📌 An important exchange here for Gold as late unaware buyers begin to go overboard on position length and combination of over expression. Sellers on the other hand are aiming for a pullback towards soft and strong support zones at +/- 1750 and +/- 1550. I managed to carry out a deeply laid plan since 2018, although it could easily have been refuted since sellers...
📌 A quiet few weeks and enjoying the last few days of summer before things get very active in markets for the rest of the year and into 2021. Global Equity buyers received their reward for their braveness play: overshoots are a weakness. See diagram below. The mysterious 2650 lows were held from the Giant Panda (PBOC), when retail threatened the...
Commodity currencies reached the 🔑 value levels to load for this final leg down in risk. As mentioned here last week 0.62xx was the level to load in AUDUSD and NZDUSD. I also loaded an entire short CAD portfolio with USDCAD testing the 1.395x outguessing a negative outcome tomorrow. In best case scenario we will see a ‘handshake’ which wont be enough to offset...
So much for the round of chart updates...@ridethepig has been taking some time off this summer to prepare for a very busy September onwards. 📌 NZDJPY retrace swing is running out steam at the 69.9x / 70.0x highs. While risk remains in the background despite the political fairy-dust, the urge to park capital in the Yen has been maintained but for how much...
EURGBP finding a bid from 0.900x as widely expected since earlier in the month. Here actively adding longs on the pullback for a move towards 0.915x highs. Little Britain are still nowhere near out of the woods yet with the 'oven ready’ Brexit still to come later this year. For those wondering why not Cable? It’s very tough to time a bottom in the dollar...
📍 The best move, since the highs are defended from the earlier developments is not really to get into the heart of the issue. Rather we need to discuss the configuration and how to build the trade around the freefall. LYV (Live Nation Entertainment, Inc.) is particularly exposed to pockets of further lockdowns which we are already starting to see in some states....
📌 A timely update to the NMR BTC chart after almost completing the retrace. Although AUM is still under 150m, it only highlights how undervalued NMR is. The number of stakers doubled since Q12020 from 300 to 600 and total stakes are now up to +/- $3.5M. The foundations are strong and in this position we are going to overprotect the support as follows: ...
The control belongs to buyers no matter whether it is your bias to fade this move or continue riding the pig. It is Buyer's move and they are playing to damage their opposition with much effect. The capitulation from sellers here will be brutal as we start to see the liquidity trap. The buyers are rushing to capture an appropriate amount of safety and...
📌 Here we have a relatively straight forward move in play. After EUR held the lows buyers can follow through; true, clearly sellers are not in control and failed to obtain the powerful ABC sequence main target. In other words... buyers are aggressive, GBP exposure would be better off elsewhere. The mobility of UK market access will contract (at least in the...
A quick update here for those tracking the entire swing in Dollar: It would be more natural to develop in this structure with a test of 99, since the impulsive sequence (if it is such) must eventually test 92.92 to complete the move. To keep up the pressure on USD the social focus will instead switch towards Atlanta and health focus on virus cases which sadly...
Rationale 📌 What we are trading here is dangerous and involves an obligation to bet against the UK economy. What has worth in life is worth risking for. By stepping against the flow here you are staying clear of over extension, and trapping unaware retailers. It is wise to jump the gun at these levels with excellent r:r. Be bold with the swing as 118 acts like...
⚡️ GBPCAD Fast Flows Here we are trading the breakdown in GBPCAD, with the possible intention of adding on momentum. The question is whether Seller's position is strong enough to put up with such a hammer? Possible similar moves to the previous crash which we traded live: By losing yesterday's lows in GBPCAD, buyers defeat will be seen and the combination...
📍 Equity Liquidations Feb/March 2020 Gold buyers now hold a solid position, since the break of 1750 our opposition has been trying to get blood from a stone. The solidity behind the bull case has been so strong to date and it shows in itself the fact that 'everything is not roses' despite how the politicians and media sell re-openings and activity data. ...
⚡️ ETH Fast Flows... A very technical picture here... The traditional rule for BTC and other major cryptos, when the tide rises all boats rise. In order for this to be successful, the terrain on which we move forward must somehow be positive for Crypto as a whole. The characteristics of confidence in public assets is diminishing, various capital movements are...
The "hanging" candle The problem is as follows: If the only way to reach risk-on in and remove social distancing is either via a vaccine (most preferred option although not really in scope till 2021) or further extreme lockdown measures (as you all know extremely costly and damaging to the monetary side) to completely remove the virus from circulation. With...
Breakouts and impulsive swings 📌 @ridethepig June Map Buyers had the move and played to exchange at the key support lows, which despite the length of compression can also be expressed in an impulsive breakup in no other terms than: Buyers in full control and gunning to take out the highs in the compression range. I managed to carry out the...
📌 Working in public has given us a live example of Volatility expanding in times of a crisis. Here it is usually a swing recap for those following. As you will remember we made good use of the initial tempo in the retreat : The show must go on... in came buyers with the counter attack and no surprises on the timing, covid was simply the trigger. ...
📌 Peloton One of the aspects of consumer behaviour that has changed the most over the past few months has been the approach to fitness and home-enablers. As we introduced a deep and accurate buy approach it helped that Fed and other CB's helped to raise the bar even higher with their ambitious and methodical (right...) approaches. So, as with many other...
