Keeping an ear to the ground for contagion as we enter into buyers territory. Expect FTX noise to reach extreme levels. They are getting exactly what they were due in my books, you can keep it going as long as you have confidence and liquidity available. They were not trying to build the decentralised world - they were trying to get rich, and then when not...
Heads up.... a breakout on the log chart is a game changer for BTC bulls. FED hiking cycle reaching the final chapters and pulling a handbrake on USD. We are entering into the 5th (impulsive) wave now. Keep an eye on $25,000 in BTC this week. We could see a leg to $46,000 as early as this Quarter. Stay long. Outguess the break.
📌 @ridethepig G10 FX Market Commentary - JPY for the Yearly Close Of course, the breakout here can be bought after so much consolidation but it takes time. Buyers have no worries, since with a solid centre a loose Japanese fiscal and monetary policy is easy enough to map. Even more than that Kuroda and Suga are well seasoned, the logical link here is for USDJPY...
The chart below shows when we started to switch sides in yen at 149.3x on October 18th. Three days later, we had FED 'slip of the tongue' admitting being passed the mid-point in rate cycle, and finally the dollar began to cool. BOJ have no option but to move rates higher. The clock is ticking for a move under $125, unlocking $110 and $100 with the full swing. ...
After an important Jackson, Powell consistent attempt at persuading (or forcing) equities higher is coming to an end and it is time for a round of chart updates across the board. This sort of tendency, which toys with the idea of tapering and rolling up purchases should be seen as such; USD shorts are increasingly less appropriate; but here the dominating factor...
By now you all know the drill. Let's start with an initial framework, assess the current environment, and evaluate all below questions. are we trending or ranging? - a series of higher highs, higher lows - sellers structure is broken, we are tracking whether buyers will protect or find it difficult to hold discount? - we are tracking the lows...
The threat on the long term chart is unpleasant for GBP, 1.15xx and 1.05xx have been set up. Just at the right moment, because BOE cannot now recapture the short-end of the rate curve with inflation still to reach his goal. To open things up, a simple test below 1.175x is all that is needed with Jackson to unlock the flow; a textbook swing ever since we saw...
📌 @ridethepig GBP FX Commentary for the Yearly Close Here I will start by presenting the following two diagrams: The safety of the Pound turns out to be rather deceptive with a Johnson cabinet which is becoming increasingly weak. And once more, surprise surprise the reason no-deal brexit is being blocked after Biden blockades is a sufficient...
What I am seeing is a lot of questions around the hanging and shallow nature of the pullback of 'iv' in this 'C' leg. We will also cover some of the Fed talk, which is getting somewhat over-cooked. In my opinion, the issue with the pullback in 'iv' is one of the classical issues with momentum and impulsive plays. We are here talking about the same leg from 100,...
Time to start dusting down our BTC charts... It's been a few since we've looked at this in great detail, time to dig deeper and pick out some key areas to start monitoring for doing business in From a waves perspective, despite the retrace, Buyers are in full control with $218,000 now the next target in the crosshairs. XBTUSD directional bias also has...
Another typical procedure can be seen here, the combined advance by buyers cannot be prevented in the long run. This advanced would (and now we are seeing....) lay bare the base on the strong support at 18.9x. Much worse for Sellers, the attack on the highs involves 22.9/23.0 as a main target. For the strategy, the correct plan now consists of holding and adding...
The dynamic strength of the greenback This strength lies in the lust to expand from the base (= the tendency towards 103xx-104xx) and further in the circumstances where technical breaks occurred or are made possible. Seller's outpost at December 2016 highs is falling apart from the Fed superiority. Buyer's are now showing that momentum can be keenly exercised in...
📌 @ridethepig ZW1! Market Commentary 17.12.2020 For buyers the breakout creates the typical starting point, one we have seen many many times before. The fact it is happening on the monthly chart is very telling, this is threatening to impulsive explode to the topside via shortages on the supply side from lockdowns and contractions in globalisation. Whatever...
The playbook for manoeuvring - actively adding longs We can start with a quick review of the general plan for the operation I shall be discussing. I imagine all sitting in longs from earlier in the year are ready to exploit greater freedom of movement which we we will posses a tick above August highs. So to seize the point, our attack is a momentum move, like a...
📌 @ridethepig AU02Y Market Commentary 18.12.2020 This position which arises after the telegraphed breakout from the 10Y and thus creates space for the front end. A typical manoeuvre for the AU and NZ yields: The analysis of the starting position shows us that the control now exists on the bid; because we know that it is the path of least resistance, so the...
Dear reader How nice to see you again. I have been busy with public and private clients since 2020, and although I continue to take a keen interest in markets and etc, I no longer have much time other than the (very) occasional consultancy for detailed writings. I am looking for a solution as even the weekends cannot tempt me back into regular updates! There...
(an affinity between 'C' legs and 'impulsive' swings.... patience pays) 1. Counter the false conception that every single break lower has to produce an immediate effect; waiting plays and methodical moves are totally justified. 2. Recognise the idea of prevention in this breakdown as being a key reversal in play! With this in mind, the struggle for...
Sellers have given up the pivot, and after clearing FED, buyers are eyeballing pressure towards $46, $49 and $58 above. A more solid representation is our long-term chart in BTC, but GBTC is also playable. With sellers showing a lack of necessary tenacity, and buyers starting to make themselves felt. The threat now is immediately on a +35% rally, to e.g $46...
