pogicraft

pogicraft Updated 

btw, here come all the I told you so's from the bears (to which I roll my eyes) but I do think that a 5% dip wouldn't be the end of the world and that takes us all the way back to $397, while a more reasonable 3% would have us around my target profit of $405/$407. And yes we're frothy. And yes we've already accounted for the best possible recovery. But actually it...

pogicraft Updated 

Of course I hear a lot of you like the Fibonacci retracement lines and so this is a Fibonacci of a Fibonacci from the linear regression line starting at the end of the day Jan 3rd... oh god! The capitol freedom riots! It's all true! I'm a believer!

pogicraft

Now till May 7th (or 11th, or even 18th) not financial advise but if you believe the lines I've drawn out here, then it could be a decent time to consider a spread, with a slight bias to the downside. But also major upside compared to options costs right now.

pogicraft

If you look at where we've been, to where we are, in a broader span of a month and a half (say after the Jan/feb jitters petered out) The blue line is my original trajectory, with purple high and low bounds The black lines are a possible new forming Least Squares Moving Average Linear Regression channel And the Green is just a fantasy really where everything I...

pogicraft

I think I got enough to plan out my week with a fair amount of certainty. Volume's back a little, people are jittery but people are still looking for dips to buy in on. btw, there is an outside chance at an extreme move to hit $401 this week, can't bet on it but wouldn't count it out either. That could take the whole week to ride out if it happens.

pogicraft

Maybe we're all correct. Maybe we are really optimistic and headed for $370ish again and maybe we will see $420 before then. And maybe we will slowly slink around while volatility increases. Note: I originally had the bottom of the megaphone like, twice as wide but as no pattern has emerged to support it, I cut back a bit. So for example, next week, instead of...

pogicraft

It's true what they say, what's good for the real economy isn't always good for stocks. What if we're downgraded to the new trajectory now and never go back to seeing what we could have known had we not had a pandemic? Despite the trillions in stimulus spending? I worry that our hopes have gone up too high and a reversion to normal growth would see shifts from...

pogicraft

I carry in some of my biases from March and this chart is probably too vague to be of use to anyone. But We're heading into a new month, a new quarter, and I wanted to leave a paper trail.

pogicraft Updated 

This is a quick chart of whats likely to come, not as well researched and in depth as the one from March 7th but I wanted to make a note before I shut down for the night. It's been an 'interesting' grind upwards and things still stand 50/50.

pogicraft Updated 

well, I'm bullish -- just a quick chart to emphasize my official change of position as $SPY manages to hold above this line. Hope it won't be too boring... and hope that this isn't one of those times when I'm the last one to become bullish and therefore its going to be bearish. But I think people have reorganized their portfolios and we're going up like we were...

pogicraft

Man, markets really don't like it when that guy speaks. (Had to do a little finagling to get the slopes to match up, but interesting to note that they almost do) Still, probably just a breather.

pogicraft Updated 

Wow, if I do a simple copy paste onto $SPY we easily make the line above $400. And settle downward around $350, which some others have been calling for for a while now.

pogicraft

Probably imo what I think we'll see; a little more weakness followed by a bounce, and most likely another high top before May.

pogicraft

Hey look guys, I made some lines on this chart :) But seriously, this is just a reference for later, I'm going to erase the lines now

pogicraft

I think to prepare ourselves for the next level of technical analysis, and to separate the winners from the chaff, I'm going to compile all the weirdest charts I've seen during my time in the markets and use them as a test/learning tool. And this is the one that gave me the idea. Oh, and learning things aside, I think this week has marked another step in the...

pogicraft

I've seen a lot of $SPY analysis on this site. So many people also try to call for the big moves, especially on the downside. And a lot of people are WTF about the current state of the market. And yes, it has been a wild 2 weeks, or maybe 2021 all in all so far. And yes, volume and big percent moves are way down since 2011, maybe even since 2008. And most of the...