This linkage with Oil is a well known school, which believed only in absolute freeing moves can be a forced to be reckoned with. In 90 cases out of 100 I consider it worth recommending. Even after the defensive breakdown in Oil with Covid chapter I, it should in no way b overestimated that we are suddenly reaching the previous breakdown manoeuvre. ...
📍 My dear readers, it is clear what we are trying to achieve here.... a protection of the highs / resistance with initial targets at our centre / pivot and extension targets below at support. The control which belongs to buyers is blockaded and open to attack. It is expensive to maintain the highs; this means that the necessary pullback when energy exhausts is...
📍 A few more words about the possible creation of a waterfall in global equities. There is a strategically interesting example of the exploitation of ECB and FED. The board is hanging by a thread, here German Equities are remarkably similar to that of someone who is having difficult paying their debts while having to bend the knee and convince the masses to be...
Here we are more or less back to square one as to where we were in July and testing away at the resistance. Buyers are showing a lack of tenacity! If after the Brexit fact (does not really matter if its a deal or hard brexit deal) we can see the possible outflow pressure really start to make itself felt. The strong counter here should immediately come under...
📌 ridethepig | CAC Market Commentary 2020.11.25 The stem for the ending of a retrace and intentions of a turn... Breaking down ahead of US elections was strategically important. This was not a typical personality vote, the motives of Democrats are rather exclusively known and transferring the power here will indeed be revolutionary. Neither side can...
Lets start by measuring the enthusiasm, the radius of the attack by looking at the previous diagram and understand why $21,000 is key for unlocking the next chapter: All is clear...Buyers have the control, there is very little to prevent the test of fresh all time highs, meaning we need to keep an eye on the impulsive extension target at $34,820; this...
📍 The theme we have set ourselves here for an expansion in Vol into next week, would usually provide enough material for an entire website, but lack of space compels me to moderate this into a short and snappy post. I shall only point out the most important notions and events from 2019 and save a deeper examination for later. The most...
📍 The "revisit of support" - a misconception concerning the retrace When in the wide disputed range between 65 highs and -40 lows (insane), we are in a length process of refilling the ladder. The view appears to me to be based on an incomplete recession and misunderstood conception of the demand side. I shall try: 1️⃣ to point out that this in fact a...
📌 Gold Market Commentary 2020.11.19 Even the vaccine could not stop the second wave; here the theme appears to put an epic level of pressure on risk, with a whole series of stimulus and apparently senseless prevention moves from government causing bankruptcies and agricultural shortages in all directions. In the flows here we are tracking buyers holding up...
📌 Here we go for the main event... To illustrate the spillover effects between US and the rest of the board, we are going to use AUDJPY. This is absolutely going to be a long night, and of course, I wish it was over with already. Trump should, as has been emphasised several times, come out on top. What would be the significance of this move? Well, it...
An important update after the previous two chapters, which have been well planned we are finally ready to crop our harvest . The threat of such a breakdown, can and will provoke weakening in the support and thus its effect can last right into the elections. 📌 ridethepig | LTC Market Commentary 2020.09.22 📌 ridethepig | LTC Market Commentary 2020.10.22...
📌 EURUSD Market Commentary 2020.10.29 At a time when Lagarde ought to play the “leading” role, something similar to the pacemaker in the Tour de France, and not kick the can with PEPP while reading newspapers about what has happened from her home. I am personally expecting nothingness from the ECB and instead to tee up more QE in December which will be...
📌 So what are we trading here today? Generally speaking, European Equities including CAC are under severe pressure and need a herioc sacrifice from ECB which is just not in play. Additionally we also have a fresh catalyst from the latest Macron stance triggering boycotting and prevention of L'Oreal products in Muslim countries. There is a lack of...
📌 USDCAD A short idea which is essentially intended to cast some more light over the election positioning moves We played a very nice momentum move this morning after breaking through the WEAK Tokyo defence 👇 The process of continuing is automatic for algos, it enables the occupation of 1.35xx as capital ensures ULTIMATE safety in the greenback at a...
📌 Vix - Volatility An expansion of volatility is coming; the attempt to step against the flow of Covid chapter II is reckless to say the least. According to my models, we have unfinished business to be done at 85 once more. I will continue to hold longs and look to add on dips for example towards 25, or enjoy a momentum gambit when we see the breakup. ...
The threat of a pullback has been set up, the unpleasant rally in USD as investors rush to park capital in the greenback. Just at the right moment, because of lockdowns, covid chapter II and things of this nature the highs can be burst open. Although we are in LONG TERM structural decline in the dollar, it does not mean we will not have to rush and take cover...
📍 SPX - into the elections and beyond This waterfall is a demonstration of how and where a decline in confidence on the risk front should be punished. The lust to expand equities higher is rather less here than one might suspect at first look. With the unsurprising hurdle of a contested election in US, buyers are threatened by an obstruction in democracy...
🛒 Consumer staples is dealing with a remarkable situation on the macro front which we have discussed at earlier opportunities (see ALPHA PROTOCOL: SEEKING IMMEDIATE EXTRACTION). One should be wary of the immediate risk for a waterfall as consumer staples hang onto the highs by a fingernail. After completing the 5 wave sequence to the topside, clearly the end...
