📌 This will act as the start of the next 'novel' on dollar: the first of course will serve as our map into the next 13 days. We must review the Medium and Long term charts to understand the art of what we are tracking, and the contact between Dollar and safe-haven flows as we enter into another expansion of volatility. The follow diagram portrays the position...
I should like to start with a reminder of the operational plan for the first Covid chapter. 📌 Covid Chapter I The terrain here was clear. My models were picking up on a sweep of the lows in VIX to clear the path for a +600% expansion. In order for us to manoeuvre around this we must understand how large hands move various assets at quite a precise...
📍 DAX gaining tempo The previous 2020 macro map, outdated as it may be, contains the overarching manoeuvre which we can now describe as a compounding play. It is as follows: my models started to pick up on the alarm bells towards the back-end of last year, and hinted of DAX making revisiting 10,000. The compounding is going to be of great importance, when we...
📝 EURGBP While the single currency block continues to work together on Covid the UK is as divided as ever, from Scottish independence to the North / South divide. Faster Macro data has started to tick back down in Europe and the UK. We are going to see a decline in activity once more into November and with Brexit still to come this will hurt the UK more in...
📍 I am trying something out here with some faster flow charts. This is of similar nature to the preparations and strategy notes we made in EURUSD: In order to liberate the highs in USDCAD, buyers must take out the Tokyo defence. They are hoping to prevent the breakup for as long as possible, the annoying notion for sellers is Canada cases accelerating quickly...
🔸 USDJPY - into the elections Sellers have the move and already played the exchange towards 100 on the initial covid chapter I. They are aiming for the ideal Yearly closing position (the frontal attack against any laggards). I managed to carry out the deeply laid plan (a serious contender for chart of the year) at the beginning and by not being as familiar...
📍 LTC Market Commentary 2020.10.22 A good time to update the chart here, after exactly a month we managed to complete the retrace from +/- 42 to +/- 53 without much stress. For those tracking this leg higher, a quick recap of the previous swing: So what are we trading here? In the immediate term, we have US election risk and covid escalating out of...
⚠️ Chapter IV: Vix and microstructure ⚠️ For those following the swings in Vix since 2019 you will know we are tracking for the overprotection from sellers and how to try to get rid of the 'all is back to normal' sentiment. This is a shorter update than the previous three chapters, intentionally aimed at casting some light on how sellers are overshooting...
This diagram consists of my conception of the election positional play and continues into my treatment of the end-game in an economic cycle. 1️⃣ The reciprocal relationship between risk tolerance on the one hand and a contested election on the other. As we will soon notice, my dear followers, my conception of the next few weeks and months is largely based on...
📌 EURUSD Market Commentary 2020.10.22 A possible reversal between sellers and buyers taking profits After Eurobonds Positional Play , buyers might consider the exchanging manoeuvre from 1.20xx a good level to take profits since these levels are dangerous waters for those wanting to add longs. However, the recapture of 1.18xx is apparent, and noteworthy of how...
📌 STOXX 50 The purpose of the operation here is a clean and simple 5-3-5 sequence to the downside which means the lows are still exposed to another flank attack from those accompanying bears. This is a very important few weeks and months for volatility and in a roundabout way we must take full advantage of this while it takes place. I don't consider the...
📌 Oil - Election Positioning Map @ridethepig Here we are approaching the strong 41.5x resistance, the same levels we have been tracking since calling an end to the v shapers rebound. OPEC now has the difficult task of provoking price into action, any manoeuvres on the supply side will not be able to offset the demand shock from further restrictions and...
There are seven ways to improve the art of speculation. Latest cheatsheet: 1. 🔎 Find your price driver - build a macro argument based on probabilities How good is the quality of the price driver? If I look at the BOE and ECB, how wide is the divergence? We are looking for chalk and cheese, opposites attract. 2. 🖐 Execution is important - most get stopped...
📌 An update to the map for French Equities By now we should have all positioned our portfolios defensively and be sure that in doing so by covering we are ensuring that our opponent will not try a steam roller! Think back to the diagram and follow the flows.... We have a typical position here in which French Equities can be sold actively. Thanks to the...
📌 What have we got in play here? On the news flow Paypal does matter but it was expected and is done at the right time if you ask me. I mean the retrace here will be healthy, to trap the late buyers who are unaware thinking its non-stop-moon while also opening an attack on the previous breakout traders at $11,500. A positional play. Sellers can now work...
🔸 AUDUSD - Market Commentary 2020.10.21 The following play is aiming for a test of 70c; after a very dovish RBA earlier in the week opening the window for negative rates, we have some more downside to play. Wellll done all those selling AUDCAD , AUDUSD and AUDCNH . Volatility is going to continue to expand as we enter into the elections which will weigh...
📍 USDCNH into the elections Oct 2020 Markets are moving quickly. Sellers completed the third wave target at 6.629x as widely expected. The pullback we are tracking in wave 4 is now brilliant proof of a lust to expand even further down. In the 2020 macro chart, we are ahead of schedule and a healthy pullback into the elections, followed by an exchange...
📌 Bitcoin - October 2020 Well done those still holding longs in what has been a rather slow but simple grind higher. Buyers could have developed quicker according to the flow models but we maintained flexibility. Next comes the wave 3 target at $12,364. And buyers are not particularly favourable to break through without a retrace. The correct course is to...
