priceactiontds

priceactiontds 17 hours ago

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Big day for the bulls tomorrow. US markets rallied hard while this closed neutral but the rejection above 23300 made this day good for the bears. Bulls need to stay above 22954 and bears below 23200. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 22900 - 24000 bull case: Bulls have no more room to the downside....

priceactiontds Mar 23

Good Day and I hope you are well. comment: Neutral week. Bulls retested the ath and could not print a new one and bears failed at 23k. Do not make these range bound markets harder than they are. You have no edge on predicting where the breakout will happen. So trade the range and if the breakout happens, wait for confirmation and join along. current market...

priceactiontds Mar 23

Good Day and I hope you are well. comment: Bulls were not strong enough to trap late bears and every bear selling below 19700 had multiple chances of exiting break-even or even with a profit. I still think we need to see a bigger bounce but for now market is in balance at 19800, which is bad for the bulls. We need to form a proper channel down and going sideways...

priceactiontds Mar 23

Good Day and I hope you are well. comment: 4h chart tells the story the best. No acceptance below 66.5 and above 68. Bulls managed to get the second weekly bull bar but they have gained almost nothing. It could continue up and keep the multi-year contraction alive, since the double bottom at 65 looks good. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 65 -...

priceactiontds Mar 23

Good Day and I hope you are well. comment: Bulls are still too weak to close strongly above 84k but they kept the market above 80k. Another neutral week which is good for the bears. We are getting close to the big bear trend line, where I expect market to create another strong bear leg down to 75k or lower. Plan did not change for the past 2 weeks. Above 87k we...

priceactiontds Mar 20

Good Evening and I hope you are well. nasdaq e-mini futures comment: Market is contracting and I highly doubt tomorrow will bring the breakout. Next week we will either see the beginning of a big second leg down for the bears or a higher pullback to maybe 21k. The past days market has gone nowhere and mean reversion was the money printer 19900 is the fair price...

priceactiontds Mar 19

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: We oscillate around 23300 and not moving much. It’s a bull flag but one that has been going on for too long now. The longer we move sideways, the more neutral the market is. Clear invalidation prices for both sides. Breakout above the bull flag and 23400 could mean another try at 500 and if they crack that, 24k...

priceactiontds Mar 18

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Neutral. Today was really bad for the bulls. The rejection from 20000 should not have go so deep. I now think we will likely chop between 19000 - 20000 until Opex. Bulls had the momentum on their side and the breakout above 20100 was strong enough to go higher but here we are. Lows 19346 have to hold or we flush to...

priceactiontds Mar 17

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Weekly outlook gave clear invalidation points and bulls broke above. We have a clear measuring gap down to 22800 now and until that is closed, it’s bullish all the way to new ath and maybe 24k. current market cycle: trading range but we could see the resumption of the bull trend tomorrow key levels: 22260 -...

priceactiontds Mar 16

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Wild week where market reversed the huge selling on Friday and the daily bear bar looks more bullish than bearish. 23k is the battleground right now. If bears keep it a lower high, we could test further down but if they don’t, bulls could try and go for 24k. News certainly help in fueling this right now. current...

priceactiontds Mar 16

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Let’s take this from the weekly chart. Market has not dipped below the 2024-09 low but that was way too much to expect for bears. 14% down in 4 weeks straight selling is beyond unsustainable but it’s also very very unlikely that this was it and we just go up again. My thesis is a new bear trend until proven...

priceactiontds Mar 16

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Weekly chart. First green week after 7 consecutive bear weeks. Astonishing eh. Weak bull bar anyhow and sideways is more likely than anything above 70, for now at least. We have now seen higher highs but the 2024-04 highs were not broken and market failed below 80. So the multi-year contraction is still valid. Same...

priceactiontds Mar 16

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Trading range week is behind us. Targets below are the same. 75k and maybe 70k. Bulls need to claim 95k again. I don’t have much to write about this right now. It’s a clear bear trend but it’s trying to bottom out above 75k. Next dip below 80k is the most important one. If bears fail again, we could try to 100k...

priceactiontds Mar 13

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bulls can’t get anything going that’s not sold heavily. I can’t see this not closing at the lows tomorrow. The target is obvious, 2024-09 low at 18867. The tight bear channel started at 22245. This selling without any meaningful bounce is so weird and overdone, it’s hard to grasp. We went from melting higher on...

priceactiontds Mar 12

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bulls making higher lows and closing 4h bars at the highs. They need a 1h close above 22900 for more upside. Until the bear trend line is broken, bears are still in control though. 22600 is a bad spot to trade. Either wait for a bigger pullback or a breakout. We are currently inside the big bear channel and a...

priceactiontds Mar 11

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bears are clearly in control and we have two bear trend lines above us. One around 22600 and the bigger one around 23000. Bulls need to claim 22900 and bears obviously want 22k. Absolutely no idea what we get first. Buying volume increased big time at previous low around 22300 but overall market sentiment has to...

priceactiontds Mar 10

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Strongest bear bar after a 11 bar bear micro channel on the daily chart, that broke below the big bull trend line. I will never see this as even more bearish. Much more likely is that we are very close to an intermediate bottom and squeeze shorts big time. Only looking to long this. After a decent bounce we can talk...

priceactiontds Mar 9

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Market had big swings up and down last week but went nowhere after Monday’s gap up. Can’t be anything but neutral. The bull channel is valid until broken so bulls remain in control. current market cycle: Bull trend until consecutive daily closes below 22000 key levels: 22000 - 24000 bull case: Above 23500 we could...