pogicraft

pogicraft Updated 

Generally broad but I'm feeling pretty confident about this much. We'll start at $444 tomorrow, might be a little rocky but general sentiment will be bullish. Slowdowns are scarier than rate hikes/inflation and we'll be looking up till like the middle of March. This at least lays out some super oversold levels, even for those who hate risk and some levels where...

pogicraft

Tons of signals.... plenty of money to be made.... no confirmation, no impetus, no conviction yet on the next movement.

pogicraft

Today is the kind of day we switch to a chart like this. It's got multiple timeframes indicating different phases of previous movements into potential future date ranges. It's got lines to keep an eye on, both potential resistance and support lines, or target price lines. And I think between volume yesterday and today, markets are short term done with being sad...

pogicraft

If you want to play the market, you'll take risks. If you've got a couple months timeframe, it may be a good time to begin your entries. If you've got a couple years, I'm really not sure if I have advice for you. All I should say is that it will bounce back and sometime before 2024, the stock market will be higher than it is today. And I can only 99% be sure of that much.

pogicraft

The timing seems all wrong. If you're trading earnings, this is your moment. If you're trading technicals, you might have to wait for a pattern to form. One is starting but the timing seems all wrong -- we'd call for a short target of $466 on Friday the 14th. But bank earnings come out that day, and next week. And you know they're going to be great. Not only that...

pogicraft Updated 

I recognize that everyone wants the simple answers. I recognize everyone has the same question -- What will stocks do in a rising rate environment everything else equal? Probably this site will get popular as people wonder if technical analysis can help answer that question. But by the time it can, most of the movement will be over. Dam, I need to finish this...

pogicraft Updated 

I think we've been hit with too much at once. Omicron, tapering, continuously funky economic data. There was supposed to be more time. Oh yeah and oil prices and treasury yields have come back down again. Unfortunately it looks like (expectations wise) people are expecting us to switch from tapering to stimulus again but we didn't have enough time to reload and...

pogicraft Updated 

Way too oversold with a large number of retail investors running. It's hitting pretty solid support and nothing bad has happened... maybe on options expiration week it'll trend down again but I'd be nervous going bearish from here. Now if it hits $423~ thats a different story. But we got a our correction, all the news is negative, and again, nothing bad has...

pogicraft

Medium length short by the way, as in some kind of dip or correction before Dec. Manufacturing and sentiment have waned but are still strong and even though inflation is up, profits remain high. But as I've said before, everyone wants to wait until the last minute to sell and prices are determined by MM and overseas and we've been going up so everyone has been...

pogicraft Updated 

So far so good, but I'm staying neutral because I'm not sure the path we'll take but between multiple time frames I'd say we're going towards $430 on SPY on Aug 6th. Maybe I'm right, maybe I'm wrong, just know I'm cash and watching until we get some stronger signals.

pogicraft Updated 

I had urged caution and patience in my last post on Sunday July 10th and forgot to change it from private to public. I'm trying to repost a screenshot here.

pogicraft

It's not really about whether rate hikes will affect the economy or the stock market/valuations. It's not really about whether or not we'll have a taper tantrum. It's about the expectations and risks and worries of these things. Maybe in the 2-5 year range its about the reality of them, but this chart really ends Jan 2022. Before then, we'll have earnings, a...

pogicraft

oh what a fun time to be had. Everyone knows (a bit more clearly) that the Fed is moving up its tapering and uneasing schedule. But there seem to be many that want to grab as much long as they can, seeing the end over the horizon. "Yeah but not yet" seems to be the motto right now -- that coupled with falling interest rates and an uncertain labor market. So have...

pogicraft

I'd urge caution. I don't know how earnings season will go yet, but there will be plenty of opportunities between tomorrow's announcement of nothing to the beginning of earnings season to play the technicals. Other than that, itll float higher or lower and either way not much money to be made.

pogicraft

1. omg the spam on this site 2. i don't know what this chart means 3. it does make me doubt the expected seasonal drop in july 4. i do see a correction happening before schools reopen in september -- after the easy answers in this recovery have already passed 5. except for analyst warnings/notes/concerns i don't see actual impact of inflation until next year 6....

pogicraft

I'm not sure what the general view of 'transitionary' is but we seem to have accepted the idea that inflation won't be a bad thing as long as everything is generally positive (employment, sales etc) It's probably going to go higher than $430 before August but the chart didn't want to stretch that high. Basically we tried to do a leg lower several times this week,...

pogicraft Updated 

June seems to be mediocre month for the stock market, maybe we'll get some housing data that says inflations heating up? But July is supposed to be spectacular, and the timing couldn't be better -- July 4th + reopening = speculation heaven. August and September are usually bad though so maybe, along with earnings, that's when everyone comes back from summer camp...

pogicraft Updated 

Two things I see possible here, this is the more bearish version. And that's the more bullish version. Either way, its obvious that deep pockets keep dumping stock but whoever's buying them up has enough money to continue for a little bit. This was seen last week when housing numbers and producer prices made markets go up, this week when high inflation in...