The number of available entries in ETH, to a certain extent compensates those short-term speculators as we can get this to $300.00 relatively quickly with no more protection. => As the saying goes.. ' A rising tide lifts all boats ' This illustrates the play on the BTC wings. It is also characteristic for the fearless to generate alpha and neglect sellers...
📌 A short update here for those tracking USDKRW ... It has been a very slippery pig since the last update: Here buyers stormed into control and chose to occupy the bid protecting 1140 via Covid flows. The relieving of this profit taking has become a bit more enterprising possibly via the idiosyncratic spike in cases for the U.S. The next moves are cooked...
For this one we are talking about an extremely disruptive swing that will continue to cause high beta FX outflows in the immediate term. The nice problem we have on our hands with this, is that we are now entering into a new long-term bullish trend for AUDUSD. So we 'know' this pullback will have a minimum flow towards the 0.650x handle before bulls have to deal...
This looks like the real deal... the trip we are planning for Gold here should be carefully mapped before making the play. 📍 If possible make use of the ' momentum ' Entice the sellers with obstacles inside 1820-1810 rage (a temporary stopover to collect energy). All that before playing the impulsive manoeuvre. Compare also this diagram: For its own sake,...
📌 The buyers constitute a formidable opponent holding the breakup and putting sellers out of action. The moves are ready, to fend off another wave of risk looks impossible now and Turkey will suffer a major hammer that may be unendurable for local banks. A break above 7.20xx will unlock the widely track 7.80xx since last year. If buyers hold (and it looks...
On the UK side, we are still on track for a NDB and loss of market access in the short-term. As long as the June highs are holding at 1.281x then I favour the sell-side, watch for 1.252x and 1.228x below as we enter into the ‘eye of the storm’. For those in EURGBP a simple leg from 0.900x => 0.913x is in play to kill the week.
🔸 China Macro Flows 🔸 The point of this configuration is that CNH is influencing the currency, equity and commodity board that can be seen in AUDUSD, NZDUSD, OIL, Gold and everything in-between...USD's cannot make any use of the Yuan devaluation and this has been a threat ever since Saudi unlocked the CNY oil contract. For those tracking the Long-term Macro...
Here we go for another round of updates to the Oil chart... 📍 Oil TBC....
🔸 An 'ingenious' saving move from Europe and finally they are able to get debt mutualisation through. It will be very bullish for EURUSD in the Medium and Long term horizons, although the ST will become a lot more cloudy via Covid as we enter into the Autumn / Winter for the Northern Hemisphere. I prefer to play EUR on the crosses and vs. GBP is a no-brainer...
Retail activity and strength is starting to transition towards excitement and complacency, when this happens Equities should be sold with confidence for a retest of the March lows. 📍 Here the following line appears the cleanest: 3240/50 => 2640/50 => 2060/70 and Sellers are not particularly favourable. The retail crowd are piling into longs and even some of the...
On the GBP side, all quiet on Brexit news with cable and EURGBP stuck within tight ranges defined last week. Here actively selling cable with the European close at 1.262x, risk is entering back into the picture via virus anxiety we will see USD better bid than it 'should' be. I suspect we will have BOE on the wires at some point later in the week talking down the...
Ok let's get started with the next round of important chart packs and fundamental updates 📍 On the fundamental side in USDMXN - as strange as it sounds all eyes are on the other side of the Atlantic. Once again politics in Europe is getting in the way, with discussions on the recovery fund coming to a close this weekend and looking like we are going to see this...
📍 The Pinned Buyer => The move lower is justified, since Equities at these levels are as good as forced. After Fed and other CB intervention has stopped, it will inspire anything but confidence. => So a health crisis, thirsting for a vaccine allowed Equities to outperform last Q as a haven for the bizarre 'Keynesian stimulus'. The correct move was a...
📍 RBNZ formula So what are we trading here? In this position it would be an obvious mistake to not acknowledge risk sentiment worsening over the weekend as cases continue to escalate, clearly the market is exposed to the storm (that is to say the series of localised lockdowns are a done-deal, the only question remains whether it becomes more widespread). On...
📌 The point of this configuration is that the highs have been lost, since the effectiveness (right..) of the stimulus and the extension above that has NOTHING to do with fundamental or economic reality. This influence can be seen in DAX which cannot make use of the highs. Secondly, there is the threat of Covid and Brexit. In other worst, the risk which triggered...
📌 In spite of the overshoots to the downside, what we are trading here is a sacrifice... the 'sad tale of the last seller'. I love it when sellers go overboard. Threatening to breakdown, without realising the RBNZ has opened the August window for more free money and NZD devaluation via purchases. The euro occupies the throne in G10 which the dollar has...
📍 The following position comes after a temporary concession break of 0.90x strong support. After sellers came crumbs away the first time, buyers felt at liberty to allow the breach and trap more on the counterplay. The mysterious trap is coming and buyers wish to occupy the 0.90xx handle rather fast to rule out any cheap entries. At the right moment, we can...
📍 In the realm of Tesla, patience is sustained courage although the struggle for valuation is evident. The overstretched manoeuvre is identical to the struggle which we traded earlier in the year. It is obvious for any of those that have studied the Tesla supply chain that outlooks and expectations at current valuations are unrealistic. What is surprising, is...
