redwingcoach

redwingcoach Updated 

I love this one so I reached just a little at the strong open this morning. Oversold in a VERY strong 9 month uptrend. If you follow me you know the drill: Oversold, keep buying 1 lot as long as it stays oversold and sell each lot as it becomes both overbought AND profitable. Indicator and strategy paired with CAVA are 23-4* in the last 12 months (the 4 "losses"...

redwingcoach Updated 

Standard oversold trade - buy lots as long as it remains oversold and sell each lot as it becomes overbought AND profitable. Low price stocks like this are ideal for this type of trade because they tend to move more on a % basis than higher priced stocks. I'll post mmore data later but the chart tells you it's gonna be pretty good. Will update as I add or close...

redwingcoach

CAN is a stock I've been trading frequently lately. See the chart above for its entire trading history. It opened its first day of trading at 12.60 and closed yesterday at 1.21 - a 90% loss since day 1. This has clearly been a wealth destroyer and a stock most people would say to run from as fast as you can - and they wouldn't be wrong. Trading up trending...

redwingcoach Updated 

IQ has been oversold for 3 days now. I haven't pulled the trigger because I felt like it might fall farther and there are other opportunities in other stocks coming. I'm still not 100% convinced it's done falling, but there's a way to play this that I might use. Selling cash-secured puts. This works especially well on low priced stocks for most people because of...

redwingcoach Updated 

F hasn't been this overbought since 2017. It's run up 23% in the last month and is up 13 of the last 15 trading days. A 20% drop over the next couple of months would be my most likely scenario. Stocks can always go higher, especially with a good earnings report, which F has coming up in a week. But if they miss or disappoint in any way, I'd expect a...

redwingcoach Updated 

Got in mid-day as it pulled back from the open to Friday's closing price. Indicator and strategy are 17-0 in the last 12 months on this one. While the stock was down about 18% over the last 12 months, here are the stats on this strategy in that time frame: 17-0 Average trade: +4.9% (median is the same) Avg. holding period per lot: 11.8 days Avg. %return/lot/day...

redwingcoach Updated 

Full disclosure: I'm not making this trade. That said, here's my case for it and what I'd do if I did. META almost never stays oversold more than a day or two. In fact, if I couldn't get a sub-499 fill I would def not chase it because likely I already missed the move for this kind of quick trade. Best hope would be a general market malaise Monday to get in at...

redwingcoach Updated 

I didn't do this trade yet and I may or may not. Its track record is good, just the returns are more modest than I'd like so if I can find something juicer but comparably high probability of success, I will do that instead. Also, high priced stocks make it harder to keep the position manageable as a % of trading capital. More on that later. However, the...

redwingcoach Updated 

Will hold until profitable and overbought. My indicator and exit strategy are 26-0 on VIOT in the last 12 months (though this is the first time I've actually traded it). I generally don't trade <$1 stocks bc they're a hassle to trade bc my broker won't do market orders on stocks <$1, but I made an exception this time and got a limit order filled after hours at...

redwingcoach Updated 

I'm not a fan of trading this close to earnings reports, so I'm not jumping on this one. Too much negative volatility is possible and when you build positions the way I do as the price drops, a negative earnings report can wipe out months of profits instantly. That said, the indicator is undefeated in spite of previous earnings reports over the last 12 months so...

redwingcoach Updated 

This one can be a real roller coaster. My first trade in the last 12 months is still being held and down 48% and I have 7 open lots that are all down at least 28%. However, I have also closed 3 trades in PCT in that time that gained between 48% and 51% and 5 total closed trades over 40% in the last 12 months. In all, 26 of the 33 trades so far were...

redwingcoach Updated 

Again, I'm not one to short stocks, but if I was, I would if I could do it at this level (between 3.97 and 4.01). It's both overbought at 3.97 and RIGHT up against down trend resistance, plus it's been up 6 of the last 7 days. I think it's due for a breather and the technicals and candles say here is a nice spot to do it. With this (hypothetical) short,...

redwingcoach Updated 

Same idea as my last post regarding NIO. Short term momentum change trade. No adding to the position. Close when the day's closing price is profitable or the momentum swings negative. Last 12 months with this on BB: 9-1 Avg. gain = +2.2% Median = 2.1% Avg trade length = 1.5 days (8 were 1 day trades) The one losing trade was -5.8% and was a 3 day trade...

redwingcoach

OK I don't short stocks EVER, and the volatility premium on JMIA is stupidly expensive right now so as much as I want to, I'm not buying a put at these prices, but JMIA is acting ridiculously. So let's pretend I shorted it at 13.00 and I'm thinking this is a hopefully 1 day trade, but whenever the next down day is I cover the "short" win or lose. This is for...

redwingcoach Updated 

Bought at the close. Same concept as my other trades but using a 3x leveraged ETF to trade an oversold bond market. Will hold until overbought and profitable and will add to the position as long as it is oversold. Will add details on the track record for this security later.

redwingcoach Updated 

This is a very short term momentum change trade - not my normal overbought situation. I'm hoping to be out of the trade at the end of the day if the stock is up from my entry price. Will NOT add more lots if the price falls. The idea is to buy on the momentum change and hold until profitable or the momentum swings back to negative (latter scenario = loss). ...

redwingcoach Updated 

Oversold in a strong recent uptrend. Will hold each lot until it is both overbought AND profitable. No stops for me. Had a dizzying 40% drawdown back in September '23 and held 14 lots at the bottom of that. In the end, though, all 14 (and the next 13) turned a profit. The indicator and exit strategy combo is 27-0 (with two recently opened positions) in the...

redwingcoach Updated 

JMIA oversold. Holding until overbought and profitable.