📌 The capitulation After PA in December 2018 showed us the basing formation it has been all 'one way trafffic' This may lead you to wonder why it is so important to understand the fundamentals and definition of current capital flows, because it is then possible to build one's whole swing around a macro fundamentally sound trade idea, that underpins the...
Buyers have made the transition towards capitulation. This leaves Turkey with a huge problem, and the process of the cleanse in local banks will continue. CBRT will defend with its 'customary inventiveness' very soon as they keep a stern eye on 7.8xx. It is an unfortunate position that Turkey are in. We have exploited it for some time and as soon as the...
📍 This is another known position. Breakdown in 5 waves by testing 10,236; 9,548 and 8,859 . Double zig zag is purely a tactical weapon. It is terribly compelling; even the most sluggish of buyers will be trapped here - driven to cover after the latest breakdown. We shall open the next chapter in US Equities with four simple charts: Dow: S&P500: ...
A timely update to the cable chart after an annihilation last week... 📍 Taking back control (of support) If we take a closer look at the breakdown we can see that above all it is directed at a lack of confidence in building UK exposure against a no-deal backdrop. What is perhaps even more crucial is the conception of 'track and trace' which is of course...
A timely update to the Russell 2000 after running into sellers at the 1600 resistance which was previously support. Small caps have seen a huge uptick in selling interest and momentum is starting to kick in. Buyers giving up the diagonal support is opening up a world of trouble and asking for sellers to apply more pressure. The V shapers and naysayers that...
📍 What's in play here? This boat is becoming very crowded and the absolute freeing move would be a pullback into support before continuation to the topside in 2021. I have dropped my target to 18.5x, because even after the defensive CB manoeuvres continue the strength is mostly priced, and late buyers are underestimating that. The nucleus of the move comes...
📌 Buyers have a good position here, because it is unlikely that sellers can manage to force a decision at the stops below 2.47x. But this somewhat clumsy setup creates some difficulties of its own. The right play here is to ride the pig in BTC which will expose the topside across ETH, EOS, LTC and a few other major cryptos still holding on. The struggle to...
I love it when BTC goes for a walk.... cheap cheap coins on sale here with buyers back from their vacation. Moreover they have their eyes on the $12,000 highs which they seem too fancy. 📍 And here for a change of scenery we shall dig into the LT macro chart. The multi year battlefield adds all kinds of clarity for our attack, buyers want to load the lows and...
In the realm of 2020, the struggle for freedom is identical to the struggle to shake off the latest resistance which is still bothering us, and for that reason our problem is reduced to a timing problem . 📌 We are going to dig deeper into the concept of liquidity warfare, as applied to that of positional game theory, as applied to swing trading. The attack is...
📌 The best move, since the idea of Eurobonds and an early development of the rally is to continue working against structural dollar weakness. The +/- 200 tick pullback from 1.20xx highs in EURUSD to current levels is an attractive level for us to start adding bullish exposure. As will become clear, buyers are in full control on the macro direction and sharp...
📌 Exchanging A quick chart update here for today's flow which is essentially intended to cast some light over No-deal Brexit motives. In all cases, losing market access is a bad idea in the short-term and particularly when done frantically. The apparently desirable opportunity to cause maximum damage from Downing Street with NDB is playing an important role...
📌 Yields are clearly hesitant to subscribe to the V shapers in Global Equities. An important observation in an extraordinarily difficult trading environment. The 0.90% - 0.50% range is clearly defined and from time to time we have had to get involved with a gentle grin and attempt to play both sides. The 0.50% lows are 🔑 for this battlefield, as long as...
📌 UK Equities remain vulnerable with Brexit & Covid in play. (Similar representation for those tracking the moves in S&P, NQ, DJIA and etc...) (1) Firstly challenge the view that Rishi's stimulus produces an immediate effect and anything more than a spring mattress; the furlough scheme is incredibly expensive and weighing heavy despite being totally...
📍 This chart update comes from the ' Alpha Protocol - Seeking Immediate Extraction ' The cramped inversion should aways be considered the end game of an economic cycle. But of course we will get the v shapers and naysayers who obliges that stonks only go up. The space available to operate against the Robinhood army is becoming more flexible. Sharp speculators are...
Heading into the office this morning to find Cryptos stronger after a holiday weekend. BTCUSD is now less focused on risk and finding more USD devaluation players getting involved. With all of the weaker summer seasonalities behind us, it is pragmatic for players to look for value in scarcity. The long-term macro chart constitutes a formidable comfort; the...
I am certain that in the coming years, the lack of confidence in the public sector is going to continue falling and stopping this train is extraordinarily difficult. You should also note that the position in BTC (which is itching to move higher) is now operating with a successful halving and in a world where Keynsian economics seeks salvation. In this game, the...
📌 What we are trading here is an event risk play. This swing illustrated combining both ADP and NFP prints. It is also characteristic for the fearlessness with which USD sellers can to a certain point neglect their own weakness. The loonie with some broad based USD profit taking as widely expected after clearing initial targets. I am looking to recycle USDCAD...
📌 In spite of the summer lull, EURUSD continue to hold and buyers are threatening to win the 1.20xx handles. Sharp speculators understood the powerful attacking force of debt mutualisation, but the icing on the cake comes from Fed artificially flushing USD. The king continues its march lower. To maintain the buy side in EURUSD is pragmatic. Any direct...
