priceactiontds

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Another huge bull surprise last week and we made a higher high above the 2024-10 high 77.38. A measured move target is 78.04 and the high was 77.86. Close is always close enough. I would like to see another try at 78 and another huge rejection for me to short. I do think shorting right now is too early but buying...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: 91000 - 100000 is still the range and the low held. Bears need a daily close below 91000 for more downside but until then, we are range-bound. Upside max should be 100k. We have been in this range for two months now, I won’t over analyze it. I have given my longer-term opinion in my year-end special and I stick to...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr oil - Bearish but only slightly and probably better after a lower high above 74. Bears broke the bull trend line and made new lows. 75 got 2 big rejections and we either continue down or we do a lower high below 75.29. Selling below 73.5 has not been profitable for a week, so don’t try be the first. On the daily chart...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr oil - Bearish but only slightly and probably better after a lower high above 74. Bears broke the bull trend line and made new lows. 75 got 2 big rejections and we either continue down or we do a lower high below 75.29. Selling below 73.5 has not been profitable for a week, so don’t try be the first. On the daily chart...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold - Neutral. Higher highs and higher lows but bulls are barely advancing the price. We have still not touched 2700 and even if we get there, I think we find more sellers than buyers and continue sideways in a bigger range. Every new high is sold and bulls will only try so many times before they give up. Bears need...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax futures - Bearish af. Bulls overextended and squeezed probably most shorts. High tick was exactly the same price 20533 we did before the big sell-off down to 19831. Small chance bulls retest 20500 tomorrow but I don’t care. I will continue to scale in and out of shorts with a stop 21000. Downside potential is to...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr bitcoin - Bearish. Yesterday’s bullish read correct and I would write it that way again. Bears took control of the market with the break below 101k and we just melted lower. We now have a perfect head & shoulders pattern with a target that aligns with my overall read and year end comment but confirmation will only be...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500 e-mini futures - Neutral. Close does not help anyone. Below daily ema but above 6k. Same reasoning as for dax. We could do a retest or higher before we go lower again. The lower high 6107 will probably hold. Bears want to trade down to 5930 or lower again. Clear trading range price action where the legs inside...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax futures - Neutral between 20200 and 20300. Bullish above for retest 20360/20400 and bearish if we break the nearest bull trend line. Max for bulls should be 20460ish and bears could get all the way down to 20000 again. Both sides have reasonable arguments and I don’t know if we test higher before lower. What I do...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr bitcoin: Neutral. 91000 - 100000 is the range and market is going back and forth in it. No deeper meaning to this since we have been in it for 3 weeks now, which means the market is in balance. We will likely see a breakout next week and both sides have equal chances as of now. comment: 2024 closed at 93401, so my...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr wti crude oil futures: Bullish until bears come around. Big bull surprise to start 2025 with strong follow through above 72. Market has still a bit room to the bear trend line, that started in 2024-04, around 75. I can’t see this breaking above 77.38 and I have my doubts about a break of the trend line, so longs are...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold futures: Neutral but slightly bearish if bears get follow through on Monday. Market tested the 50% of the last leg down and found more sellers than buyers. Bulls now have 3 pushed up which went nowhere as of now. We also closed right at the daily 20ema so this is as neutral as it gets. If bulls get a daily close...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500 e-mini futures: Neutral. Much less bearish than dax because the pull-back above 6100 was so strong. We are right below the most important price 6000 and with it the bear case lives or dies. If bulls can go above again and test the bear trend line around 6050, the odds for the bears become really bad. Much more...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax xetra: Bulls printed 5 consecutive bull bars but price went nowhere. We are still below the daily 20ema and this looks like a shallow pull-back in a bear trend. Bears need a strong close below 19800 to confirm it. If bulls close above 20000 again, bears could give up and we test higher again. Market is in breakout...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr oil - Neutral. 4th consecutive bull bar on the daily chart and it’s the biggest of the 4. We are close to a bear trend line from the triangle (depending on how you want to draw it) and I rather think this is the climactic end of the rally for now and we pull back more. I can be totally wrong and market breaks above...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold - Bullish. Clear breakout on the 4h tf and market looks like it wants to retest 2700. The triangle is the dominant pattern for now and there is no more resistance until 2700 for the bulls. Market kept above the 1h 20ema since the breakout and any long close to it is reasonable until it’s clearly broken. Bears...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and happy new year. comment: Xetra (futures are currently trading 143 points higher) closed the year 2024 below 20000 and bulls could not get a decent bounce during the most bullish days of the year. My base assumption for the next days/weeks is a bigger second leg down which will leave no doubt that this bull trend is over and investors would be...

priceactiontds

Good Evening and happy new year. comment: Bears have all the arguments on their side now. Santa rally was drowned and market formed a textbook head & shoulders pattern. My lowest target in my year end special was around 5300 and the h&s target is 5400. The yearly close below 6000 was very important for the bears because now we have multiple confirmations of the...