priceactiontds

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Neutral around 21900. 21700 was the lowest I expected and we printed 21716.5. Weekly close around 21900 is the most likely outcome for me. We have no acceptance above 21900 and none below 21800 as well. A trend day tomorrow would surprise me. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 21700 - 22100 bull...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Much more reasons to buy below 23900 than to sell. I do think bulls showed strength today by printing 24193 and this could become a lower low, major trend reversal. Long stops have to be 23750 but there is decent chance could get there as well. I still think they will fail at the gap again and market will close the...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Range is 21500 - 22000 for a week now. Neutral but selling new highs and buying every pullback has been profitable for quite a while now. It will end some day but likely not today. Bulls finally want the 22000 print and after so many tries they still could not print it. It’s painful to watch. Fading the extremes was...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Wedge bull flag, I expect 24000 and 24500 to get hit this week, everything above and below those prices would be a surprise to me. We are also forming a triangle with the bull trend line and I expect bulls to get the breakout above. current market cycle: broad bull channel key levels: 23700 - 24500 bull case:...

priceactiontds

Good Day and I hope you are well. comment: Last week I wrongly wrote that earnings season will start in June, sorry about that. It’s mid July. So what to do at 24300? Market finds acceptance above 24000 but we have made 500 points to the upside in the past 3 weeks. At some point bulls will let it go and reality will set in. Market is holding above the daily 20ema...

priceactiontds

Good Day and I hope you are well. comment: Same as last week, markets are all very similar. Nq is also in a wedge right under the big round number. I doubt bears can prevent the bulls from printing 22000 but bulls have certainly tried long enough now. Either they get it next week, or it won’t happen for couple of weeks/months. current market cycle: trading range...

priceactiontds

Good Day and I hope you are well. comment: Time to be very cautious as a bear and hopeful as a bull. 3 clear legs down and the third could not make a new low. Now the market closed at the weekly high and it’s a fitting place for a reversal. 65 should be the highest bears should allow it. If bulls get follow-through beyond, this is a buy with stop 59.5. The target...

priceactiontds

Good Day and I hope you are well. comment: 3 legs down, bull flag trend line break but confirmation is only above 106840. It’s still much more bullish than bearish, since bears could not close the gap down to the April high 97915. Market expects a re-test of 110000 or higher and this breakout of the bull flag is as textbook perfect as it gets. Only a daily close...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Good day for the bears but if you look at the daily or 4h chart, do you really want to sell this? Of course not. Most traders will wait and see where the bears fail to long this for another try at 22000. Technically we had at least 3 legs up in this wedge and 21936 qualifies as a top. I would still not sell this yet....

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: When in doubt, zoom out. Market is leaving gaps below and daily bar closed at the high (at least for futures). Bulls will likely get another spike above 24430 to run the stops but I don’t know if they can get more. Buying above 24200 is there but lackluster but that’s still enough for the bulls because bears are not...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bulls buy every dip and so should you, until it stops working. Clear target above and also clear invalidation level below us. Trade the wedge. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 20700 - 22000 bull case: Bulls will likely get a third leg up tomorrow and if they want it bad, we could accelerate upwards...

priceactiontds

Good Day and I hope you are well. comment: First weekly bear bar since end of March but I doubt we just go down. Much more likely is a trading range until more bulls doubt we get above 112k. Can you buy 103k? Only with a stop maybe 98k since the risk of hitting 99.9k are too big to have a stop there. But that trade is much more likely to succeed than shorting...

priceactiontds

Good Day and I hope you are well. comment: 3 weeks inside a tight range but market keeps getting rejected under the weekly 20ema and it’s consecutive bear bars now. Below 59.8 I favor the bears for more downside. current market cycle: monthly time frame is a broad bear channel - weekly tf is a bear wedge - daily is a trading range key levels: 55 - 64 bull...

priceactiontds

Good Day and I hope you are well. comment: Not much difference to the dax or sp500, so you can skip the text and just watch the chart. Should look similar to you and you should trade it the same. If you have not read my dax update, please go read it. current market cycle: trading range key levels for next week: 20700 - 22000 bull case: Bulls are trapping bears...

priceactiontds

Good Day and I hope you are well. comment: Max bearishness last Friday but markets refuse to go down and take tariff risks at face value. Q2 earnings will tell the story so buckle up. Earnings season kicks off in about 3 weeks. Until then the next big event will be in 8 days when 50% EU tariffs may or may not come into play. Until then I don’t expect a big move...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: I don’t know what’s more likely to happen tomorrow and every time I feel that way, market is in a trading range and most likely neutral. Big up, big down, big confusion. Read some Al Brooks. Volume was big today but given that bears only managed to close 60 points below Wednesday, what did they achieve? RTH session...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Higher highs and higher lows. Focus on the easy trades. Can only get bearish with consecutive 15m or 1h bars below 24000 and for now that is unlikely. Bulls bought 24000 the whole week so look for longs. current market cycle: broad bull channel key levels: 23000 - 24500 bull case: As long as the bull gap 23700 -...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Back where we started on Friday and I do think one more big leg down will finally be enough for the persistent btfd crowd to scale it down a bit. So far it has been profitable and that’s why bears need a big gap that does not close or otherwise we just continue sideways to up. Bulls need to get trapped for this to...