paxroma

paxroma

Out of all longs (including two taken 12 hours prior to this post). I really don’t like Monday’s (today) candle, particularly in the context of Friday’s candle and last week’s close. Late buyers are sandwiched and that is a source of selling pressure. In the broader market, breakevens (purple) look like they’re about to roll over. With the Aug 10 CPI (8.5%)...

paxroma

Life at its core is about trade-offs. Even if you could have everything you’ve ever wanted, you cannot have more than twenty-four hours a day. And so everyday, you make trade-offs, consciously and subconsciously. Do I watch another episode or go to bed? Etc etc For Chairman Powell, it is increasingly looking like a trade-off between saving the global economy or...

paxroma

The latest (27 July) FOMC press conference COULD be the end of a pullback and the start of a rally in precious metals, as reality starts to set in. (See blue circles) (In purple)10-year breakeven inflation rate. (See next chart)

paxroma

Classic head and shoulders. I initially typed out a large thesis then my battery died so let me summarise. A) ZERO interest rates, 8.6% inflation. B) Putin will kill German industry, whether through complete gas restriction or keeping prices exorbitant. C) Ray Dalio opened a $10.5b short on European equities.

paxroma

Firstly, open a euro/usd chart on your device, set it to MONTHLY timeframe, clear your chart (if need be) and zoom out…yeah…parity…and beyond. (see next chart)

paxroma

I went short on the morning of the SNB’s 50bp rate hike…no, I was not expecting a hike, purely technical. As you can see, we have held the blue vwap (hike), excluding one false break. Current target is bottom of current zone (0.97768). Truth is, amidst the global macroeconomic backdrop and brewing EZ energy crisis, a hawkish SNB is the icing.

paxroma

The SNB spent the last decade fighting a strong Swiss franc…it now welcomes one (or at the very least, is indifferent). Expect more weakness. (see next chart)