priceactiontds

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: W3 was climactic and there could be a possible W5. Right now we are in W4 and the given range will likely be respected and not broken. I will most likely mean reverse to 20000 over the next days. current market cycle: strong bear - W3 concluded - W5 possibly down to 16000 if we get one but W3 could have been the end...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. #mcl1 - wti crude oil futures comment: Strong momentum for the bears but I have zero interest in selling where all bears for the past 2 years lost money. Not much more to say about this. Wait for strong buying and join but market will likely do some more testing of 60 first and then sideways before we can go higher. Anything...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: W3 has likely concluded and I expect the same price action as for W2. Market is respecting technicals precisely. Look at the chart and the obvious numbers and lines. We can always do an over- or undershoot but for now I don’t think looking for shorts after two days of crashing make any sense. current market cycle:...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: By now you could likely be crash-news-fatigued and I get it. I keep it short and technical. My base assumption is that all markets are heading for their 50% retracements from the covid lows. If no bigger positive news will stop it, we will get there with the next leg down. For now market is tough since 20500 is...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. #btcusd - bitcoin comment: The move I was writing and have been expecting for multiple weeks started today and 75k is the target. I won’t repeat all of it. Chart is clear and now it’s on bears to make meaningful lower lows. Below 70k you will likely see some panic. current market cycle: bear trend key levels: 70k -...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: 18200 is the next huge support and it’s likely that we get there tomorrow and there I would conclude my W3 thesis. Doing another red day into the weekend seems most reasonable because who the duck wants to hold on to longs in the current environment? current market cycle: strong bear - W3 ongoing - target is...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: This is the event bears have prayed for, full blown trade war and this market is not positioned for any downside risk. Let’s see where we close this week. Below 21500 would be amazing but let’s close below 22000 first. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 21800 - 23000 bull case: Tbh, best bulls can...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bear trend line from 20536 broken again and market is probing higher to remain in a trading range at the lows. Bears need lower lows below 19300 tomorrow and bulls want to continue with the higher highs and higher lows. As long as the big bear trend line from 20452 holds, bears remain in control and see this as a...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Not much to add on top of the tl;dr. Bear trend line is the do or die moment for bears tomorrow. Has to stay below 22600 or we go higher again. Very important day tomorrow, which will set the impulse for the next weeks. News could somewhat help the bears, since the global trade war is raging. current market cycle:...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Textbook breakout below the bear flag and market is likely on it’s way testing previous lows below 80000. My target 75000 or even 70000 remain the same. What would bulls need to stop this? I highly doubt they can produce a bull surprise above 90000, so if they would go sideways above 80000 for the next 1-3 days, it...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bulls continued and surprised a bit with the follow-through. 3 consecutive bullish weeks now and market has touched 70 multiple times. 70-72 is my neutral target while leaning bullish below 68. Volume is atrocious but market is free to do whatever. Could see a retest of 66 as well as going higher for 72. Absolutely...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Last week I wrote that we need a proper channel down and the past week was the worst case scenario for the bulls. We could not even get to the 50% retracement and turned down violently again. There is a small chance for the bulls to make this a double bottom and go sideways but as of now that is very very low...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: First 3 trading days of the week bulls tried to break above and failed at every higher high, printing an expanding triangle, which broke to the downside on Thursday. Outlook is tough. I want to lean bearish but there is still bigger buying coming through at new lows and betting on the bear breakout is just not a...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Many potential trend lines that market could respect tomorrow. We are in an expanding triangle, a broad bull channel and the big bear trend on the daily chart. No idea what we get tomorrow so I lean neutral around 20000. current market cycle: strong bear trend but currently in W2 (above 20700 that thesis drops to a...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Strong bears appeared again, volume picked up and we are down 565 points from the high. Big bull trap and these moves tend to get follow-through. Next big support is 22700 and then 22500 and I favor the lower price tomorrow, anything else would surprise me. The big spending bill is priced in and market could not make...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Volume is garbage but we are moving higher. Likely more due to strong bears stepping aside rather then strong bulls buying. 20700 is the 50% and we will likely get there over the next 1-2 days. I do think bears have to prevent the bulls from getting a 4th consecutive daily bull bar or more bulls could join and more...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Big day for the bulls tomorrow. US markets rallied hard while this closed neutral but the rejection above 23300 made this day good for the bears. Bulls need to stay above 22954 and bears below 23200. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 22900 - 24000 bull case: Bulls have no more room to the downside....

priceactiontds

Good Day and I hope you are well. comment: Neutral week. Bulls retested the ath and could not print a new one and bears failed at 23k. Do not make these range bound markets harder than they are. You have no edge on predicting where the breakout will happen. So trade the range and if the breakout happens, wait for confirmation and join along. current market...