Powell capitulating and surprising markets with a rate cut which helped euro crack the 1.12 handle. After a nice pullback we are right back to the starting point in time for the NY session. The drivers remain the same for now, (i) bearish on risk via virus impact, while (ii) bullish on risk via Sanders fading into the distance provides the pullbacks. The...
As those following the latest Macro charts in Euro will know, the philosophy of EUR finding a strong bid will constitute good criteria for the devaluation of German Equities and rule out any possibility of setting new all time highs. This is crunching time for the Fiscal side in Europe, if Germany start to use the fiscal side then the logical follow up is EUR...
For risk markets, historic times with US10Y breaking through 1.00, the 50bp cut is really sends ⚠️ signals that things are not as healthy as they made out as ECB insist they have no room to follow the Fed. Buckle up and remain defensive guys, I am adding USDJPY shorts on the day with targets 106.9x and 106.5x below. Stops needed to be above 107.9x. For those...
Coronavirus headlines continue to drive the market, I don't see how any expansionary monetary policy will help the situation. Fed cutting rates is undermining global CBs, they will do anything it takes to stop the bleeding in Equity markets and the capitulation was very telling. We can comfortably lean on the bullish drivers for Crypto as ETH moves as collateral...
Fed rate cuts taking full control of the FX board as virus disruptions start to fade - it's time to go shopping in G10 and EM FX and the intervention policies will provide some USD relief. Here looking for a rebound into previous ranges in USDRUB as a pro-cyclical currency. A test of the previous range we were trading looks around the corner: The spread of...
A short update here essentially with one intention to shed some light over the pending impulsive wave for Numeraire. Bulls wish to occupy the retrace, a swing in order to deliver; but if he tries to crack resistance at 99.000 bears have time to prevent him doing so. So the correct move here is loading on the retrace into our loading zone, leading sellers into...
Risk markets are starting to form a temporary floor via BOJ stepping in and suture the wound. Volatility is set to remain high for the coming days, Asian stocks finding a bid from the usual dip buyers while USDJPY has started to bounce from last week’s move. Looking to sell any rallies into 109.2x as we have not seen the end of the storm in currencies yet. ...
The euro finding more demand overnight with Italy behaving and looking for help on the fiscal side. Risk markets are cooking a s/t rebound via co-ordinated global policy intervention; by no means is this the end of the virus but the underlying negative tone we have been witnessing across mainstream media is starting to soften this week. Global Central Bank...
Even BTC could not avoid the exodus from risk last week. Positioning isn't the problem in this case as the market is back to Jan levels, a clean sweep of the soft hands to reset play ahead of the halving ... We can expect to see a broad recovery of Crypto this week on the back of co-ordinated CB policy intervention, I still favour trading BTC from the long...
What a terrible week for Cryptos. Markets were in the mood to get out of any high beta positions, XRP was no exception. We also had to contend with month-end portfolio rebalances and excess USD demand. The complete retrace towards 0.25 - 0.24 has led to a series of stops and XRPUSD has managed to find a fresh bid. Central Banks are going to provide respite this...
Eyes on the technical breakdown in CADNOK to kickstart the week, a few important updates to make here as intervention begins globally from Central Banks and OPEC. For those tracking Oil you will know we got the massive meltdown that we have been expecting in the chart-pack since last year: I am tracking a much larger than expected cut from OPEC at...
A major breakdown ahead of the open as markets catch up to the virus disruptions. AUD and global trade are set to suffer for sometime, it will take a brave man to step against this flow. On the monetary side, RBA tee'd up a rate cut in April with another in Q3 on the cards. Housing has already done the heavy lifting, will need A LOT more help from elsewhere to...
Here we go for a round of important chart update on the FX, Commodity and Equity board... I do not subscribe to the idea of this being the start of the euro reserve currency rally which we were tracking earlier in the year that failed from the Coronavirus short-circuit, although it is certainly moving with speed. Remember we have month end flows in play now too...
I will try to keep this one relatively short, a very important update to the German 10-year benchmark yield. This is one to track as it is coming after a fresh attempt of a breakdown in EURUSD for the NY open. Here we can see important macro forces in play with extreme risk on the radar via Coronavirus with large sharks being forced to reposition and rebalance...
A fresh round of poll updates from Germany with CDU/Green coalition in play: => CDU/CSU-EPP: 28% => GRÜNE-G/EFA: 23% => SPD-S&D: 12% => AfD-ID: 11% (-1) => LINKE-LEFT: 9% => FDP-RE: 9% We are marking the highs as widely mentioned previously in the 2020 Dax Macro Map: Markets are unable to shrug off risk from Coronavirus and we are spreading into...
On the macro chart we are still chopping around the same lows that will mark the ending of a currency cycle alongside a turn in commodities. The coronavirus expectation and impact legs are short-circuiting the reflationary trade that markets were so eager to jump on board with towards the back-end of 2019. Sadly numbers outside of China keep growing and...
On the risk side, US10Y bouncing from the lows while Global Equities attempt to form a s/t floor. Central Bank co-ordinated policy is only a matter of time, markets have forced FED, ECB, BOC, BOJ, BOE and everything in-between to kiss the hand and keep rate cuts on the table. JPY is itching to resume dancing the same rhythm but given USD demand via month end...
Here we go for another important NY session … EURUSD holding the 🔑 1.09xx test of resistance ahead of the open as expected. Markets notably anxious of further outbreaks which (sadly) seems unavoidable now. I spotted a lot of euro supply from corporates this morning. Remaining short is perfectly reasonable assuming the current highs hold this PM, targets are...
