♟ Another clear map for us to play with Brexit and the U.S. elections acting as the main price drivers. A double top is a purely tactical weapon. It is terrible compelling; even for the most unaware retailers who will jump in - so we are tracking for flows driven to the lows after a double top. We shall close this Brexit chapter with some strong short GBP...
Comparing NZ 10Y Yield with AU 10Y Yield we can see the divergence opening up. The local stories in NZ are looking a lot worse than in Australia for now, depriving the NZ 10Y Yield of completing the base formation. On the currency side, the strategic link between AUD and NZD is being threatened by AUD breaking up and flirting to complete the leg towards 1.12...
📌 A timely update to the S&P weekly chart, where we can see clearly sellers are provoking the breakdown into some sort of waterfall. All Global Equity charts look very similar with the traditional struggle between the defending fast money crowd and the more MT and LT sharks who are aware that the momentum is stalling and are itching to load at cheaper levels. ...
📌 Surrendering of the AUD bid The following play is an example of how easily a premature surrender of the ladder can lead to a correction. In light of that, for the news flow we have a two course dinner: 1️⃣ A dovish RBA on deck notably showing signs of distress with Australian 10Y Yield and opening the door for more QE. This is going to keep the downward...
📅 October 18th EURUSD - Election Map Eurobonds positional play The manoeuvre chosen by Europe to consolidate the debt cannot be criticised. It was inevitable since the Maastricht Treaty that in order to keep the currency alive they would eventually need to obtain with it 'federalised debt' in order to compete in the Premier league with US and China....
📅 October 18th 2020 Gold into the elections... XAUUSD (spot) So we may say 'as expected' ... on the waterfall from $1,970 and a clear reversal with little drawdown or need to panic. The notes to this game with Gold, from which we clearly have been exploiting a lot of value as there are other examples of the moves in this exchange.. Silver ...
📍 USDCNH An interesting few days for those in Chinese rates, a 100bp move in the front end, what an express train move!! Never seen anything like this before and shows the power from vol in repo fixing. PBOC will want to keep the pressure off equities, as they have been doing for some time now and hence we can see some recycling of those longs come out and make...
Flows are starting to become more mixed as we reach the final few sessions in the Quarter. The structural decline of the dollar remains but we have some room for tactical longs in USDCAD. This is emphasised by the fact that the DXY still has a final manoeuvre to make before we step down one more time: In the short term it is buyers move to make, they have put...
🔸 Ceilings and profit taking I am starting to unwind partials in the USDTRY longs with all of these moves so full of energy in the current chapter it wont be long until the retailers and bloomberg crowd are on board. There is lots of thunder and lightening across the global economy, Turkey will catch more than the sniffles but it is prudent we stick to the plan...
📌 A good time to review and update our main battleground Another moment here which is going to force decision, buyers are needing to complete at a minimum their ABC targets while the extension targets still remain locked. While the other side of the coin comes from those looking to play the long term structural decline in the dollar, and sellers are flirting to...
The gridlock continues with CB's keeping Yields interlocked for as long as possible. An attack on the highs is inevitable if you ask me, sellers base is just not strong enough. 📌 Recession Strategy US will lead for the purpose of these flows, buyers may still make concessions and allow a retest of 0.82% lows but anything else looks very difficult. The...
A nice ST reversal swing setup forming here that will be easy to defend for sellers. Naturally here in the middle of the range is surrounded in chop, but there is still hope. The technical range in USD is clearly defined after the swing down. We have strong resistance at 0.92 which is a cheap sell on rallies, with 0.90 acting as soft support and another test...
It is a well known phenomenon that the darling of 2020 has been the Yuan. An important difference operationally for China has allowed the sharp speculators to ride the flows in the endgame of an economic cycle. We must first take a look at the outpost we spotted earlier in the year, the start of sellers activity. There are signs of some short-term dollar strength...
📌 The strength of the downtrend is founded in the fact that this is moving as collateral with the end of cycle flows. In this position Litecoin is the 'lone tree' blowing in whichever direction the wind is facing. After a mutual exchange of the passed resistance in Bitcoin, soft sellers are out of the game, whilst buyers are already well developed with...
📍 Major Updates on Dow, Nasdaq and S&P coming this week. Equity buyers are not happy, the loss of the technical structure seeks compensation and yet in similar risky fashion the Portnoy crowd continue to buy the dip at over extended levels. The one missing aspect to their account, inflation, it will land a devastating blow to the real economy and eventually,...
📌 General remarks After we completed the breakdown as expected, we have a valid swing down for sellers. Today flows look set for a small pullback before continuation of the decline into 26,376 and 25,139 as the main targets below. This is a leg of two halves, we have a zig and a zag. We are trading the pullback in the Zig before we function the continuation of...
📌 Surrendering the support It would be unpleasant to protect the shiny metal here with sellers mobile and threatening the waterfall. Well done those who are riding the move down since Fed, a simple concept of a journey back towards support. By completing the breakdown sellers are unlocking $1,803 as an initial target area with a daily closing below $1,910....
Plenty of exciting opps in the Crypto markets as we dip back into oversold areas drawing an interesting amount of clients to start building full sized positions which likely reflects the underlying view that Cryptos are here for the long haul. 📌 I am looking for this completion leg in BTC to a minimum of $12,000 which will clearly help moving ETH as...
