be valid if that previous high is broken. Once it does, I will...
AUDCHF shows a decrease in momentum, possibly a change in direction, shown by the flattening of impulses. The 200 & 50 SMAs have now become resistances, price setting a new support at around 0.72300 psychological zone. If it breaks below that support, then the setup is a valid short. If not, I will invalidate it.
Educational/ testing purposes only. No market insights.
Educational/testing purposes only. No market insights.
Educational/testing purposes only. No market insights.
Educational/testing purposes only. No market insights.
Educational/testing purposes only. No market insights.
Educational / testing ourposes only. No market insights.