quantguy

quantguy

A stronger dollar and hawkish Fed outlook has impacted the crypto market across the board, with Litecoin plummeting from the $60's. We appeared to have good support there for quite some time, but $61.75 proved to be prohibitive, and we caved through to lower levels. We have been highlighting $55.84 as a lower bound for weeks now, and sure enough, this is the...

quantguy

Ethereum has fallen dramatically lower after first rejecting the $2K's. After that, the $1800's seemed to hold well, but recently have given way to the upper $1700's. We anticipated this yesterday, and noted that there is a cluster of levels beginning at $1748. We should have strong support beginning here. The last of these levels is $1653, which we expect to...

quantguy

Bitcoin has plummeted, likely due to a stronger dollar, and hawkish Fed expectations. Wednesday's Retail Sales data demonstrated the impact of high inflation, and the probability of another 75bps rate hike is about 50%. We smashed through $22.4K, and are hovering in the range between $20.7K and $22.4K. The Kovach OBV took a very sharp turn down, and we will see...

quantguy

The DXY has broken out further, likely with the anticipation of a more hawkish Fed, after retail sales on Wednesday have confirmed the impact of inflation on the economy. We have broken through 107.20, and seem to be headed for the 108's, currently in the upper 107 handle at the time of this writing. If we can break into the 108's, then 108.50 is the next...

quantguy

Oil has found support at $85.55, but is having difficulty ascending to higher levels. We did test $90.06, as we anticipated yesterday, however it seems that we are rejecting this level. We are meeting strong resistance here confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. If we reject the $90's, we could head straight back to support at $85.55. If that does not hold,...

quantguy

Stocks have steadily drifted down from highs at 4327. Retail sales data on Wednesday confirmed the impact that high inflation is having on the economy, and investors are fearing another 75bps rate hike in September. We are seeing a lot of resistance at current levels confirmed by red triangles on the KRI. However, we are also seeing support at 4245, at least...

quantguy

Gold is on a steady bear trend, after rejecting the 1800's. We have smashed through multiple support levels in the upper 1700's, in particular from 1780, the 50% Fibonacci level. Currently, we are hovering in the 1760's, just a few ticks above 1758, the 0.382 Fibonacci level. This will provide support if gold slips further. The Kovach OBV is on a steady...

quantguy

Litecoin has slipped from highs around $64. We made another attempt to break through $64.37, but failed swiftly at this level exactly. Upon retracement, we broke through $61.75, but found support at $60. If we pivot here, then $51.75 and $64.37 will continue to provide resistance and should be considered prohibitive barriers for now. we should continue to find...

quantguy

Ethereum has retraced through multiple levels in the $1800's to the base of support at $1827. We are on the precipice of the vacuum zone down to $1748. We have a cluster of levels in the $1700's to provide support, with an anticipated floor price of $1653. If we pivot, we will have to regain significant ground before testing the $2K's again.

quantguy

Bitcoin has broken down through support at $23.9K. We have been teasing this level for a while now, and finally broke through. We anticipated lower prices, as several attempts at higher prices, including $25.1K have failed swiftly. We are currently in the vacuum zone above $22.4K. The Kovach OBV has slumped, indicating that momentum has petered out for now. ...

quantguy

Oil seems to have bottomed out at $85.55. We saw good support from green triangles on the KRI, and a subsequent pivot back to the high $80's. We are now just below $90, with $90.06 in particular being the level to break before attaining higher levels. We should see significant resistance there. The Kovach OBV is bearish and keeps pressing lower. If we fail to...

quantguy

Stocks have slipped a bit from their week-long rally. Retail sales data confirmed the impact inflation is having on consumers, justifying the current Fed interest rate trajectory. The probability of another 75bps rate hike is above 50%. A retracement from highs was due, as higher highs were increasingly more labored. We gave up the 4300's, after making it as...

quantguy Updated 

Stocks have pushed higher, spiking up to our level at 4327. However, we have retraced back to the high 4200 handle. The rally appears to be growing weaker. We have some risk off news including Tencent, the Chinese tech firm reporting negative revenue for the first time in history. We also have retail sales at 8:30AM EST, which another data point the Fed will...

quantguy

Litecoin has rallied, breaking through $61.75, but facing immediate resistance at $64.37. We rejected this level hard, as anticipated in these reports. Currently, we are hovering in the value area between these two levels. We anticipate significant resistance at $64.37, as we have been seeing, and the failed attempts might suggest lower prices. If $61.75 fails...

quantguy

Ethereum has given up the $2K's but stabilized at $1872. We are seeing strong support at this level confirmed by green triangles on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has leveled off, rescinding highs it made in the $2K's a few days ago. We should have continued support from levels in the $1800's, but after that there is a vacuum zone back to the mid $1700's, with $1653 a...

quantguy

Bitcoin is back to support after an attempt at a rally got batted down at $25.1K. We saw another brief attempt that could not even make it past $24.4K before immediately retracing back to support. The level $23.9K appears to be holding, the failed attempts at higher levels could be a bearish sign. The Kovach OBV is roughly level, but does appear to be...

quantguy

The US dollar has stabilized in the range it has established between 106.13 and 107.20. We are sitting in the mid 106's at the time of this writing. The market is likely awaiting retail sales data at 8:30AM EST before making a significant move. If numbers come in soft, then this could dampen the Fed's hawkish stance. We are still anticipating a 50% bps hike in...

quantguy

Litecoin is holding onto the $60's after a hard selloff rejected our level at $64.37. We broke past the next level down at $61.75, but are finding strong support at the base of the $60 handle confirmed by a cluster of green triangles on the KRI. If we are able to pivot from the base of the $60 handle, we could make another run for $61.75, then $64.37, which...