priceactiontds

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax futures - Neutral between 20000 - 20100, Bearish below 20000. Bears tried to break down the bear flag and make new lows but failed above 19900 and bulls retraced 50% of it. Good for bears is that they kept the 1h 20ema resistance and xetra closed the year below 20000, which is a sell signal going into January....

priceactiontds

tl;dr sp500 e-mini futures - Bearish. Good selling today and bulls could not close above the breakout price around 5990. The close was near the open of the week and since we had a big gap down, this is bearish confirmation. Below 5900 this could very well close the year below 5860, which would be a nasty bearish reversal bar on the monthly chart and a clear sell...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: I’d love to see bitcoin below 70000 in Q1 2025 and MicroStrategy file for bankruptcy in 2025. I think this would be fun. Yes. Market made almost 600% from the 2022-12 low and about 62% of it after Trump was elected again. The bull trend before that, was from 2020 to 2021 where btc made about 1700% - followed by a...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Probably the most boring outlook to write. Oil has been in a triangle since 2023-09 and we will see a bigger breakout in 2025. To which side? Absolutely no idea. Oil has been stuck inside a 10% range for the past 10 weeks and it’s almost not possible that the range contracts further. We have nested triangles and...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: If you have read part 1 of 2, much of the following will be the same. Nasdaq has now gained 80%+ since the 2022-10 lows. Again, if you think it’s more likely that we will do another 15%+ up next year because this time it’s different, I don’t have much for you and you can stop reading now. Now matter how you draw...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax futures - Neutral. Bears defended the Globex gap and market stayed below the lower bear trend line, which we broke below on Thursday. Very good for the bears but since we opened and closed near Friday’s close, market is in balance for now. Bears need to break below 20000 and bulls above 20150. Clear support and...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500 e-mini futures - Neutral. We stayed below Friday’s high but bulls had a really bullish close. Until they get a strong move above 6050, I lean neutral. Above 6050 there is no more resistance until 6100. Bears something below 5965 but for now they could be very happy with any daily close below 6000. current...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: I know it’s an ugly chart, bear with me. Gold spent 2020 - 2024 inside a 570 point range and started the recent bull trend with the breakout in 2024-03. Since then Gold has made 30%, which is more than unusual to say the least. From 2018 to 2020 it made 50% but only because it lost 36% from 2011 to 2018. Market...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: For the sp500 the start of the bull trend is a bit less clear as for dax. My take is that it started with the 2023-10 low and before that was still the big trading range the main pattern. Does it matter if my wave thesis is off for W1 or where W4 ended? I don’t think it does. My targets (obvious magnets) would...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. dax xetra - outlook 2025 comment: We look at the chart from the beginning of the current bull trend in 2022-10. Dax has gained 71% while German GDP is now negative for two consecutive years. The bull trend has 3 clear and big legs up. The upper and lower trend lines were respected and we have seen an acceleration upwards in...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax futures - Neutral. Bears confirmed the sell-off and bears are hoping for a second leg down. I lean to closing tomorrow near 20000 instead of a big second leg down tomorrow but I am open to surprises. Anything above 20150 would surprise me. comment : Bear confirmation and I got 2 measured move targets between...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold - Bearish. I doubt we can close the week below 2560 but we now have a giant bear gap between 2615 - 2652. No interested in selling this tomorrow but if we close the week below 2600, the bull trend is gone for good. comment : No matter what you think China is doing with Gold, this market is going down. We are...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax futures - Neutral. Big up, big down, big confusion. Can the selling continue and accelerate? Yes. Can we also see a bigger bounce from 20000? Also yes. Not as easy to trade as you might think because bounces can be big and you have to trade really small. Huge volatility is not the time to swing for the fences....

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500 e-mini futures - Neutral. Selling was too strong to be just a pullback in this bull trend. Best guess is that the trend is over and we are in a huge two-legged correction down to 5800 or lower. 5927 was the low from my W2 and we can expect sideways to up around this price. The lower bull wedge trend line should...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500 e-mini futures - Neutral. Prices are messed up due to contract change but my lower targets were hit and market is in balance at now 6140ish. Huge support 6115 for the bulls and bears need a strong 1h bar close below it for lower prices. Bulls are in full control when market can only go sideways right under the...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax futures - Neutral. Third consecutive bear bar on the daily chart but the selling is weak. Bears barely push the market down and we are still 200 points above 20000. The bear channel held but chances are decent that it breaks tomorrow and we either go more sideways 20200 - 20400 or test 20500 again. comment: ...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Clear channel upwards and we will likely hit 110k over the next days. The channel is wide enough to trade in both directions. Once market breaks below the closes bull trend line and the 4h 20ema, a short is the much bitter trade from a r:r perspective. current market cycle: Still a bull trend as long as above...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Another mind boggling rally with a strong break above 22000. Volume is atrocious but that does not matter one bit as long as we continue up. Market has now broken above at least 2 bigger patterns on my charts and every time a market does that, I expect it to fail, rather than to be the start of a new and stronger...