redwingcoach

redwingcoach

There is a lot NOT to like about this trade. Yes, I see how far it has run. Yes, I see how fast it is falling. Yes, I see the gap from 96 to 102 that “must” be filled. Yes, the market overall has been unhelpful of late. I realize all of it and I wouldn’t necessarily recommend anyone follow me on this trade because of all of that. Here’s my “bull” case, such...

redwingcoach Updated 

ABT got some bad news today when a Missouri judge ruled there would be a retrlal regarding a court case involving ABT's baby formula, and the stock, which was already down 3 days in a row, got thumped. While I don't dismiss long term risk from that news, I'm not in this for the long haul. I will likely be long gone before anything happens with that retrial....

redwingcoach Updated 

As some of you may remember from back in early December, this is not my first idea for $FI. At the time, I hyped it up as a top performer for me, only to make a measly 0.27% on the trade in one day (which is still about 6x the avg daily return of the market). I was disappointed in the return, but VERY happy the next day when the CEO left and it dropped 6%...

redwingcoach Updated 

I trade almost exclusively long, and like everyone else who does, it’s harder to make a buck in this kind of environment. Swimming against the current is generally for salmon, not traders. But when you don’t have that choice, learning how to adjust your approach can make you a more profitable trader. Apologies for the baseball analogy here, but it’s like...

redwingcoach

It's been a while since I posted an idea and to those who follow me I am sorry/not sorry. I didn't post for a few reasons: 1) I know that there are people who trade my ideas despite my warnings/disclaimers and I didn't like how the market was acting for the last couple of weeks (rightly, as it turns out) and I didn't want anyone else to get caught up in this...

redwingcoach

Reddit is a little bit dangerous here. It is a very expensive stock with a short trading record that has run up massively of late. But it has pulled back, and is still within the confines of its regression channel. Ordinarily I don't trade stocks without large piles of trading data to fall back on. So why this time? First of all, the reason I don't is...

redwingcoach Updated 

FDS has disappointed the buy and hold crowd over the past year. In the last 356 days (it was a leap year), it has gone up a total of around .22% - basically nothing. It has given me a bunch of profitable trades, though, and it's giving me another one today. While it has done basically nothing overall, all those zig-zags along the way are where my excess return...

redwingcoach Updated 

The chart is a mess. There's really no support close by after the big post earnings pop. 5 red candles in 6 days. Trump tariffs taking effect this weekend...nobody in their right mind should take this trade. So why did I? A) I literally have only JNPR in my portfolio when it comes to tech, so I am underrepresented in the space. B) anyone who follows me...

redwingcoach

People get panicky during corrections. Understandably, it can be nerve-wracking watching that stock you were sure was going up, going down. With the short term nature of the trading I'm doing, I don't worry that much, and especially when the corrections are garden variety ones. ROST is down almost 10% since Dec 5th. That's a normal correction, especially for...

redwingcoach Updated 

I just posted an idea about TSCO 4 days ago, and nothing has changed (except that I have 1 more profitable trade in it than I did 4 days ago), so forgive me for not going into micro detail about this one. I also posted another Idea about NYSE:J a few minutes ago that shares many features with this idea. This stock is down almost 12% since mid-October. But in...

redwingcoach

I chose J as my public idea for the day for a lot of reasons -it’s my best idea of the day (it’s #11 on my composite score list) -covering a span of over 1800 trades (real and backtested), it has an AVERAGE gain of 2.9%. -the 1 “losing” trade in all 1800+ was a signal from yesterday which I will boldly predict will become profitable too. -it has a per day held...

redwingcoach Updated 

I get excited every time MSFT shows up on my screener, because it is literally THE #1 stock in my trading universe (over 2000 stocks) in terms of its risk-adjusted per day returns (.23% based on over 1000 real and backtested trades). I mean it's #1 all time and that return is even MJs number. That has to be a sign... Seriously, though, when it produces over...

redwingcoach Updated 

TSCO may not be an obvious choice for the kind of short term trading I do, but that doesn’t stop it from being literally one of the 5 best stocks (historically) for my trading system. In backtests and live trades, it has a record of 892-1. The average gain on those trades was +2.6% in an average of 11 trading days for an average daily return of almost 6x that of...

redwingcoach Updated 

Not many charts that look like this out there these days that are far enough away from earnings to keep me from breaking out in hives. This one is a little dangerous, given the lack of nearby support after that upward burst, so I'll be holding my breath just a bit. I do think the long term uptrend continues, though. I don't see Trump cutting the defense budget...

redwingcoach Updated 

I missed this one at the close yesterday and tried to get in after hours at 24.65 but failed. Lucky me- I got in this morning at 24.50 instead. After selling NYSE:NU yesterday I am underrepresented in financials, so I'm in here. Not the prettiest chart, but it's paying me an almost 4% dividend if I have to wait. I don't expect to have to wait long enough...

redwingcoach Updated 

I realize that this one may be too late, but I went long NASDAQ:BITF at the close today. I can't resist a sale on miners, and while Bitcoin was down hard today, it was in sympathy with the market and not because of Bitcoin "fundamentals", such as they are (or aren't. With BITSTAMP:BTCUSD down less than 2% and this one down 14%, and all the HODLrs are whining...

redwingcoach Updated 

This one has been a little temperamental lately, and can take some time for the trade to work out when it is, but ultimately still has a perfect record (79-0) of coming through after a buy signal since it went public near the beginning of 2022. It has also been in an almost 2 year long uptrend and trading strong stocks improves my odds dramatically. However, I'm...

redwingcoach Updated 

This one may not be the 1 day reversal win I always hope for, but I think this is a very overdone selloff. It may continue for a day or two, but it could also rebound 5 or 6% tomorrow, so count me in. I am prepared to weather the storm however, as surely analysts will look to vocally cover their ass3s now that Wall Street's darling has become the Flavor of the...