quixilver

quixilver

DXY seems a little expensive vs Oil and Inflation Expectations but not sure the spread is wide enough to justify a trade. Not much this time

quixilver

Sell bonds signal is very extended similar to Operation Twist era. I guess we are waiting for a catalyst to start the spike higher. Bonds are a long term sell here

quixilver

Business cycle still points to more downside for steel prices and treasury yields

quixilver

Copper / gold ratio is in line with 10 year Treasury yields at the moment. So no actionable signal right now

quixilver

No major change since June. Still, either EM is very cheap vs DM or Gold is very expensive. This should correct in coming weeks

quixilver

Short XLU if weekly RSI > 70 and after a red weekly candle. Next week could be it

quixilver Updated 

Business cycle is still going down (as indicated by falling steel prices) and defensive sectors are supposed to outperform SPY in this environment. Lately XLU is underperforming SPY significantly, which happened twice in last several years. In 2015 it foretold a big market crash. In early 2019, while the divergence was relatively small, it predicted the May...

quixilver

Inflation expectations and Oil are rising once again but DXY is not following and seems stronger than this relationship implies

quixilver

Very high correlation btw relative value of EM vs DM stocks and Gold price At the moment, either EM is very cheap vs DM or Gold is very expensive. This should correct in coming weeks Idea stolen from TickByTick_Team on Twitter. Sorry not allowed to paste links here

quixilver

Copper / gold ratio is in line with 10 year Treasury yields at the moment. Last year's big gap has corrected. So no actionable signal right now

quixilver

DE10Y vs BAS.DE : BASF stock price tends to lead German 10 year yields. Currently, BASF signals a rate spike is in the cards followed by another low in DE10Y

quixilver

Defensives XLP, XLU, and IYR should continue to outperform

quixilver

Business cycle also implies more downside for EEM and likely for DAX and SPX.

quixilver

Business cycle still points to more downside in steel prices and treasury rates. Recent declines are too fast and such fast declines are usually followed by some bounce/consolidation before more downside.

quixilver

Inflation expectations and oil prices declined significantly. DXY was showing the path as predicted. There is no clear signal from this relationship now

quixilver Updated 

DXY and inflation expectations are diverging once again, just like early 2017 and mid-2018. Divergence is not extreme yet but I fear we might be walking into another trap. DXY is once again showing the path imho, so oil and inflation expectations are once to high and should come down unless dollar reverses quickly.

quixilver

Everytime TLT weekly RSI14 hits overbought, TLT rally comes to a halt or reverses. We are very close to the top of this rally. Look for short opportunity in short term

quixilver

Relative performance of defensive sectors XLP, XLU and IYR vs SPY. XLV performance did not follow a cyclical pattern Best fit suggests outperformance of XLP vs SPY in coming months