A good time to update the USDJPY chart as things are changing very quickly. Here you will notice risk-sentiment starting to take another turn for the worse, meaning we are again entering into a very advanced playing field and a short-term nimble approach is pragmatic and necessary to survive at these levels. The relentless stream of bad news on the virus front...
After a ruthless and cunning retrace from politicians and central bank talking heads, this piercing rally is coming to an end after reaching the full retrace target at 1250. Buyers, who would like to occupy the jurisdiction above have tried to do so in a crafty way (since the typical path looks out of the question as long as the world remains in lockdown); they...
The OPEC theatre was an event for the masses, attended by unimaginable liquidity. Packed into enormous press conferences and expensive photoshoots so that the masses would be amused by the raucous discourse or moved by the collaboration. The plot seemed to contain the essence of desperation from Trump, in its concentrated and dramatic form all in attempt of saving...
The aim of this idea is to build a timeless classic marking the beginning of the next leg in the economic cycle. No more, no less.
In December of 2019 , one of the most successful cable short position was dealt in the UK election business which invited an "official" but "highly confidential" swing that we traded live here with the confirmation of Brexit via Johnson, and then the most extreme demand shock caused a nosedive in cable via Covid-19, which allowed the lows to do damage: The...
An important chart update for all early and late cycle players, the lows in US10Y Yields are not yet locked and this is holding the window open for a final leg to the downside cooking in Global Equities and risk markets. A lot of buying interest in bonds towards 0.85 / 1.00 highs which will be enough to keep the downtrend in pay. I am looking for a full ABC...
After sweeping the highs, which was not so difficult with its positional issues, this leg should appear all too easy. Well this may lead you to ask some important questions around how a pinned high can be called into question so confidently, because it is possible to build one' whole swing around resistance/support, but around a pinned high? This requires an...
Limited coverage lately as @ridethepig is spending more time on calls these days than in my entire career. Trying to get a sense of productivity, expectations and capital structures before making further comments. On the UK side, the mood is low and with PM Johnson still in ICU it does not look good. All rallies should be sold in cable towards the highs in the...
Recognise that this demand for USD is squeezing USDTRY into the secondary macro swing targets at 6.60xx. This is completely inline with the forecasts and all those in leveraged positions are inclined to take profits. We are not out of the woods (yet) and large hands will continue to buy dips in USDTRY as long as we remain in risk-off flows. As widely...
A good time to kickstart a round of chart updates here...the underlying infrastructure in Europe will be fixed, from a monetary perspective eurobonds will be the only way to save the currency and covid-19 has unlocked Germany one more time. Although we are starting to clear the top of the curve in places like Italy and NY to a lot lesser extent, there is (sadly) a...
Getting our bearings... If a retrace swing is checked in its advance only by opposing forces, waiting for sentiment to improve will mean you have missed out on a lot of the bounce. There is the recognition that when a crash like this happens, we must sacrifice a part of our own effectiveness just to help keep an eye on it, outguessing the lows is an advanced...
On the UK side, very little to update on the fundamental side. I am tracking the GBPUSD rally closely at these levels into 1.195x/1.20xx resistance as a good area to fade with targets towards the lows in the range at 1.15xx support and 1.05xx. The main issue is coming from the lack of liquidity meaning its difficult to get much size on. For those tracking...
Eyes on EURUSD this morning as we enter into M and Q end rebalancing to put the 🍒 on top (as if there is not already enough in play). A healthy pullback towards 1.097x is enough to draw sellers back in and makes me lean towards playing another leg towards the downside with next 🔑 support located at 1.05xx handle lows. There will be fresh supply at current levels...
This swing illustrates my idea of the "two jurisdictions" in a particularly striking fashion. As though playing at odds, to use the infamous expression. By this I mean the choice of a variation, which you yourself do not necessarily have to consider a good one. The premise consists of setting your opponent a difficult problem, or distraction. And Gold is the...
Here we go with a round of Macro chart updates, the decline is starting to run out of steam as we enter into support. The initial bounce does not nullify the decline we have seen over the past four years, however it wields influence with 2021 and beyond. The parallel channel we will use for reference technically to define clearly the jurisdictions on both sides....
To put it into context first it is likely we are in the 4th wave of a multi decade sequence. This means that the flow for wave 4 is going to retrace towards 23.6% of the impulsive wave 3. Very simply from the technical side, 9516 - 8128 are both in play with the global slowdown. Here expecting Indian Equities to remain under pressure. Best of luck!
A Vix swing, which did not require "majority" or "consensus", rolled forward under the noses of retail and even some of the larger macro hands. It advanced incredibly far reaching a high of 84.8 ... Don't be a dick for a tick !!! Finally there is an opportunity to clear all targets in the breakthrough. As an example of this, let us turn to the well-know chart ...
You can smell the struggle for buyers in the air, the retrace should first be faded at the next technical breakdown as smart money insists on elimination of the base. After the attack, we can start to look at forming a new base, rinse and repeat! If you wish to undermine construction, you naturally will not make it in this game and likely not as an architect...
