Negative rates are finally here for the US with the 6mo t-bill ticking below -2bps (feed is slightly delayed here). Simply meaning that you will now need to pay the US government for 6mo cash deposits. This is the only way they can continue in the "end game" strategy. It is a well known phenomenon that the US 2's 5's was ringing alarm bells last year , those...
A good time to review the NMR chart almost a Quarter after ErasureCon... For those who attended you will know it was a major game changer with Numeraire introducing censorship resistant file sharing is here with Erasure (a decentralised data market with an immutable ledger). This is a new chapter for NMR with one of the few Crypto's with an established use case. ...
Here we are tracking the continuation of the move down in Oil. On the demand side, manufacturing is starting to slow and we are outguessing signs of the effects on the demand side. Equities wont be able to hold Oil up for too much longer, this is starting to look clearer by the day. Prices will have to fall to offset the move in demand, once this starts...
Divergence in AUD and NZD beginning to widen as large hands dump AUD and pile into NZD. Cases are relatively low in NZ which will keep the RBNZ from going negative, watch-out for AUDNZD breaking parity in the coming sessions. The analysis of the starting position shows us the slingshot is ready to conduct a flanking manoeuvre, but also a quick-witted seller: the...
NZD is moving as collateral with AUD, those following the previous AUDCNH idea will know this is no less imaginative. New Zealand is exposed to a short-circuit in Chinese supply chains leaving it vulnerable to a slowdown in China via coronavirus. On the monetary side, RBNZ has been notably quiet around the impact from the virus. The CB will not be able to hide...
We can start to look for single stock opportunities as behavioural economics changes as a result of the Coronavirus impact. We are talking about a dramatic loss in confidence, global OCD patient numbers are ticking higher which btw itself from time-to-time be a very useful indicator. We are talking about an outbreak which has triggered volatility across the...
(1) The relationship between "macro flows" and "restraint" The former encourages plans from our opponent by enticing them into positions. What does it mean: suffering from the sad case of the last buyer? The concept of static and dynamic weaknesses. When it becomes appropriate to undo our opponents structure? Restraint can be imagined without the...
A bloodbath across most of Asia with SHCOMP managing to hold via PBOC intervention. Actively sold the Tokyo close as red alerts have been triggered across Global EQ Index. Those familiar with the current technical flows we are tracking will remember the PBOC dip; it was a classic example of CB intervention in attempt to stop the bleeding. The issue is that...
Until this advanced coronavirus move was played, the flow had been relatively straight-forward, a smooth transition of the Titanic turning was more an ideal than reality. This corresponds to the process I have remarked on, that the US face a choice between a weaker USD or a weaker Equity market. The lack of restraint from Powell gives way to a mechanical swing...
The struggle for democracy is being carried out and as long as Erdogan remains at the helm there is only one direction for TRY. Autocrats are typically sticky in nature and difficult to remove, the attack should first be aimed at the currency which will be the base of the capitulation. Attacking the 7.8 will break local bank and looks imminent as markets receive...
Gold undershooting at the 2012 highs are failing to clear 1700 by crumbs was screaming signals that the market was exhausted, and that it would take more than a coronavirus pandemic to move higher. Notice the size of the wick with all the profit taking place it produced a bearish monthly (and weekly) pattern: The handbrakes have been pulled, Central Banks are...
AUD and NZD suffered another session of heavy selling and marked fresh lows - the move was mostly algo driven to run stops and help clean the map for dividend season. Happy to sit short and look to add from higher levels. The USD demand remains supported but given that it we are approaching dividend season, remember, there will be strong local AUD demand inside...
A very busy few weeks in markets, finally @ridethepig with some spare time for a whole round of chart updates across the FX board and beyond. On the monetary side, a whole new raft of FED cutting expectations entered the room via coronavirus impact leg on Equities and forced the FED into a surprise -50bps cut. Markets are sticking the knife in and keeping more...
This is a quick update to do with pricing in rates, or what's already priced in rate market ... I wont try my best to keep it short and sweet. I have been receiving many PM's and comments around how do we know when the Fed cuts are fully priced in? For example the -50bps that the market forced earlier in the week...everybody knew they were coming, they just...
An insane move across Yields with historic outflows, I am expecting some relief over the coming weeks but we the lows are still open for a 5th wave sequence. This target will worryingly come into play at 0.20x! We have intentionally covered the Credit Spreads together here in order to see what is "challenging" in the US economy: Such compensation is...
The pair is performing with little trouble for sellers, it has been absolutely hammered as Global Equities and Yields come under further pressure via Coronavirus impact. After a conversation with @FT_Lexicon we can discuss the importance of flanking and comparing with EURCHF is vital here, we can realise why there is not the same room for SNB intervention as there...
As confidence in CBs monetary system begins to collapse we are going to see strong demand for BTC and other major cryptos. Here tracking a breakup back to the highs after the recent Fed flop. Powell capitulating and surprising markets with a rate cut which helped risk assets although the caveat was panic. Markets are rightfully questioning what role monetary...
A playable break here in euro, with a more solid resistance found at 1.124x which seems to be the next target for buyers. Now DAX sellers are entering back into the picture which will keep EUR in bid and help us corner our opponent up slowly before a momentum break, though this attempt could be better seen in German Equities: The position which is reached is...
