📍 The main function of the VIX appears to be miles ahead of the relevant flows. In this sense, it itself tends to be mobile. And yet (for it has great vitality!) it is not rare to witness it display considerable activity. Namely: 1️⃣ From the initial ' Swing the Vix into Fed and Q close ' the Vix was prepared . 2️⃣ A certain elasticity, which shows itself in...
I have been looking to position for the next chapter of risk flows via Gold, although it's proven expensive to get back in after the wide consolidation. 📍 On the technicals we are tracking for a break above the highs to unlock a clean sweep towards $1900! It would be a very easy move and can happen in a matter of sessions as there will be no more sellers...
We are entering into short-term technical flows for the weekly closing range after Fed flows come to an end. The growing concerns over rising virus cases will skyrocket over this weekend, expecting a flooding of negative news from mainstream media which will put Western European countries back into the crosshairs. For the technicals, SEK is trading at a very...
📍 A highly interesting move for BTC would be followed by triumphal progress at the $9,000 lows again... The main feature of interest to me is the lows played on 11th and 15th June. It has a strong bid as a barrier and was well backed up, by the 2nd June lows. The next climax to the attack can begin over the coming sessions, what we need to be asking...
📍 Road to mastering 1.150x of Eurobonds play (schematic representation of the macro swing) 1️⃣ Counter the false conception that every single risk-off flow has to produce an immediate USD effect; waiting moves and underlying MT / LT game changer positioning on the macro front are also totally justified now that Europe are making steps towards mutualising...
The following diagram illustrates the breakup of a globalisation advance: Since the retrace in VIX has found a hard floor into the 25 lows, we may characterise the advance as an endgame for our economic cycle purposes. Now the erroneous nature of Volatility advancing can be seen. The effect of demobilising the consumer will weigh heavy on Equities, not...
📍 The panic leg here is because we are reaching the endgame in the economic cycle. There is a risk of Turkish banks defaulting on this leg so watch-out for any exposure to specific sectors. If the operation demonstrated is a successful attack, then we have the final ✅ for those trading the macro move called last year: EM FX looks extremely vulnerable for any...
Here the consolidation is condemned to break for the common good, as a diversionary sacrifice. Covid cases will act as the catalyst undoubtedly. The question is only and above all when? For those tracking the breakout momentum is much more on the buyers side, clearly defined jurisdictions are on both sides of the map... As a quick cheatsheet: Strong Support...
📌 This diagram portrays the final stages in the economic cycle which I called in 2019. The position arose after Equities began extending beyond reality; all sellers needed was an intending cause. The construct of the ingredients here are clear and simple, after Fed cleared the runway till 2022 you can see the risk coming out of bonds. Of course now it...
A highly interesting move, the necessary preparation for the counter swing. Sellers are aiming to complete the ABC sequence and ideally sweep the lows into 2020 Elections. The main feature of interest to us is the role played by the latest protests and virus cases ticking higher. A "second wave" will act as another strong post / blockader between consumer...
The long run positional struggle for buyers which comes from their immobility to find positives in the Brexit debacle. It is extremely important to note the coming years of UK growth are harmed via the presence of protectionism, the fundamentals have widely been discussed here: With Brexit headlines entering back into play, focus will shift towards NDB...
So much for the 5th wave... the formulation has truncated after the payrolls report. This is an example of an erroneous freeing. In similar patterns, the rebound will translate in a 5 wave impulsive sequence which is somewhat cramped after the knee-jerk reaction from covid. The appropriate positional response to the lows here is to ride the pig , what we are...
📍 Who's in Control? - Sellers clearly have the luxury of momentum on the recent breakdown, advancing here too fast would be an immediate mistake since after that buyers will lose faith and start to cover. The correct procedure will be a time-consuming chop inside the 25,000 - 23,000 range to shake out those travelling Robinhood crowd. We have the weapon of...
Eyes on UMich today. Sentiment remains awful out there despite how talking heads are selling re-openings to the masses. A very dovish Fed has forced Global Equities to play ball and marked a meaningful top across risk markets. VIX exploding higher after testing 🔑 25.0x support and implying the next move coming is a lot more sinister. This ST swing does not change...
📍 Overview This chart comes after a conversation with @Alamakota. Brexit move played in this game was triggered in Jun 2016, you will notice on the Q chart how four years after buyers demonstrated a full retrace, before sellers rejected the highs and there we have the winning move. The UK is entering into the house of economic bondage in the ST and MT. Covid has...
A timely update to the EURSEK chart with 2020 flows entering into play as widely anticipated. Lets start by reviewing the concerning Macro Map in the diagram: In the longer term, positional swings come down to a struggle between patience on the one hand and greed tendencies on the other. In this all-encompassing battle, economic strategy, though important in...
Clearly all the action has been in EURCHF after the enormous bids that came through into euro yesterday. Large macro players are liking what they hear from ECB and the Commission which is setting the stage for the EURCHF short-covering. The key divergence can be seen in USDCHF breaking down, this isn't a CHF driven move but rather from the USD weakness. I am...
We shall open the chapter on AUD with the Monthly chart and as usual work our way down towards the inner time frames. The aim for the frontal attack here comes with a double whammy from USD devaluation and Commodity appreciation. AUD buyers are aiming to carry out the deeply laid plan (although it was almost refuted after the Covid crisis) since the macro flows...
