redwingcoach

redwingcoach Updated 

SNAP is overbought. It has run up almost 25% in two weeks and is right at resistance. Either it will fail soon or break out. I'm betting on a fail. Just went long the Oct 11 10.50 put for .34 - wish me luck. Either the trade goes my way quickly or against me hard, I suspect. Odds obviously favor with me based on past stats. I'll post those when I get a...

redwingcoach Updated 

Someone once told me never to short a stock on a bull run. My algo at that time said the stock was historically overbought, so of course I listened to the algo. I made 42% the next day. I can't say who was right or who was wrong generally, but I usually listen to the algo and I'm doing it again. My algo tells me CSCO has been overbought for 6 days (including...

redwingcoach Updated 

Thesis: AMZN is oversold according to my algo. The end. OK just for everyone else who doesn't know that all my trades are run by my algo, I'll spice it up a little with this chart and some fundamental news just for that crowd. The blue line shows very strong long term support going back to late 2022 - tested and held 3x. The white line is short term support...

redwingcoach Updated 

It's been a minute, but with the big sell-off I didn't want to spread my capital too thin, and then with the sharp rise subsequently it's hard to find a decent stock that isn't overbought now. Plus with energy not being as correlated to everything else I'm holding, it helps diversify. Will continue to add lots as long as it is oversold and sell each when it...

redwingcoach Updated 

Another unlikely hero, NYSE:O has become oversold for me 13 times in the last year (since the end of last fall's mini-crash). It has only stayed oversold more than 2 days twice in that time. Additionally, over 80% of the lots that would have been purchased in that time would have been profitable trades within 1 trading week and the most common length of time...

redwingcoach Updated 

CIFR is borderline oversold. It was when I started placing the trade and it rose to just above it now. This trade is designed as a 2 day trade, but if it doesn't work out, it'll be oversold anyway so I'm fine. I bought the stock at 2.99 and wrote a 9/20 $3 call and got paid .10 ($10) for it. My plan is that I lock in a 3.3% gain in 2 days assuming the stock...

redwingcoach Updated 

Not surprising that they are oversold together. There's lots of ways to play this. I already have exposure to the miners in IREN so I'm not gonna add to that - I've got a full plate of tickers I'm waiting to be overbought. Could've sold 2 early in the day today, but I wait until the close to make buy/sell calls. Anyway, the miners will be under pressure as...

redwingcoach Updated 

I've said before that trading with the trend is always something that improves your odds, both long and short. I don't ALWAYS trade with the trend but I like to, especially when there's other compelling reasons to. Putting the odds in your favor is always a smart move when trading. On this chart I'm using 2 things to illustrate trend. The GC overlay is simply...

redwingcoach Updated 

HON happens to be oversold. But I didn't choose it for that reason. I chose it mostly to teach a couple of lessons about trading. I won't probably be updating this idea daily though, because I'm not trading it and I have too many other things to keep track of already. I will try to check in on it once a week or so. So why did I choose HON? If you asked 100...

redwingcoach Updated 

Used Oct 4 exp 7.50 puts as a short play on HLF. I went short on SNAP today (and wished I hadn't) because it was my 2nd choice and I couldn't get a fill on these all day long at .25. Finally at the close I bumped up my bid and got them for .30. I like this better than the SNAP trade because HLF has been going down since mid-2021. It's near its 3 year low,...

redwingcoach Updated 

Went long STGW at 7.02 at the open this morning. Nice, pretty zigzag sideways trend has produced 55 buy signals since the beginning of 2023 and all have been profitable. 44 of 55 (81.8%) have been profitable in 10 days or less, most in 3 days or less. The short term trend over the last 10 months is up, giving a little more love to this signal. I'll add if it...

redwingcoach Updated 

So I'm not one to short. For a lot of reasons. I HATE margin. It's like a credit card where the things you bought can go up in price after you buy them, you're charged interest on them immediately, and the "credit card" company can require you to pay your bill early. As someone who has never in my life carried a balance on a credit card except accidentally,...

redwingcoach Updated 

I'm not as bullish here as I was with NVDA, but as long as they can sell phones for as much as they do, to as many people as they do, count me in. It doesn't hurt that my system is 32-1 on AAPL (not including today's signal) in the last 12 months (the 1 "loss" is the signal from 9/4). Those who follow me know those aren't atypical results, so I'm confident the...

redwingcoach Updated 

Oversold and 5 down days but still in a longer term uptrend. I have a full plate so I'm not trading it but I would if I didn't. There's also some support right here as well (Apr/May consolidation and Dec '23 high).

redwingcoach

I'll post details later but system is 23-1* in the last 12 months on this ticker. Not huge gains, but if the Fed cut is bigger than expected, its 8% dividend is a safe haven. Nice uptrend too.

redwingcoach Updated 

This one is one I'm excited about after crunching the numbers. I haven't traded it before but it has produced some eye watering paper numbers in backtesting. Usual setup - oversold and keep adding until it isn't. Sell each lot as it becomes both overbought and profitable. Here are the numbers from the last year: 28-3* (the 3 are from the last 3 trading days...

redwingcoach Updated 

Look I know it's an obvious trade, and a potentially early one...but c'mon. Long term, can I find anyone who will bet against tech? Any number of individual QQQ components are oversold today, so you could take your pick of them, too. GOOG, MSFT, NVDA, AMZN, etc. and maybe do better trading them. But diversificiation mitigates individual stock risk factors. I...

redwingcoach Updated 

Full disclosure, I'm not taking this trade. Don't get me wrong, I LOVE it. NVDA has a great reecent track record when short-term oversold as the arrows indicate. I just have my max # of positions and I won't overextend even for NVDA. I don't imagine this pullback is done. But there has been no such thing as as a bad time to buy NVDA in the last several years,...