It ought to be known by everyone that it is necessary in certain recessions for dead cat bounces and over a typical 5 quarter economic cycle down, it is not uncommon for 1 or 2 of those quarters to be bullish. I suspect that the strength around all the discounted earnings from August is mostly baked in now. The concern, in the MT and LT, is the 2's 5's...
The economic landscape and political development 📌 What the less advanced participants must know about the Brexit saga and economic development First a few reminders. We call the resistance area drawn across the first chart our ' Loading Zone ', and here the word 'loading' is used in a trading sense and not its progressive sense. The 1.23xx and...
📌 The struggle to claim 14,631 is notable. When studying the waves I came across similar a similar state of affairs in the earlier flows. The impulsive rally derives from its strong nature, not from itself but from much more the strategic concept of portfolio defence. A defensive move which is clearly crowded and starting to become a deer in the headlights could...
📌 The Nikkei would have freed some space to the downside with a technical break last week, but given that we have not pierced the support line and buyers are still well-placed we must be wary of a retest in the highs of the multi year top at 24,000 - the same level we have been tracking since 2018!! The more interesting notion comes from the Global Equity...
The entire crypto board has been well supported purely from an excess liquidity perspective and the value trap in the past few quarters, which has set the tone for the MT and LT BTC flows in general. 📍 As I understand it there are a lot of large hands caught short BTC, unless there is a big leg down in equities before ext week then we have room to complete...
A very difficult move and recommend passing up this opportunity unless advanced Fundamental skills with analysing FED. The point of this move is a demonstration of how the Gold advance has been too 'steep' and the late buyers should be punished. Remember the lust to expand came all the way back in October 2018 , when we traded the lows in the move live...
📍 JPY Buyers are threatening to breakout. After 107 comes 110 and then 112.x. But sellers have other trump cards, for example covid. My impression is as follows: as the dollar firms and finds a temporary floor therefore can be considered a bounce into the elections which can be somewhat double-edged. If the preconditions are met, namely if we get a...
📌 A quick update here for those trading the flows in EURGBP (yes a change of scenery from the cable battlefield). To maintain the uptrend buyers must defend on their outpost. Rightly so, this is a tempting support level to buy as buyers have to prevent the elegant threat from sellers to breakdown and reclaim the 0.90xx handle. In spite of Brexit, the...
📍 It is already well known that we 'should have exposure to Gold', the conduct of the flows happened very fast and appears to be quite over stretched in the immediate term. The disproportion I mention is not very well-handled in methods where investors seek to park in cash. The great mobility of Gold is known no more, it's difficult to transport and illiquid in...
The exchanging combination between Euro and British Pound continues: Diagram 1 Here we are dealing with the capture of the lows, when we successfully trapped our opponent at 0.830 live together . All the pound buyers are having to face up to the disappointment that the said Oven ready deal is cheerfully the most damaging attack on the UK economy. ...
The ECB as a weakness Two possibilities exist for the terrain ahead, one for the continuation or one for the breakdown. This very much amusing position from a markets perspective stems from the initial Eurobonds positional play. The position is reached as a touchstone for the fact in the thesis. We have already covered the macro and explained the...
📍 This diagram comes after the conversation with @lu1977hk, and is no more imaginative than the positional flows across the global equity board. In Italian Equities the initial offensive targets for sellers come in at 18,466; 17,643 and 16,819 from a "fibs perspective". The connection of further downside in European and Global Equities is more or less the same...
📌 Another example of the erroneous breakdown, a very similar position to DAX, CAC, FTSEMIB and STOXX. We can see how clearly the virus is leading the equity board, as Spain were the first to enter back into the second wave the prevention of a freeing breakup is being made possible via the important loss of diagonal support. "Sell weakness, and even more when...
This diagram portrays the position from the initial 2020 Macro map which I posted on December 31st 2019. The position arose after I called the end of an economic cycle and positioned with the intention to defend. We overshot the lows and snapped back, it is worth pointing out that sellers have significantly better chances because of the strong resistance. 📌 Dax...
📌 Eurostoxx 50 is in question here and we have a good illustration of the ABC outpost. The main target 3,489 is still open for a test but a breakdown here will seal it for the year. In a nutshell, this is a chart speculating that we are in the very early days of the "C" leg down. It is the same opening move in play for German Equities, DAX: This leg...
📌 A short update on French Equities that are also full of dramatic events. The nature of the down cycle came after the infamous leg we played to the topside and began profit taking. How to spot an early discovery of the flows? The diagram clarifies the relationship between the ending of wave 5 and the beginning of the initial 'A' leg with Covid. This...
📍 S&P This illustrates the total downside unlocked in S&P in the 5-3-5 sequence, but also note how unlike the Down the lows are set to hold. An innovation play. Tech avoids the development of destruction because 2,368 looks pinned and unavoidable for a test. As you can see the small caps => mid caps => large caps as usual in the end game flows. Dow: ...
Buyers of a V shaped recovery constitute a formidable opponent; the purpose of the bounce was not to recover but only to re-balance and rightly so. Of course, retail have another account and while the 11700 highs are holding continue to load thinking everything is roses and business as usual... You see, a sound position has at least 5 waves in the impulse and a...
